X FIPS Geography.x TotalPop PovertyRate BlackPop BlackPovertyRate AsianPop 1 15 100820 Alabaster city, Alabama 30613 11.1 4061 11.6 124 2 36 1021200 Dover city, Delaware 32475 19.0 13058 24.5 781 3 58 103076 Auburn city, Alabama 52721 31.3 9355 38.6 3569 4 119 107000 Birmingham city, Alabama 205048 31.0 152536 34.1 1999 5 126 1077580 Wilmington city, Delaware 68801 26.1 38280 32.6 746 6 173 1150000 Washington city, District of Columbia 599620 18.2 300482 26.5 20585 AsianPoverty HispanicPop HispanicPoverty WhitePop WhitePovertyRate PercentBachelor.s State..FIPS. 1 0.0 3524 47.9 22381 5.4 33.99256 1 2 22.2 2898 22.6 14949 12.1 29.00829 10 3 21.3 2114 25.9 36983 30.8 60.24547 1 4 14.3 7239 38.4 41665 19.1 23.42096 1 5 7.9 9596 34.2 19692 10.2 26.35247 10 6 16.1 60874 17.1 208411 7.4 54.01759 11 Place..FIPS. Area.Name SqMiles tot.protests tot.attend deaths deaths_unarmed deaths_unarmed_black 1 820 Alabaster 23.400 0 0 0 0 0 2 21200 Dover 23.148 0 0 0 0 0 3 3076 Auburn 56.807 0 0 0 0 0 4 7000 Birmingham 149.236 4 112 2 0 0 5 77580 Wilmington 10.955 0 0 1 1 1 6 50000 Washington 61.095 22 48983 8 0 0 deaths_armed_black deaths_black deaths_protestyear deaths_protestyear_unarmed X.x NAACPyears 1 0 0 0 0 NA 0 2 0 0 1 1 162 4 3 0 0 0 0 NA 0 4 2 2 2 0 3 10 5 0 1 0 0 165 15 6 5 5 3 0 166 26 MayorPartisanship blackmayor FIPS_PLACE dem rep dem_share FIPS_ST X.y pop hbcu hbcu2 crime deathduring 1 R 0 820 3431 9814 25.90411 1 NA 0 0 0 0 0 2 D 0 21200 9741 5243 65.00934 10 307 5000 1 1 0 1 3 R 0 3076 8617 12129 41.53572 1 3 30000 0 0 0 0 4 D 1 7000 88787 17486 83.54615 1 5 17500 0 0 1 0 5 D 1 77580 27545 3541 88.60902 10 310 7500 0 0 1 0 6 D 1 NA NA NA NA NA 312 95000 2 1 1 0 per_ba Per_Black pop.density collegeenrollpc mayorrep unarmed_deaths_pc deaths_pc unarmed_deaths_black_pc 1 33.99256 13.26561 1308.2479 0.000000 1 0.0000000 0.00000000 0.0000000 2 29.00829 40.20939 1402.9290 15.396459 0 0.0000000 0.00000000 0.0000000 3 60.24547 17.74435 928.0722 56.903321 1 0.0000000 0.00000000 0.0000000 4 23.42096 74.39039 1373.9848 8.534587 0 0.0000000 0.09753814 0.0000000 5 26.35247 55.63873 6280.3286 10.901004 0 0.1453467 0.14534672 0.1453467 6 54.01759 50.11207 9814.5511 15.843367 0 0.0000000 0.13341783 0.0000000 deaths_black_pc anyprotests 1 0.00000000 0 2 0.00000000 0 3 0.00000000 0 4 0.09753814 1 5 0.14534672 0 6 0.08338614 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 15 16 17 19 22 27 32 50 1173 94 30 16 14 7 4 2 3 1 2 2 3 2 1 2 1 1 1 Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.496 0.000 50.000 [1] 6.35326 NULL [1] 0.4189191 Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. 0.1042 2.3777 6.5103 12.8523 17.2170 92.5474 Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. 0.00 13.15 22.90 24.16 33.85 88.10 Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. 3.989 20.667 29.110 32.125 41.022 82.603 Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. 0.000 0.000 0.000 7.062 7.771 131.884 Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. NA's 7.444 47.148 57.867 58.471 69.210 98.508 115 Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.8514 1.0000 37.0000 Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.06597 0.10647 1.42544 Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2494 0.0000 16.0000 Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.01607 0.00000 0.66425 Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.496 0.000 50.000 0 1 1173 186 [1] 674 X FIPS Geography.x TotalPop PovertyRate BlackPop BlackPovertyRate AsianPop AsianPoverty 598 14439 3651000 New York city, New York 8219906 20.6 2028266 23.2 1095334 20.3 HispanicPop HispanicPoverty WhitePop WhitePovertyRate PercentBachelor.s State..FIPS. Place..FIPS. Area.Name 598 2376798 28.9 2682684 12.5 35.19234 36 51000 New York SqMiles tot.protests tot.attend deaths deaths_unarmed deaths_unarmed_black deaths_armed_black deaths_black 598 303.374 50 50650 27 7 7 9 16 deaths_protestyear deaths_protestyear_unarmed X.x NAACPyears MayorPartisanship blackmayor FIPS_PLACE 598 17 4 730 54 D 0 51000 dem rep dem_share FIPS_ST X.y pop hbcu hbcu2 crime deathduring per_ba Per_Black pop.density 598 2058903 510502 80.13151 36 1128 416500 0 0 0 1 35.19234 24.67505 27094.96 collegeenrollpc mayorrep unarmed_deaths_pc deaths_pc unarmed_deaths_black_pc deaths_black_pc anyprotests 598 5.066968 0 0.008515912 0.03284709 0.008515912 0.01946494 1 [1] 1359 52 [1] 910 [1] 449 [1] 831 [1] 79 [1] 342 [1] 107 [1] 1201 [1] 158 [1] 1085 [1] 116 [1] 88 [1] 70 [1] 101 [1] 41 [1] 60 [1] 145 [1] 1113 [1] 873 [1] 385 [1] 800 [1] 73 [1] 313 [1] 72 [1] 1136 [1] 122 [1] 1039 [1] 97 [1] 74 [1] 48 Call: glm(formula = tot.protests ~ log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + deaths_black_pc, family = poisson(link = "log"), data = BLM30k) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -3.5533 -0.5015 -0.2959 -0.1671 5.6421 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -2.003e+01 6.325e-01 -31.661 < 2e-16 *** log(TotalPop) 1.144e+00 4.053e-02 28.218 < 2e-16 *** log(pop.density) -1.847e-01 8.747e-02 -2.112 0.034702 * Per_Black 1.221e-02 3.247e-03 3.761 0.000169 *** BlackPovertyRate 1.338e-01 2.627e-02 5.093 3.53e-07 *** I(BlackPovertyRate^2) -1.396e-03 3.976e-04 -3.511 0.000446 *** per_ba 3.941e-02 3.907e-03 10.087 < 2e-16 *** collegeenrollpc 8.342e-03 2.484e-03 3.359 0.000783 *** dem_share 4.286e-02 5.364e-03 7.990 1.35e-15 *** deaths_black_pc 3.895e+00 5.308e-01 7.338 2.16e-13 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for poisson family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 3204.60 on 1225 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 742.84 on 1216 degrees of freedom (133 observations deleted due to missingness) AIC: 1200.4 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6 Overdispersion test data: main.poisson z = 1.874, p-value = 0.03046 alternative hypothesis: true dispersion is greater than 1 sample estimates: dispersion 1.666116 Call: glm.nb(formula = tot.protests ~ log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + deaths_black_pc, data = BLM30k, link = log, init.theta = 1.685551834) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -2.3170 -0.4549 -0.2707 -0.1529 5.3090 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -2.073e+01 1.101e+00 -18.824 < 2e-16 *** log(TotalPop) 1.281e+00 7.046e-02 18.178 < 2e-16 *** log(pop.density) -3.054e-01 1.315e-01 -2.323 0.020201 * Per_Black 1.801e-02 4.864e-03 3.704 0.000212 *** BlackPovertyRate 1.283e-01 3.109e-02 4.127 3.67e-05 *** I(BlackPovertyRate^2) -1.301e-03 4.743e-04 -2.744 0.006071 ** per_ba 4.372e-02 5.381e-03 8.125 4.47e-16 *** collegeenrollpc 1.005e-02 4.073e-03 2.466 0.013657 * dem_share 4.069e-02 7.249e-03 5.613 1.98e-08 *** deaths_black_pc 2.825e+00 9.312e-01 3.034 0.002414 ** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(1.6856) family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 1943.21 on 1225 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 500.18 on 1216 degrees of freedom (133 observations deleted due to missingness) AIC: 1113.4 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1 Theta: 1.686 Std. Err.: 0.404 2 x log-likelihood: -1091.353 'log Lik.' 3.892259e-21 (df=11) Call: zeroinfl(formula = tot.protests ~ log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + deaths_black_pc, data = BLM30k) Pearson residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -2.12010 -0.28581 -0.14296 -0.06879 27.46974 Count model coefficients (poisson with log link): Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -1.554e+01 7.151e-01 -21.737 < 2e-16 *** log(TotalPop) 8.157e-01 5.181e-02 15.744 < 2e-16 *** log(pop.density) 1.050e-01 1.021e-01 1.029 0.303402 Per_Black 1.508e-03 3.813e-03 0.395 0.692532 BlackPovertyRate 9.045e-02 NA NA NA I(BlackPovertyRate^2) -8.687e-04 NA NA NA per_ba 1.728e-02 4.794e-03 3.605 0.000312 *** collegeenrollpc 3.663e-03 2.747e-03 1.334 0.182366 dem_share 3.688e-02 6.866e-03 5.371 7.84e-08 *** deaths_black_pc 3.736e+00 5.363e-01 6.967 3.24e-12 *** Zero-inflation model coefficients (binomial with logit link): Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) 11.5371624 3.0678588 3.761 0.000169 *** log(TotalPop) -1.1894009 0.2002363 -5.940 2.85e-09 *** log(pop.density) 0.9666634 0.3224912 2.997 0.002722 ** Per_Black -0.0337504 0.0137515 -2.454 0.014116 * BlackPovertyRate -0.0591235 NA NA NA I(BlackPovertyRate^2) 0.0005137 NA NA NA per_ba -0.0588007 0.0123883 -4.746 2.07e-06 *** collegeenrollpc -0.0234031 0.0117701 -1.988 0.046774 * dem_share -0.0216437 0.0153239 -1.412 0.157828 deaths_black_pc -0.4769736 1.9233044 -0.248 0.804137 --- Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 Number of iterations in BFGS optimization: 36 Log-likelihood: -546.9 on 20 Df Vuong Non-Nested Hypothesis Test-Statistic: (test-statistic is asymptotically distributed N(0,1) under the null that the models are indistinguishible) ------------------------------------------------------------- Vuong z-statistic H_A p-value Raw 0.1091066 model1 > model2 0.45655897 AIC-corrected 1.0166707 model1 > model2 0.15465506 BIC-corrected 3.3361830 model1 > model2 0.00042469 DHARMa zero-inflation test via comparison to expected zeros with simulation under H0 = fitted model data: simulationOutput ratioObsExp = 1.0095, p-value = 0.148 alternative hypothesis: more X FIPS Geography.x TotalPop PovertyRate BlackPop BlackPovertyRate AsianPop AsianPoverty 646 16067 3901000 Akron city, Ohio 193478 26.7 58781 36.6 5325 34.7 HispanicPop HispanicPoverty WhitePop WhitePovertyRate PercentBachelor.s State..FIPS. Place..FIPS. Area.Name 646 4023 35.4 117276 20.2 20.63552 39 1000 Akron SqMiles tot.protests tot.attend deaths deaths_unarmed deaths_unarmed_black deaths_armed_black deaths_black 646 62.032 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 deaths_protestyear deaths_protestyear_unarmed X.x NAACPyears MayorPartisanship blackmayor FIPS_PLACE dem 646 1 0 866 12 D 0 1000 66311 rep dem_share FIPS_ST X.y pop hbcu hbcu2 crime deathduring per_ba Per_Black pop.density 646 23773 73.61019 39 1271 30000 0 0 0 0 20.63552 30.38123 3119.003 collegeenrollpc mayorrep unarmed_deaths_pc deaths_pc unarmed_deaths_black_pc deaths_black_pc anyprotests 646 15.50564 0 0 0.05168546 0 0 0 [1] 55 [1] 69 [1] 69 0 1 FALSE 1239 28 TRUE 51 41 Call: glm.nb(formula = tot.protests ~ log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + deaths_black_pc, data = BLM30k, link = log, init.theta = 1.702512767) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -2.3242 -0.4552 -0.2713 -0.1518 5.3229 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -2.073e+01 1.098e+00 -18.874 < 2e-16 *** log(TotalPop) 1.281e+00 7.024e-02 18.234 < 2e-16 *** log(pop.density) -3.067e-01 1.312e-01 -2.338 0.019373 * Per_Black 1.798e-02 4.849e-03 3.708 0.000209 *** BlackPovertyRate 1.288e-01 3.109e-02 4.144 3.41e-05 *** I(BlackPovertyRate^2) -1.309e-03 4.743e-04 -2.760 0.005779 ** per_ba 4.351e-02 5.376e-03 8.094 5.79e-16 *** collegeenrollpc 1.010e-02 4.063e-03 2.487 0.012877 * dem_share 4.083e-02 7.235e-03 5.643 1.67e-08 *** deaths_black_pc 2.795e+00 9.308e-01 3.003 0.002676 ** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(1.7025) family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 1947.89 on 1224 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 499.64 on 1215 degrees of freedom (133 observations deleted due to missingness) AIC: 1111.8 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1 Theta: 1.703 Std. Err.: 0.408 2 x log-likelihood: -1089.835 One-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test data: simulationOutput$scaledResiduals D = 0.028898, p-value = 0.2579 alternative hypothesis: two-sided Call: glm.nb(formula = tot.protests ~ log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share, data = BLM30k, link = log, init.theta = 1.577165988) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -2.2607 -0.4557 -0.2680 -0.1502 5.7484 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -2.090e+01 1.113e+00 -18.776 < 2e-16 *** log(TotalPop) 1.292e+00 7.134e-02 18.110 < 2e-16 *** log(pop.density) -3.144e-01 1.325e-01 -2.373 0.01764 * Per_Black 2.240e-02 4.694e-03 4.772 1.82e-06 *** BlackPovertyRate 1.325e-01 3.121e-02 4.245 2.19e-05 *** I(BlackPovertyRate^2) -1.347e-03 4.767e-04 -2.827 0.00470 ** per_ba 4.437e-02 5.458e-03 8.129 4.33e-16 *** collegeenrollpc 1.058e-02 4.106e-03 2.577 0.00998 ** dem_share 4.093e-02 7.276e-03 5.625 1.85e-08 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(1.5772) family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 1905.43 on 1224 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 500.65 on 1216 degrees of freedom (133 observations deleted due to missingness) AIC: 1118.5 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1 Theta: 1.577 Std. Err.: 0.355 2 x log-likelihood: -1098.501 Call: glm.nb(formula = tot.protests ~ log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + deaths_black_pc, data = BLM30k, link = log, init.theta = 1.702512767) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -2.3242 -0.4552 -0.2713 -0.1518 5.3229 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -2.073e+01 1.098e+00 -18.874 < 2e-16 *** log(TotalPop) 1.281e+00 7.024e-02 18.234 < 2e-16 *** log(pop.density) -3.067e-01 1.312e-01 -2.338 0.019373 * Per_Black 1.798e-02 4.849e-03 3.708 0.000209 *** BlackPovertyRate 1.288e-01 3.109e-02 4.144 3.41e-05 *** I(BlackPovertyRate^2) -1.309e-03 4.743e-04 -2.760 0.005779 ** per_ba 4.351e-02 5.376e-03 8.094 5.79e-16 *** collegeenrollpc 1.010e-02 4.063e-03 2.487 0.012877 * dem_share 4.083e-02 7.235e-03 5.643 1.67e-08 *** deaths_black_pc 2.795e+00 9.308e-01 3.003 0.002676 ** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(1.7025) family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 1947.89 on 1224 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 499.64 on 1215 degrees of freedom (133 observations deleted due to missingness) AIC: 1111.8 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1 Theta: 1.703 Std. Err.: 0.408 2 x log-likelihood: -1089.835 Call: glm.nb(formula = tot.protests ~ log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + deaths_pc, data = BLM30k, link = log, init.theta = 1.638910427) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -2.3302 -0.4510 -0.2683 -0.1505 5.6424 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -2.080e+01 1.105e+00 -18.827 < 2e-16 *** log(TotalPop) 1.277e+00 7.099e-02 17.987 < 2e-16 *** log(pop.density) -3.134e-01 1.317e-01 -2.379 0.0173 * Per_Black 2.155e-02 4.691e-03 4.594 4.34e-06 *** BlackPovertyRate 1.301e-01 3.110e-02 4.182 2.89e-05 *** I(BlackPovertyRate^2) -1.323e-03 4.744e-04 -2.788 0.0053 ** per_ba 4.483e-02 5.466e-03 8.200 2.40e-16 *** collegeenrollpc 1.046e-02 4.083e-03 2.563 0.0104 * dem_share 4.135e-02 7.243e-03 5.709 1.13e-08 *** deaths_pc 9.402e-01 6.323e-01 1.487 0.1370 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(1.6389) family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 1926.81 on 1224 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 502.26 on 1215 degrees of freedom (133 observations deleted due to missingness) AIC: 1118.2 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1 Theta: 1.639 Std. Err.: 0.378 2 x log-likelihood: -1096.224 Call: glm.nb(formula = tot.protests ~ log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + mayorrep + NAACPyears + blackmayor, data = BLM30k, link = log, init.theta = 1.620159775) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -2.2001 -0.4840 -0.2972 -0.1717 5.5664 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -2.012e+01 1.273e+00 -15.805 < 2e-16 *** log(TotalPop) 1.222e+00 8.036e-02 15.201 < 2e-16 *** log(pop.density) -2.616e-01 1.361e-01 -1.922 0.054566 . Per_Black 2.188e-02 5.045e-03 4.337 1.44e-05 *** BlackPovertyRate 1.228e-01 3.204e-02 3.832 0.000127 *** I(BlackPovertyRate^2) -1.256e-03 4.862e-04 -2.584 0.009768 ** per_ba 4.402e-02 5.789e-03 7.604 2.86e-14 *** collegeenrollpc 9.915e-03 4.277e-03 2.318 0.020428 * dem_share 3.820e-02 8.115e-03 4.708 2.50e-06 *** mayorrep 4.555e-02 2.042e-01 0.223 0.823522 NAACPyears 1.462e-02 1.122e-02 1.302 0.192789 blackmayor 3.947e-03 2.063e-01 0.019 0.984736 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(1.6202) family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 1775.72 on 1064 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 474.59 on 1053 degrees of freedom (293 observations deleted due to missingness) AIC: 1086.6 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1 Theta: 1.620 Std. Err.: 0.364 2 x log-likelihood: -1060.574 Likelihood ratio tests of Negative Binomial Models Response: tot.protests Model 1 log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share 2 log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + mayorrep 3 log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + mayorrep + NAACPyears 4 log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + mayorrep + NAACPyears + blackmayor theta Resid. df 2 x log-lik. Test df LR stat. Pr(Chi) 1 1.577166 1216 -1098.501 2 1.583778 1215 -1097.859 1 vs 2 1 0.6423989 0.4228435 3 1.556048 1214 -1095.892 2 vs 3 1 1.9669615 0.1607708 4 1.620160 1053 -1060.574 3 vs 4 161 35.3175370 1.0000000 Likelihood ratio tests of Negative Binomial Models Response: tot.protests Model 1 log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + deaths_black_pc 2 log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + mayorrep + deaths_black_pc 3 log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + mayorrep + NAACPyears + deaths_black_pc 4 log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + mayorrep + NAACPyears + blackmayor + deaths_black_pc theta Resid. df 2 x log-lik. Test df LR stat. Pr(Chi) 1 1.702513 1215 -1089.835 2 1.713028 1214 -1088.895 1 vs 2 1 0.9393584 0.3324429 3 1.676723 1213 -1086.615 2 vs 3 1 2.2809202 0.1309741 4 1.738507 1052 -1051.944 3 vs 4 161 34.6704117 1.0000000 Call: glm.nb(formula = tot.protests ~ log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + mayorrep + NAACPyears + blackmayor + deaths_pc, data = BLM30k, link = log, init.theta = 1.674749965) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -2.2601 -0.4834 -0.2946 -0.1721 5.4652 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -19.999618 1.264150 -15.821 < 2e-16 *** log(TotalPop) 1.208737 0.079961 15.117 < 2e-16 *** log(pop.density) -0.263727 0.135248 -1.950 0.051183 . Per_Black 0.021047 0.005026 4.188 2.82e-05 *** BlackPovertyRate 0.120361 0.031952 3.767 0.000165 *** I(BlackPovertyRate^2) -0.001230 0.000484 -2.542 0.011027 * per_ba 0.044457 0.005791 7.677 1.63e-14 *** collegeenrollpc 0.009798 0.004254 2.303 0.021263 * dem_share 0.038541 0.008089 4.765 1.89e-06 *** mayorrep 0.040211 0.203768 0.197 0.843562 NAACPyears 0.014847 0.011110 1.336 0.181404 blackmayor 0.009818 0.204486 0.048 0.961704 deaths_pc 0.833310 0.635348 1.312 0.189662 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(1.6747) family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 1793.47 on 1064 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 476.07 on 1052 degrees of freedom (293 observations deleted due to missingness) AIC: 1086.8 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1 Theta: 1.675 Std. Err.: 0.384 2 x log-likelihood: -1058.796 [1] 181 [1] 0 [1] 0 [1] 0 [1] 115 [1] 0 [1] 0 [1] 0 [1] 0 [1] 22 [1] 0 Likelihood ratio tests of Negative Binomial Models Response: tot.protests Model 1 log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + deaths_black_pc 2 log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + mayorrep + deaths_black_pc 3 log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + mayorrep + NAACPyears + deaths_black_pc 4 log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + mayorrep + NAACPyears + blackmayor + deaths_black_pc theta Resid. df 2 x log-lik. Test df LR stat. Pr(Chi) 1 1.770567 1055 -1054.006 2 1.775446 1054 -1053.859 1 vs 2 1 0.14692602 0.7014904 3 1.746015 1053 -1052.022 2 vs 3 1 1.83662227 0.1753474 4 1.738507 1052 -1051.944 3 vs 4 1 0.07803703 0.7799754 ============================================================================================================================================= Dependent variable: ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of protests (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Population (log) 1.292*** 1.281*** 1.277*** 1.222*** 1.212*** 1.209*** (0.071) (0.070) (0.071) (0.080) (0.079) (0.080) Population density (log) -0.314** -0.307** -0.313** -0.262* -0.260* -0.264* (0.132) (0.131) (0.132) (0.136) (0.135) (0.135) Percent Black 0.022*** 0.018*** 0.022*** 0.022*** 0.017*** 0.021*** (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) Black Poverty Rate 0.132*** 0.129*** 0.130*** 0.123*** 0.118*** 0.120*** (0.031) (0.031) (0.031) (0.032) (0.032) (0.032) Black Poverty Rate (squared) -0.001*** -0.001*** -0.001*** -0.001*** -0.001** -0.001** (0.0005) (0.0005) (0.0005) (0.0005) (0.0005) (0.0005) Percent college-educated 0.044*** 0.044*** 0.045*** 0.044*** 0.043*** 0.044*** (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) College students (% of population) 0.011*** 0.010** 0.010** 0.010** 0.009** 0.010** (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) Democratic vote share 0.041*** 0.041*** 0.041*** 0.038*** 0.039*** 0.039*** (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) Black police-caused deaths (per 10,000) 2.795*** 2.811*** (0.931) (0.931) Police-caused deaths (per 10,000) 0.940 0.833 (0.632) (0.635) Republican mayor 0.046 0.089 0.040 (0.204) (0.203) (0.204) Years of NAACP activity 0.015 0.015 0.015 (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) Black mayor 0.004 0.057 0.010 (0.206) (0.202) (0.204) Constant -20.901*** -20.730*** -20.798*** -20.115*** -19.974*** -20.000*** (1.113) (1.098) (1.105) (1.273) (1.259) (1.264) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Observations 1,225 1,225 1,225 1,065 1,065 1,065 Log Likelihood -550.251 -545.917 -549.112 -531.287 -526.972 -530.398 theta 1.577*** (0.355) 1.703*** (0.408) 1.639*** (0.378) 1.620*** (0.364) 1.739*** (0.413) 1.675*** (0.384) Akaike Inf. Crit. 1,118.501 1,111.835 1,118.224 1,086.574 1,079.944 1,086.796 ============================================================================================================================================= Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01 Call: glm.nb(formula = tot.protests ~ log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share, data = BLM30k.nd, link = log, init.theta = 1.734490421) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.9041 -0.4209 -0.2509 -0.1424 5.7953 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -2.283e+01 1.450e+00 -15.742 < 2e-16 *** log(TotalPop) 1.397e+00 1.017e-01 13.743 < 2e-16 *** log(pop.density) -2.149e-01 1.513e-01 -1.421 0.15534 Per_Black 2.483e-02 5.547e-03 4.476 7.60e-06 *** BlackPovertyRate 1.288e-01 3.285e-02 3.920 8.85e-05 *** I(BlackPovertyRate^2) -1.289e-03 5.004e-04 -2.576 0.00999 ** per_ba 4.895e-02 5.930e-03 8.255 < 2e-16 *** collegeenrollpc 1.203e-02 4.240e-03 2.837 0.00455 ** dem_share 3.608e-02 8.103e-03 4.453 8.45e-06 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(1.7345) family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 1315.13 on 1131 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 428.12 on 1123 degrees of freedom (126 observations deleted due to missingness) AIC: 868.69 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1 Theta: 1.734 Std. Err.: 0.519 2 x log-likelihood: -848.692 Call: glm.nb(formula = tot.protests ~ log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + deaths_black_pc, data = BLM30k.nd, link = log, init.theta = 2.054592986) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.9495 -0.4215 -0.2545 -0.1436 5.2645 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -2.258e+01 1.412e+00 -15.987 < 2e-16 *** log(TotalPop) 1.384e+00 9.890e-02 13.991 < 2e-16 *** log(pop.density) -2.098e-01 1.487e-01 -1.410 0.158403 Per_Black 1.933e-02 5.730e-03 3.373 0.000745 *** BlackPovertyRate 1.245e-01 3.277e-02 3.800 0.000145 *** I(BlackPovertyRate^2) -1.252e-03 4.986e-04 -2.511 0.012033 * per_ba 4.857e-02 5.791e-03 8.386 < 2e-16 *** collegeenrollpc 1.132e-02 4.118e-03 2.748 0.005993 ** dem_share 3.544e-02 8.005e-03 4.427 9.54e-06 *** deaths_black_pc 3.513e+00 9.430e-01 3.726 0.000195 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(2.0546) family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 1364.97 on 1131 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 426.94 on 1122 degrees of freedom (126 observations deleted due to missingness) AIC: 858.15 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1 Theta: 2.055 Std. Err.: 0.704 2 x log-likelihood: -836.153 Call: glm.nb(formula = tot.protests ~ log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + deaths_pc, data = BLM30k.nd, link = log, init.theta = 1.900975265) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.9343 -0.4214 -0.2502 -0.1435 5.6540 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -2.264e+01 1.422e+00 -15.916 < 2e-16 *** log(TotalPop) 1.373e+00 1.001e-01 13.716 < 2e-16 *** log(pop.density) -2.182e-01 1.493e-01 -1.461 0.14394 Per_Black 2.363e-02 5.526e-03 4.277 1.90e-05 *** BlackPovertyRate 1.277e-01 3.275e-02 3.898 9.68e-05 *** I(BlackPovertyRate^2) -1.289e-03 4.984e-04 -2.586 0.00971 ** per_ba 4.992e-02 5.922e-03 8.429 < 2e-16 *** collegeenrollpc 1.167e-02 4.174e-03 2.797 0.00516 ** dem_share 3.639e-02 8.009e-03 4.543 5.54e-06 *** deaths_pc 1.318e+00 6.814e-01 1.934 0.05310 . --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(1.901) family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 1342.37 on 1131 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 430.79 on 1122 degrees of freedom (126 observations deleted due to missingness) AIC: 867.08 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1 Theta: 1.901 Std. Err.: 0.604 2 x log-likelihood: -845.080 ========================================================================================== Dependent variable: -------------------------------------------------- Number of protests (1) (2) (3) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Population (log) 1.397*** 1.384*** 1.373*** (0.102) (0.099) (0.100) Population density (log) -0.215 -0.210 -0.218 (0.151) (0.149) (0.149) Percent Black 0.025*** 0.019*** 0.024*** (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) Black Poverty Rate 0.129*** 0.125*** 0.128*** (0.033) (0.033) (0.033) Black Poverty Rate (squared) -0.001*** -0.001** -0.001*** (0.001) (0.0005) (0.0005) Percent college-educated 0.049*** 0.049*** 0.050*** (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) College students (% of population) 0.012*** 0.011*** 0.012*** (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) Democratic vote share 0.036*** 0.035*** 0.036*** (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) Black police-caused deaths (per 10,000) 3.513*** (0.943) Police-caused deaths (per 10,000) 1.318* (0.681) Constant -22.827*** -22.578*** -22.637*** (1.450) (1.412) (1.422) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Observations 1,132 1,132 1,132 Log Likelihood -425.346 -419.077 -423.540 theta 1.734*** (0.519) 2.055*** (0.704) 1.901*** (0.604) Akaike Inf. Crit. 868.692 858.153 867.080 ========================================================================================== Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01 Call: glm.nb(formula = tot.protests ~ log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + deaths_black_pc + crime, data = BLM30k, link = log, init.theta = 1.852582956) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -2.2924 -0.4517 -0.2701 -0.1552 5.2590 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -2.027e+01 1.089e+00 -18.616 < 2e-16 *** log(TotalPop) 1.251e+00 6.988e-02 17.905 < 2e-16 *** log(pop.density) -2.967e-01 1.299e-01 -2.283 0.02241 * Per_Black 1.466e-02 5.014e-03 2.924 0.00345 ** BlackPovertyRate 1.281e-01 3.138e-02 4.083 4.44e-05 *** I(BlackPovertyRate^2) -1.356e-03 4.824e-04 -2.812 0.00493 ** per_ba 4.614e-02 5.374e-03 8.585 < 2e-16 *** collegeenrollpc 9.905e-03 4.010e-03 2.470 0.01350 * dem_share 3.711e-02 7.198e-03 5.155 2.53e-07 *** deaths_black_pc 2.470e+00 9.254e-01 2.669 0.00761 ** crime 5.677e-01 1.981e-01 2.866 0.00415 ** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(1.8526) family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 1994.3 on 1224 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 499.5 on 1214 degrees of freedom (133 observations deleted due to missingness) AIC: 1105.6 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1 Theta: 1.853 Std. Err.: 0.450 2 x log-likelihood: -1081.575 =================================================================== Dependent variable: --------------------------- Number of protests ------------------------------------------------------------------- Population (log) 1.251*** (0.070) Population density (log) -0.297** (0.130) Percent Black 0.015*** (0.005) Black Poverty Rate 0.128*** (0.031) Black Poverty Rate (squared) -0.001*** (0.0005) Percent college-educated 0.046*** (0.005) College students (% of population) 0.010** (0.004) Democratic vote share 0.037*** (0.007) Black police-caused deaths (per 10,000) 2.470*** (0.925) High violent crime (dummy) 0.568*** (0.198) Constant -20.268*** (1.089) ------------------------------------------------------------------- Observations 1,225 Log Likelihood -541.787 theta 1.853*** (0.450) Akaike Inf. Crit. 1,105.575 =================================================================== Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01 Call: glm.nb(formula = tot.protests ~ log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + mayorrep, data = BLM30k, link = log, init.theta = 1.583778034) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -2.2652 -0.4524 -0.2653 -0.1467 5.7254 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -21.116441 1.153878 -18.300 < 2e-16 *** log(TotalPop) 1.294378 0.071394 18.130 < 2e-16 *** log(pop.density) -0.320166 0.132703 -2.413 0.01584 * Per_Black 0.022444 0.004696 4.779 1.76e-06 *** BlackPovertyRate 0.132834 0.031200 4.258 2.07e-05 *** I(BlackPovertyRate^2) -0.001345 0.000476 -2.826 0.00471 ** per_ba 0.044622 0.005477 8.147 3.72e-16 *** collegeenrollpc 0.010541 0.004113 2.563 0.01039 * dem_share 0.043442 0.007942 5.470 4.51e-08 *** mayorrep 0.161540 0.199880 0.808 0.41898 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(1.5838) family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 1907.77 on 1224 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 500.43 on 1215 degrees of freedom (133 observations deleted due to missingness) AIC: 1119.9 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1 Theta: 1.584 Std. Err.: 0.357 2 x log-likelihood: -1097.859 Call: glm.nb(formula = tot.protests ~ log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + blackmayor, data = BLM30k, link = log, init.theta = 1.638073875) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -2.2363 -0.4883 -0.2925 -0.1676 5.6101 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -2.055e+01 1.127e+00 -18.236 < 2e-16 *** log(TotalPop) 1.259e+00 7.179e-02 17.532 < 2e-16 *** log(pop.density) -2.555e-01 1.353e-01 -1.888 0.059027 . Per_Black 2.332e-02 4.940e-03 4.721 2.35e-06 *** BlackPovertyRate 1.238e-01 3.191e-02 3.879 0.000105 *** I(BlackPovertyRate^2) -1.254e-03 4.835e-04 -2.593 0.009507 ** per_ba 4.329e-02 5.762e-03 7.514 5.75e-14 *** collegeenrollpc 1.097e-02 4.206e-03 2.608 0.009115 ** dem_share 3.791e-02 7.424e-03 5.106 3.28e-07 *** blackmayor 2.025e-02 2.013e-01 0.101 0.919875 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(1.6381) family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 1781.61 on 1064 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 477.23 on 1055 degrees of freedom (293 observations deleted due to missingness) AIC: 1084.1 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1 Theta: 1.638 Std. Err.: 0.372 2 x log-likelihood: -1062.123 Call: glm.nb(formula = tot.protests ~ log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + NAACPyears, data = BLM30k, link = log, init.theta = 1.550711407) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -2.212 -0.454 -0.269 -0.153 5.692 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -2.033e+01 1.222e+00 -16.646 < 2e-16 *** log(TotalPop) 1.248e+00 8.025e-02 15.551 < 2e-16 *** log(pop.density) -3.154e-01 1.331e-01 -2.369 0.01783 * Per_Black 2.065e-02 4.830e-03 4.275 1.91e-05 *** BlackPovertyRate 1.310e-01 3.138e-02 4.174 2.99e-05 *** I(BlackPovertyRate^2) -1.347e-03 4.801e-04 -2.805 0.00502 ** per_ba 4.494e-02 5.472e-03 8.212 < 2e-16 *** collegeenrollpc 9.526e-03 4.168e-03 2.286 0.02227 * dem_share 4.025e-02 7.293e-03 5.518 3.43e-08 *** NAACPyears 1.678e-02 1.129e-02 1.487 0.13704 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(1.5507) family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 1895.99 on 1224 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 496.97 on 1215 degrees of freedom (133 observations deleted due to missingness) AIC: 1118.6 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1 Theta: 1.551 Std. Err.: 0.344 2 x log-likelihood: -1096.559 Call: glm(formula = anyprotests ~ log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + deaths_black_pc, family = binomial(link = "logit"), data = BLM30k) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -2.3290 -0.3919 -0.2055 -0.1010 3.3731 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -2.347e+01 2.155e+00 -10.891 < 2e-16 *** log(TotalPop) 1.606e+00 1.542e-01 10.414 < 2e-16 *** log(pop.density) -5.860e-01 1.867e-01 -3.139 0.001694 ** Per_Black 2.052e-02 7.459e-03 2.751 0.005937 ** BlackPovertyRate 1.392e-01 3.954e-02 3.522 0.000429 *** I(BlackPovertyRate^2) -1.419e-03 6.111e-04 -2.321 0.020274 * per_ba 5.650e-02 8.027e-03 7.039 1.94e-12 *** collegeenrollpc 1.575e-02 6.375e-03 2.471 0.013482 * dem_share 4.816e-02 9.992e-03 4.820 1.43e-06 *** deaths_black_pc 3.398e+00 1.499e+00 2.267 0.023389 * --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 968.27 on 1224 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 571.37 on 1215 degrees of freedom (133 observations deleted due to missingness) AIC: 591.37 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6 Call: glm(formula = anyprotests ~ log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + deaths_pc, family = binomial(link = "logit"), data = BLM30k) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -2.3313 -0.3916 -0.2070 -0.1004 3.3978 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -23.614202 2.161850 -10.923 < 2e-16 *** log(TotalPop) 1.602394 0.155166 10.327 < 2e-16 *** log(pop.density) -0.580056 0.185677 -3.124 0.001784 ** Per_Black 0.024063 0.007141 3.370 0.000752 *** BlackPovertyRate 0.140852 0.039455 3.570 0.000357 *** I(BlackPovertyRate^2) -0.001432 0.000610 -2.348 0.018865 * per_ba 0.056938 0.008043 7.080 1.45e-12 *** collegeenrollpc 0.015485 0.006352 2.438 0.014771 * dem_share 0.049121 0.009990 4.917 8.79e-07 *** deaths_pc 0.725785 0.935133 0.776 0.437672 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 968.27 on 1224 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 575.51 on 1215 degrees of freedom (133 observations deleted due to missingness) AIC: 595.51 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6 Call: glm(formula = anyprotests ~ log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + deaths_black_pc, family = binomial(link = "logit"), data = BLM30k.nd) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.8297 -0.3754 -0.2017 -0.1043 3.4069 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -2.427e+01 2.501e+00 -9.707 < 2e-16 *** log(TotalPop) 1.646e+00 1.844e-01 8.925 < 2e-16 *** log(pop.density) -5.408e-01 2.035e-01 -2.658 0.007866 ** Per_Black 1.792e-02 8.202e-03 2.184 0.028942 * BlackPovertyRate 1.383e-01 4.119e-02 3.359 0.000783 *** I(BlackPovertyRate^2) -1.431e-03 6.349e-04 -2.254 0.024180 * per_ba 5.858e-02 8.474e-03 6.913 4.73e-12 *** collegeenrollpc 1.776e-02 6.687e-03 2.657 0.007894 ** dem_share 4.695e-02 1.067e-02 4.400 1.08e-05 *** deaths_black_pc 4.382e+00 1.556e+00 2.817 0.004848 ** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 798.95 on 1131 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 497.57 on 1122 degrees of freedom (126 observations deleted due to missingness) AIC: 517.57 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6 Call: glm(formula = anyprotests ~ log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + deaths_pc, family = binomial(link = "logit"), data = BLM30k.nd) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.8379 -0.3783 -0.2060 -0.1037 3.4508 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -2.447e+01 2.500e+00 -9.785 < 2e-16 *** log(TotalPop) 1.634e+00 1.842e-01 8.867 < 2e-16 *** log(pop.density) -5.222e-01 2.017e-01 -2.589 0.009617 ** Per_Black 2.236e-02 7.809e-03 2.863 0.004194 ** BlackPovertyRate 1.418e-01 4.096e-02 3.462 0.000537 *** I(BlackPovertyRate^2) -1.471e-03 6.322e-04 -2.326 0.020005 * per_ba 5.898e-02 8.481e-03 6.955 3.52e-12 *** collegeenrollpc 1.742e-02 6.646e-03 2.621 0.008767 ** dem_share 4.789e-02 1.066e-02 4.492 7.06e-06 *** deaths_pc 1.155e+00 9.836e-01 1.174 0.240254 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 798.95 on 1131 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 503.56 on 1122 degrees of freedom (126 observations deleted due to missingness) AIC: 523.56 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6 Call: glm.nb(formula = tot.protests ~ log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + unarmed_deaths_black_pc, data = BLM30k, link = log, init.theta = 1.549351374) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -2.2189 -0.4517 -0.2674 -0.1519 4.2803 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -2.064e+01 1.116e+00 -18.501 < 2e-16 *** log(TotalPop) 1.296e+00 7.197e-02 18.006 < 2e-16 *** log(pop.density) -3.389e-01 1.323e-01 -2.561 0.010432 * Per_Black 2.078e-02 4.752e-03 4.374 1.22e-05 *** BlackPovertyRate 1.270e-01 3.122e-02 4.069 4.72e-05 *** I(BlackPovertyRate^2) -1.273e-03 4.756e-04 -2.677 0.007431 ** per_ba 4.323e-02 5.500e-03 7.860 3.83e-15 *** collegeenrollpc 1.128e-02 4.172e-03 2.703 0.006865 ** dem_share 4.080e-02 7.242e-03 5.634 1.76e-08 *** unarmed_deaths_black_pc 8.520e+00 2.346e+00 3.631 0.000282 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(1.5494) family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 1895.49 on 1224 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 490.22 on 1215 degrees of freedom (133 observations deleted due to missingness) AIC: 1111.9 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1 Theta: 1.549 Std. Err.: 0.354 2 x log-likelihood: -1089.900 Call: glm.nb(formula = tot.protests ~ log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + deaths_black_pc + unarmed_deaths_black_pc, data = BLM30k, link = log, init.theta = 1.650044988) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -2.2780 -0.4533 -0.2707 -0.1534 4.3608 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -2.060e+01 1.104e+00 -18.652 < 2e-16 *** log(TotalPop) 1.287e+00 7.099e-02 18.123 < 2e-16 *** log(pop.density) -3.254e-01 1.314e-01 -2.477 0.013256 * Per_Black 1.794e-02 4.862e-03 3.689 0.000225 *** BlackPovertyRate 1.259e-01 3.115e-02 4.041 5.33e-05 *** I(BlackPovertyRate^2) -1.265e-03 4.745e-04 -2.666 0.007674 ** per_ba 4.292e-02 5.430e-03 7.903 2.71e-15 *** collegeenrollpc 1.078e-02 4.130e-03 2.610 0.009059 ** dem_share 4.072e-02 7.217e-03 5.642 1.68e-08 *** deaths_black_pc 2.117e+00 1.028e+00 2.059 0.039464 * unarmed_deaths_black_pc 6.076e+00 2.586e+00 2.349 0.018815 * --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(1.65) family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 1930.56 on 1224 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 492.49 on 1214 degrees of freedom (133 observations deleted due to missingness) AIC: 1109.8 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1 Theta: 1.650 Std. Err.: 0.394 2 x log-likelihood: -1085.785 Call: glm.nb(formula = tot.protests ~ log(TotalPop) + log(pop.density) + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + I(BlackPovertyRate^2) + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + deaths_black_pc, data = BLM30k, link = log, init.theta = 1.702512767) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -2.3242 -0.4552 -0.2713 -0.1518 5.3229 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -2.073e+01 1.098e+00 -18.874 < 2e-16 *** log(TotalPop) 1.281e+00 7.024e-02 18.234 < 2e-16 *** log(pop.density) -3.067e-01 1.312e-01 -2.338 0.019373 * Per_Black 1.798e-02 4.849e-03 3.708 0.000209 *** BlackPovertyRate 1.288e-01 3.109e-02 4.144 3.41e-05 *** I(BlackPovertyRate^2) -1.309e-03 4.743e-04 -2.760 0.005779 ** per_ba 4.351e-02 5.376e-03 8.094 5.79e-16 *** collegeenrollpc 1.010e-02 4.063e-03 2.487 0.012877 * dem_share 4.083e-02 7.235e-03 5.643 1.67e-08 *** deaths_black_pc 2.795e+00 9.308e-01 3.003 0.002676 ** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(1.7025) family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 1947.89 on 1224 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 499.64 on 1215 degrees of freedom (133 observations deleted due to missingness) AIC: 1111.8 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1 Theta: 1.703 Std. Err.: 0.408 2 x log-likelihood: -1089.835 [1] "X" "FIPS" "Geography.x" [4] "TotalPop" "PovertyRate" "BlackPop" [7] "BlackPovertyRate" "AsianPop" "AsianPoverty" [10] "HispanicPop" "HispanicPoverty" "WhitePop" [13] "WhitePovertyRate" "PercentBachelor.s" "State..FIPS." [16] "Place..FIPS." "Area.Name" "SqMiles" [19] "tot.protests" "tot.attend" "deaths" [22] "deaths_unarmed" "deaths_unarmed_black" "deaths_armed_black" [25] "deaths_black" "deaths_protestyear" "deaths_protestyear_unarmed" [28] "X.x" "NAACPyears" "MayorPartisanship" [31] "blackmayor" "FIPS_PLACE" "dem" [34] "rep" "dem_share" "FIPS_ST" [37] "X.y" "pop" "hbcu" [40] "hbcu2" "crime" "deathduring" [43] "per_ba" "Per_Black" "pop.density" [46] "collegeenrollpc" "mayorrep" "unarmed_deaths_pc" [49] "deaths_pc" "unarmed_deaths_black_pc" "deaths_black_pc" [52] "anyprotests" "influential" "logTotalPop" [55] "logpop.density" "sqBlackPovertyRate" Call: glm.nb(formula = tot.protests ~ logTotalPop + logpop.density + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + sqBlackPovertyRate + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + deaths_black_pc, data = BLM30k, link = log, init.theta = 1.702512767) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -2.3242 -0.4552 -0.2713 -0.1518 5.3229 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -2.073e+01 1.098e+00 -18.874 < 2e-16 *** logTotalPop 1.281e+00 7.024e-02 18.234 < 2e-16 *** logpop.density -3.067e-01 1.312e-01 -2.338 0.019373 * Per_Black 1.798e-02 4.849e-03 3.708 0.000209 *** BlackPovertyRate 1.288e-01 3.109e-02 4.144 3.41e-05 *** sqBlackPovertyRate -1.309e-03 4.743e-04 -2.760 0.005779 ** per_ba 4.351e-02 5.376e-03 8.094 5.79e-16 *** collegeenrollpc 1.010e-02 4.063e-03 2.487 0.012877 * dem_share 4.083e-02 7.235e-03 5.643 1.67e-08 *** deaths_black_pc 2.795e+00 9.308e-01 3.003 0.002676 ** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(1.7025) family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 1947.89 on 1224 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 499.64 on 1215 degrees of freedom (133 observations deleted due to missingness) AIC: 1111.8 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1 Theta: 1.703 Std. Err.: 0.408 2 x log-likelihood: -1089.835 [1] 1.322447 [1] 1.322447 Call: glm.nb(formula = tot.protests ~ logTotalPop + logpop.density + Per_Black + BlackPovertyRate + sqBlackPovertyRate + per_ba + collegeenrollpc + dem_share + deaths_black_pc, data = BLM30k.nd, link = log, init.theta = 2.089849387) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.9596 -0.4215 -0.2545 -0.1436 5.2833 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -2.259e+01 1.406e+00 -16.065 < 2e-16 *** logTotalPop 1.385e+00 9.849e-02 14.066 < 2e-16 *** logpop.density -2.120e-01 1.483e-01 -1.430 0.152729 Per_Black 1.927e-02 5.706e-03 3.376 0.000734 *** BlackPovertyRate 1.251e-01 3.277e-02 3.818 0.000135 *** sqBlackPovertyRate -1.260e-03 4.984e-04 -2.528 0.011483 * per_ba 4.830e-02 5.783e-03 8.351 < 2e-16 *** collegeenrollpc 1.137e-02 4.104e-03 2.770 0.005602 ** dem_share 3.564e-02 7.987e-03 4.462 8.11e-06 *** deaths_black_pc 3.475e+00 9.423e-01 3.688 0.000226 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(2.0898) family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 1369.3 on 1130 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 426.6 on 1121 degrees of freedom (126 observations deleted due to missingness) AIC: 856.73 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1 Theta: 2.090 Std. Err.: 0.718 2 x log-likelihood: -834.728 [1] 1.415578 [1] 1.415578