//  authors:    Navin A. Bapat, Bo Ram Kwon
//  project:    IO publication Fall 2014
//  date: 	    9-1-2014


//#1:
version 12      
clear all         
set linesize 80   
set more off

//#2. Creating the Full Sanctions Sample 

use "C:\Users\User1\Documents\Dropbox\Publications\IO submit 2011-2013\Final revision 2013\BapatKwonIO5.29.2013.dta


	* drop non-states
	drop if ccode2>=1000
	drop if ccode2==-99
	drop if ccode1==-99
	drop if ccode1>=1000


	* restrict senders to OECD countries (29 between 1970-2000)
	keep if ccode1==2|ccode1==20|ccode1==70|ccode1==200|ccode1==205|ccode1==210| ///
	ccode1==211|ccode1==212|ccode1==220|ccode1==225|ccode1==230|ccode1==235| ///
	ccode1==255|ccode1==290|ccode1==305|ccode1==310|ccode1==316|ccode1==325| ///
	ccode1==350|ccode1==375|ccode1==380|ccode1==385|ccode1==390|ccode1==395| ///
	ccode1==640|ccode1==732|ccode1==740|ccode1==900|ccode1==920


	* drop sanctions that are not associated with firm-level transactions
	drop if sanctiontype==6|sanctiontype==8|sanctiontype==10

	* code: 4 export restriction, 6 asset freeze, 7 foreign aid, 8 travel ban, 10 other 
	* keep sanctiontype=-99, no sanctions imposed


	gen success4=1 if imposition==1 & success1==1
	replace success4=0 if success4==.

	tab imposition success1
	* success rate given sanctions were imposed = (86/351)*100=24.5%


// Table #4. Estimates of the Effect of Sender Market Share on Success and Imposition 

* full model				
	heckprob success1 sendermktshare sendermktsharesq targettradeproportion sendertradeproportion ///
	majorpolicygoal targetregime rivalry multilateral, ///
	sel(imposition =  sendermktshare sendermktsharesq targettradeproportion ///
					  sendertradeproportion tradeissue targetregime) cluster(ccode2)

	*rivalry drops out from selection equation

* key variable model

	heckprob success1 sendermktshare sendermktsharesq targettradeproportion multilateral, ///
	sel(imposition =  sendermktshare sendermktsharesq targettradeproportion sendertradeproportion ///
					  tradeissue targetregime) cluster(ccode2)	



// Table #5. Estimates of the Effect of Sender Market Share on Success and Imposition

	probit success4 sendermktshare sendermktsharesq targettradeproportion sendertradeproportion ///
	       majorpolicygoal multilateral targetregime rivalry
	
	probit imposition sendermktshare sendermktsharesq targettradeproportion ///
	sendertradeproportion tradeissue targetregime 		
											
	*rivalry drops out from selection equation		



// Figures #4, #5. Predicted Probability of Success & Imposition
			
	* full model				
	heckprob success1 sendermktshare sendermktsharesq targettradeproportion sendertradeproportion ///
	majorpolicygoal targetregime rivalry multilateral, ///
	sel(imposition =  sendermktshare sendermktsharesq targettradeproportion ///
					  sendertradeproportion tradeissue targetregime) cluster(ccode2)

					  
 	predict pcond, pcond
 	predict psel, psel
 
 	graph twoway qfitci pcond sendermktshare
 	graph twoway qfitci psel sendermktshare
					

****************** Online Appendix ******************

// Table #6. Descriptive Statistics (Full Sample)

	sum imposition success4 sendermktshare targettradeproportion sendertradeproportion rivalry ///
	multilateral targetregime majorpolicygoal tradeissue


// Table #7. Descriptive Statistics (Unilateral Sanctions Sample)


    drop if multilateral ==1
	
	sum imposition success4 sendermktshare targettradeproportion sendertradeproportion rivalry ///
	targetregime majorpolicygoal tradeissue
	
	
// Table #8. Estimates of the Effect of Sender Market Share on Success and Imposition (Unilateral Sanctions Sample)


* full model 

	heckprob success1 sendermktshare sendermktsharesq targettradeproportion sendertradeproportion ///
	majorpolicygoal targetregime rivalry, ///
	sel(imposition =  sendermktshare sendermktsharesq targettradeproportion ///
					  sendertradeproportion tradeissue targetregime) cluster(ccode2)

    *rivalry drops out from selection equation	
																

* key variable model 

	heckprob success1 sendermktshare sendermktsharesq targettradeproportion, ///
	sel(imposition =  sendermktshare sendermktsharesq targettradeproportion sendertradeproportion ///
					  tradeissue targetregime) cluster(ccode2)	

    *rivalry drops out from selection equation