clear all
 cd "D:\Dropbox\Documents\Papers\Indebted Disputes\data\IO Final"
 
 use "Betz Kerner 2015 Replication.dta"
 
* Table 1: REER overvaluation
xtset iso3n year
nbreg disputes c.l.changereserves l.gdp_capita l.lntrade l.lngdp l.count_ if marker == 1 & wto == 1 & prior == 0 & floaters == 0, robust cluster(iso3n) nolrtest nolog
estimates store m1
nbreg disputes c.l.index l.gdp_capita l.lntrade l.lngdp l.count_  if marker == 1 & wto == 1 & prior == 0 & floaters == 0, robust cluster(iso3n) nolrtest nolog
estimates store m2
nbreg disputes c.l.index2 l.gdp_capita l.lntrade l.lngdp l.count_  if marker == 1 & wto == 1 & prior == 0 & floaters == 0, robust cluster(iso3n) nolrtest nolog
estimates store m3
nbreg disputes c.l.lnovervalued_res l.gdp_capita l.lntrade l.lngdp l.count_  if marker == 1 & wto == 1 & prior == 0 & floaters == 0, robust cluster(iso3n) nolrtest nolog
estimates store m4
nbreg disputes c.l.overvalued l.gdp_capita l.lntrade l.lngdp l.count_ if marker == 1 & wto == 1 & prior == 0 & floaters == 0, robust cluster(iso3n) nolrtest nolog
estimates store m5

esttab * using "Table1.csv", compress replace star(* .10 ** .05 *** .01) b(%5.3f) p(%5.3f) stats(N N_clust, fmt(0 0) label("Number Obs." "Number Countries"))


* Figure 1: EMP measure sensitivity
xtset iso3n year
capture drop sig* insig insig axis combo
gen sig5 = .
gen sig10 = .
gen insig = .
gen axis = .
gen combo = .

local i = 1
qui while `i' < 22 {
local alpha = (`i'-1)/20
replace combo = `alpha'*changereserves + (1-`alpha')*(d.irate/l.irate)
qui nbreg disputes l.combo l.gdp_capita l.lntrade l.lngdp  l.count_  if marker == 1 & wto == 1 & prior == 0 & floaters == 0, robust cluster(iso3n) nolrtest nolog
replace sig5 = _b[l.combo] if _n == `i' & abs(_b[l.combo]/_se[l.combo]) >= abs(invttail(e(N),.975))
replace sig10 = _b[l.combo] if _n == `i' & abs(_b[l.combo]/_se[l.combo]) < abs(invttail(e(N),.975)) & abs(_b[l.combo]/_se[l.combo]) >= abs(invttail(e(N),.95)) 
replace insig = _b[l.combo] if _n == `i' & abs(_b[l.combo]/_se[l.combo]) < abs(invttail(e(N),.95)) 

replace axis = `alpha' if _n == `i'
local i = `i' + 1
}
label var sig5 "significant at 5%"
label var sig10 "significant at 10%"
label var insig "not significant at 10%"

twoway scatter sig5 axis, msymbol(x) msize(large) mcolor(gs2) || scatter sig10 axis, msymbol(t) msize(medsmall) mcolor(gs6) || scatter insig axis, msymbol(o) msize(medsmall) mcolor(gs10) yscale(r(0 2.5)) ylabel(0(.5)2.5) legend(rows(2)) ytitle("Coefficient") xtitle("Weight on reserve loss") subtitle("Figure 1: EMP-based measures of Overvaluation") scheme(s1mono)



* Table 2: robustness
nbreg disputes c.l.changereserves##i.floater l.gdp_capita l.lntrade l.lngdp  l.count_  if marker == 1 & wto == 1 & prior == 0, robust cluster(iso3n) nolrtest nolog
estimates store m1
logit dispute c.l.changereserves l.gdp_capita l.lntrade l.lngdp  l.count_  if marker == 1 & wto == 1 & prior == 0 & floaters == 0, robust cluster(iso3n) nolog
estimates store m2
nbreg disputes c.l.changereserves l.gdp_capita l.lntrade l.lngdp l.count_ ye ye2 ye3 if marker == 1 & wto == 1 & prior == 0 & floaters == 0, robust cluster(iso3n) nolrtest nolog
estimates store m3
qui nbreg disputes c.l.changereserves l.gdp_capita l.lntrade l.lngdp l.count_ if marker == 1 & wto == 1 & prior == 0 & floaters == 0, robust cluster(iso3n) nolrtest nolog
local alpha = e(alpha)
xtgee disputes c.l.changereserves l.gdp_capita l.lntrade l.lngdp l.count_ if marker == 1 & wto == 1 & prior == 0 & floaters == 0, robust corr(ar 1) force fam(nb `alpha')
estimates store m4
nbreg disputes c.l.changereserves l.gdp_growth l.gdp_capita l.lntrade l.lngdp l.count_ if marker == 1 & wto == 1 & prior == 0 & floaters == 0, robust cluster(iso3n) nolrtest nolog
estimates store m5
nbreg disputes c.l.changereserves l.ex_elec l.leg_elec l.gdp_capita l.lntrade l.lngdp  l.count_  if marker == 1 & wto == 1 & prior == 0 & floaters == 0, robust cluster(iso3n) nolrtest nolog
estimates store m6

esttab * using "Table2.csv", compress replace star(* .10 ** .05 *** .01) b(%5.3f) p(%5.3f) stats(N N_clust, fmt(0 0) label("Number Obs." "Number Countries"))


* Table 3: additional results
nbreg disputes c.l.changereserves l.gdp_capita l.lntrade l.lngdp  l.count_  if marker == 1 & wto == 1 & floaters == 0, robust cluster(iso3n) nolrtest nolog
estimates store m1
nbreg disputes c.l.changereserves##i.prior l.gdp_capita l.lntrade l.lngdp  l.count_  if marker == 1 & wto == 1 & floaters == 0, robust cluster(iso3n) nolrtest nolog
estimates store m2
nbreg disputes c.l.lnovervalued_res##i.prior l.gdp_capita l.lntrade l.lngdp  l.count_  if marker == 1 & wto == 1 & floaters == 0, robust cluster(iso3n) nolrtest nolog
estimates store m3
nbreg disputes c.l.overvalued##i.prior l.gdp_capita l.lntrade l.lngdp  l.count_  if marker == 1 & wto == 1 & floaters == 0, robust cluster(iso3n) nolrtest nolog
estimates store m4

nbreg disputes c.l.changereserves##l.c.logfordebt l.gdp_capita l.lntrade l.lngdp  l.count_ if marker == 1 & wto == 1 & prior == 0 & floaters == 0, robust cluster(iso3n) nolrtest nolog
estimates store m5
nbreg disputes c.l.changereserves##l.c.foreign_currency l.gdp_capita l.lntrade l.lngdp  l.count_  if marker == 1 & wto == 1 & prior == 0 & floaters == 0, robust cluster(iso3n) nolrtest nolog
estimates store m6
nbreg disputes c.l.lnovervalued_res##l.c.logfordebt l.gdp_capita l.lntrade l.lngdp  l.count_ if marker == 1 & wto == 1 & prior == 0 & floaters == 0, robust cluster(iso3n) nolrtest nolog
estimates store m7
nbreg disputes c.l.overvalued##l.c.logfordebt l.gdp_capita l.lntrade l.lngdp  l.count_  if marker == 1 & wto == 1 & prior == 0 & floaters == 0, robust cluster(iso3n) nolrtest nolog
estimates store m8

esttab * using "Table3.csv", compress replace star(* .10 ** .05 *** .01) b(%5.3f) p(%5.3f) stats(N N_clust, fmt(0 0) label("Number Obs." "Number Countries"))


* Figure 2: 
nbreg disputes c.l.changereserves##l.c.logfordebt l.gdp_capita l.lntrade l.lngdp  l.count_  if marker == 1 & wto == 1 & prior == 0 & floaters == 0, robust cluster(iso3n) nolrtest nolog
	matrix coef = e(b)
	matrix var = e(V)
gen include = 1 if e(sample) == 1

set obs 7000
drawnorm b1-b9, means(coef) cov(var) seed(50)


capture drop ratio_resdebt
capture drop axis upper lower mean
capture drop lower upper avg axis
capture drop lower
capture drop upper
capture drop axis
capture drop avg
gen ratio_resdebt = .
gen lower = .
gen upper = .
gen avg  = .
gen axis = .


local a = 1
qui while `a' <= 29 {
local d = 18 + .25*`a' 
qui forvalues i = 1/5000 {
capture drop xb_mean xb_above p_mean p_above
gen xb_mean = b1[`i']*0 + b2[`i']*`d' + b3[`i']*0*`d' + b4[`i']*l.gdp_capita + b5[`i']*l.lntrade + b6[`i']*l.lngdp + b7[`i']*l.count_disputes + b8[`i']*1 if marker == 1 & wto == 1 & prior == 0 & floaters == 0
gen xb_above = b1[`i']*.25 + b2[`i']*`d' + b3[`i']*.25*`d' + b4[`i']*l.gdp_capita + b5[`i']*l.lntrade + b6[`i']*l.lngdp + b7[`i']*l.count_disputes + b8[`i']*1 if marker == 1 & wto == 1 & prior == 0 & floaters == 0
gen p_mean = exp(xb_mean) if include == 1 
gen p_above = exp(xb_above) if include == 1 
su p_mean
local stable = r(mean)
su p_above
local loss = r(mean)
replace ratio_resdebt = (`loss' - `stable') if _n == `i'
}
su ratio_resdebt
replace avg = r(mean) if _n == `a'
centile ratio_resdebt, c(2.5 97.5)
replace upper = r(c_2) if _n == `a'
replace lower = r(c_1) if _n == `a'
replace axis = `d' if _n == `a'
local a = `a' + 1
}


capture drop insig sig*
gen insig = avg if lower < 0 & lower != . 
gen sig = avg if lower > 0 & lower != .

label var sig "significant at 5%"
label var insig "not significant at 5%"

twoway hist logfordebt if include == 1, yaxis(2) frequen fcolor(gs16) lcolor(gs14) || scatter sig axis, msymbol(x) msize(large) || scatter insig axis, msymbol(o) msize(medsmall) yscale(r(0 .3)) ylabel(0(.1).3) legend(rows(2)) legend(order(2 3)) xtitle("Log foreign currency debt") ytitle("Marginal effect overvaluation") subtitle("Figure 2: Marginal Effect Overvaluation")  scheme(s1mono)