/*Replication File for: Authors: Matthew Fuhrmann and Michael C. Horowitz Title: "Droning On: Explaining the Proliferation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Journal: International Organization Date: August 25, 2016 Note: This file will replicate all of the findings reported in the above paper, and in the associated online appendix. To run the file, you will need to use the "eststo" and "esttab" commands in Stata.*/ ******************************************************************************** *Set the directory and open the dataset ******************************************************************************** use "UAVIOReplication.dta",clear ******************************************************************************** *Table 2 ******************************************************************************** probit advanced terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense, cluster(cowcc) eststo model1 probit armedprogram terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense, cluster(cowcc) eststo model2 probit advanced terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat hightech defense, cluster(cowcc) eststo model3 probit armedprogram terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat hightech defense, cluster(cowcc) eststo model4 esttab using probit1.tex, replace pr2 label se nodepvars star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** .01 *** .001) nogaps /// title(Probit analysis of UAV proliferation.\label{probit1}) estimates clear ******************************************************************************** *In-Sample Predictive Accuracy for Models 1 and 2 ******************************************************************************** probit advanced terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense, cluster(cowcc) lstat probit armedprogram terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense, cluster(cowcc) lstat ******************************************************************************** *Figure 2 ******************************************************************************** estsimp probit armedprogram terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense, cluster(cowcc) setx mean setx defense 0 autocrat 1 democrat 0 simqi, prval(1) genpr(p1) setx defense 0 autocrat 0 democrat 0 simqi, prval(1) genpr(p2) setx defense 0 autocrat 0 democrat 1 simqi, prval(1) genpr(p3) ttest p1=p2, unpaired ttest p2=p3, unpaired clear estimates clear use "Figure 3 2016-0629", clear graph twoway scatter var1 var5, msize(medlarge)|| rcap var2 var3 var5, lwidth(medthick) xlab(1(1)5) graphregion(color(white)) legend(region(lstyle(none))) ytitle("Predicted Probability of Armed UAV Proliferation (%)") legend(off) graphregion(color(white)) legend(region(lstyle(none))) clear use "UAVIOReplication",clear ******************************************************************************** *Table 3 ******************************************************************************** *Advanced model probit advanced terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense, cluster(cowcc) predict prob gsort -prob list statenme prob if prob>.33 & prob~=. & advanced==0, table clean noobs *Armed model probit armedprogram terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense, cluster(cowcc) predict prob2 gsort -prob2 list statenme prob2 if prob2>.34 & prob2~=. & armedprogram==0, table clean noobs ******************************************************************************** *Substantive Effects Referenced in Results Section ******************************************************************************** *Territorial disputes estsimp probit advanced terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense, cluster(cowcc) setx mean setx defense 0 setx terrdisputes 1.73 simqi setx terrdisputes 3.73 simqi drop b1-b7 estsimp probit armedprogram terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense, cluster(cowcc) setx mean setx defense 0 setx terrdisputes 1.73 simqi setx terrdisputes 3.74 simqi drop b1-b7 *Terrorism estsimp probit advanced terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense, cluster(cowcc) setx mean setx defense 0 setx lnnterr5 2.14 simqi setx lnnterr5 4.54 simqi drop b1-b7 estsimp probit armedprogram terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense, cluster(cowcc) setx mean setx defense 0 setx lnnterr5 2.14 simqi setx lnnterr5 4.54 simqi drop b1-b7 *GDP per capita estsimp probit advanced terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense, cluster(cowcc) setx mean setx defense 0 setx lngdpcap 8.58 simqi setx lngdpcap 10.09 simqi drop b1-b7 estsimp probit armedprogram terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense, cluster(cowcc) setx mean setx defense 0 setx lngdpcap 8.58 simqi setx lngdpcap 10.09 simqi drop b1-b7 ******************************************************************************** *Online Appendix ******************************************************************************** *Table A1: Robustness tests using borders variable instead of threat variable probit advanced total lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense, cluster(cowcc) estimates store m1 probit armedprogram total lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense, cluster(cowcc) estimates store m2 esttab m1 m2 using TableA1.rtf, replace onecell se pr2 t(3) b(a3) scalars(ll) legend label collabels(none) varlabels(_cons Constant) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) order (total lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense) estimates clear *Table A2: Robustness test for personalism probit advanced terrdisputes lnnterr5 gwf_personal gwf_party gwf_military gwf_monarchy lngdpcap defense, cluster(cowcc) estimates store m1 probit armedprogram terrdisputes lnnterr5 gwf_personal gwf_party gwf_military gwf_monarchy democrat lngdpcap defense, cluster(cowcc) estimates store m2 esttab m1 m2 using TableA2.rtf, replace onecell se pr2 t(3) b(a3) scalars(ll) legend label collabels(none) varlabels(_cons Constant) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) order (terrdisputes lnnterr5 gwf_personal gwf_party gwf_military gwf_monarchy democrat lngdpcap defense) estimates clear *Table A3: Use alternate cutpoint for regime type dummies probit advanced terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat6 democrat6 lngdpcap defense, cluster(cowcc) eststo m1 probit armedprogram terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat6 democrat6 lngdpcap defense, cluster(cowcc) eststo m2 esttab m1 m2 using TableA3.rtf, replace onecell se pr2 t(3) b(a3) scalars(ll) legend label collabels(none) varlabels(_cons Constant) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) order (terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat6 democrat6 lngdpcap defense) estimates clear *Table A4: Use continuous Polity variables to test regime type argument probit advanced terrdisputes lnnterr5 polity2 polity2_squared lngdpcap defense, cluster(cowcc) eststo m1 probit armedprogram terrdisputes lnnterr5 polity2 polity2_squared lngdpcap defense, cluster(cowcc) eststo m2 esttab m1 m2 using TableA4, replace onecell se pr2 t(3) b(a3) scalars(ll) legend label collabels(none) varlabels(_cons Constant) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) order (terrdisputes lnnterr5 polity2 polity2_squared lngdpcap defense) estimates clear *Table A5: Robustness table for appendix with 3rd economic measure probit advanced terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat scitechjournal defense, cluster(cowcc) estimates store m5 probit armedprogram terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat scitechjournal defense, cluster(cowcc) estimates store m6 esttab m5 m6 using TableA5.rtf, replace onecell se pr2 t(3) b(a3) scalars(ll) legend label collabels(none) varlabels(_cons Constant) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) order (terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat scitechjournal defense) estimates clear *Table A6: Robustness table with prestige for tactical proliferation as well probit tactical terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense olympic, cluster(cowcc) estimates store m7 probit advanced terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense olympic, cluster(cowcc) estimates store m8 probit armedprogram terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense olympic, cluster(cowcc) estimates store m9 esttab m7 m8 m9 using TableA6.rtf, replace onecell se pr2 t(3) b(a3) scalars(ll) legend label collabels(none) varlabels(_cons Constant) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) order (terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense olympicprestige) estimates clear *Table A7: Robustness table with prestige for tactical proliferation as well, by major powers g majpow=0 replace majpow=1 if cowcc==2 replace majpow=1 if cowcc==200 replace majpow=1 if cowcc==220 replace majpow=1 if cowcc==255 replace majpow=1 if cowcc==365 replace majpow=1 if cowcc==710 replace majpow=1 if cowcc==740 probit tactical terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense olympic if majpow==0, cluster(cowcc) estimates store m10 probit advanced terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense olympic if majpow==0, cluster(cowcc) estimates store m11 probit armedprogram terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense olympic if majpow==0, cluster(cowcc) estimates store m12 esttab m10 m11 m12 using TableA7.rtf, replace onecell se pr2 t(3) b(a3) scalars(ll) legend label collabels(none) varlabels(_cons Constant) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) order (terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense olympicprestige) estimates clear *Table A8: Robustness test using defense spending for armed probit armedprogram total lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense lnsipri , cluster(cowcc) estimates store m1 esttab m1 using TableA8.rtf, replace onecell se pr2 t(3) b(a3) scalars(ll) legend label collabels(none) varlabels(_cons Constant) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) order (total lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense lnsipri) estimates clear *Table A9: Robustness test for advanced and armed gen advancedarmed=0 replace advancedarmed=1 if advanced==1 & armedpossession==1 label var advancedarmed "Possess Armed, Advanced Drone: 1 = Yes, 0 = No" probit advancedarmed terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense, cluster(cowcc) eststo m1 esttab m1 using TableA9.rtf, replace onecell se pr2 t(3) b(a3) scalars(ll) legend label collabels(none) varlabels(_cons Constant) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) order (terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense) estimates clear *Table A10: Use alternate DVs probit armedprogramB terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense, cluster(cowcc) eststo m1 probit armedprogramC terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense, cluster(cowcc) eststo m2 esttab m1 m2 using TableA10.rtf, replace onecell se pr2 t(3) b(a3) scalars(ll) legend label collabels(none) varlabels(_cons Constant) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) order (terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense) estimates clear *Table A11: Seemingly Unrelated Probit biprobit (advanced = terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense) (armedprogram = terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense) eststo m1 esttab m1 using TableA11.rtf, replace onecell se pr2 t(3) b(a3) scalars(ll) legend label collabels(none) varlabels(_cons Constant) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) order (terrdisputes lnnterr5 autocrat democrat lngdpcap defense) *Robustness test for whether the DV should be ordered *Evidence that having advanced UAVs is different from pursuing armed UAVs list cowcc statenme advanced if armedprogram==1 corr advanced armedprogram