{smcl}
{com}{sf}{ul off}{txt}{.-}
      name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}E:\Jesse's Documents\Alliance Restraint\IO Data\FangJohnson&LeedsIOrep\FangJohnson&LeedsIOrep.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}opened on:  {res}20 Jun 2013, 18:08:57

{com}. do "E:\Jesse's Documents\Alliance Restraint\IO Data\FangJohnson&LeedsIOrep\FangJohnson&LeedsIOrep.do"
{txt}
{com}. * Replication File for "To Concede or To Resist? The Restraining Effect of Military Alliances"
. * 06/20/13
. 
. use "E:\Jesse's Documents\Alliance Restraint\IO Data\FangJohnson&LeedsIOrep\FangJohnson&LeedsIOrep.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. set more off
{txt}
{com}. 
. ******************************
. *** Descriptive Statistics ***
. ******************************
. 
. sum year

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 8}year {c |}{res}    585467    1975.103    24.07121       1816       2000
{txt}
{com}. tab dispute

      {txt}codes {c |}
whether the {c |}
 challenger {c |}
initiated a {c |}
    dispute {c |}
against the {c |}
  target in {c |}
  the given {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}    584,382       99.81       99.81
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}      1,085        0.19      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}    585,467      100.00
{txt}
{com}. tab targ_resist

      {txt}codes {c |}
whether the {c |}
     target {c |}
resisted in {c |}
  the given {c |}
       year {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}        592       54.56       54.56
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}        493       45.44      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}      1,085      100.00
{txt}
{com}. sum ally_cost, d

        {txt}target's cost of damaging its alliance in the
             given year: cap_ally/(cap_ally+cap
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res} .0136496       .0009304
{txt} 5%    {res} .1469741       .0009304
{txt}10%    {res} .2713885       .0009821       {txt}Obs         {res}       1085
{txt}25%    {res} .6219495       .0009821       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}       1085

{txt}50%    {res} .9046118                      {txt}Mean          {res}  .768011
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} .2752285
{txt}75%    {res} .9732276       .9997436
{txt}90%    {res} .9929399       .9997739       {txt}Variance      {res} .0757507
{txt}95%    {res} .9965795        .999862       {txt}Skewness      {res}-1.276879
{txt}99%    {res} .9990184        .999887       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 3.501036
{txt}
{com}. 
. ***************
. *** Table 2 ***
. ***************
. 
. heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-747.54181}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-740.12647}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-740.11934}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-740.11934}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.5444}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6998.7095}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6609.7101}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9402}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9372}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9372}  
{res}
{txt}Comparison:    log likelihood = {res}-7346.0566

{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-752.06469}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-713.67515}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-713.58028}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-713.58027}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7321.0049}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7319.4996}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7319.3404}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7319.3399}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}   585467
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}   584382
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}     1085

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}4{txt})       = {res}    29.72
{txt}Log likelihood = {res} -7319.34                      {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}targ_resist  {txt}{c |}
{space 3}ally_cost {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4043512{col 26}{space 2} .1365033{col 37}{space 1}   -2.96{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4}-.6718928{col 67}{space 3}-.1368095
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2701406{col 26}{space 2} .1360637{col 37}{space 1}   -1.99{col 46}{space 3}0.047{col 54}{space 4}-.5368206{col 67}{space 3}-.0034606
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4349749{col 26}{space 2} .1143149{col 37}{space 1}   -3.81{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.659028{col 67}{space 3}-.2109219
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}   .21674{col 26}{space 2} .1180775{col 37}{space 1}    1.84{col 46}{space 3}0.066{col 54}{space 4}-.0146877{col 67}{space 3} .4481677
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.629253{col 26}{space 2} .2018688{col 37}{space 1}    8.07{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.233597{col 67}{space 3} 2.024909
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}   .27669{col 26}{space 2} .0425762{col 37}{space 1}    6.50{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1932421{col 67}{space 3} .3601378
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4103379{col 26}{space 2}  .035826{col 37}{space 1}   11.45{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3401203{col 67}{space 3} .4805555
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0617515{col 26}{space 2} .0322936{col 37}{space 1}   -1.91{col 46}{space 3}0.056{col 54}{space 4}-.1250458{col 67}{space 3} .0015428
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4034405{col 26}{space 2} .0098722{col 37}{space 1}  -40.87{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4227897{col 67}{space 3}-.3840913
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0557893{col 26}{space 2} .0360649{col 37}{space 1}   -1.55{col 46}{space 3}0.122{col 54}{space 4}-.1264752{col 67}{space 3} .0148966
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5125893{col 26}{space 2} .0528229{col 37}{space 1}   -9.70{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6161202{col 67}{space 3}-.4090583
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0434911{col 26}{space 2} .0018946{col 37}{space 1}  -22.95{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0472045{col 67}{space 3}-.0397777
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006618{col 26}{space 2}  .000037{col 37}{space 1}   17.91{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005893{col 67}{space 3} .0007342
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.71e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.86e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.58{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.08e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.35e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.026173{col 26}{space 2} .0978534{col 37}{space 1}   10.49{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .834384{col 67}{space 3} 1.217962
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     /athrho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2} -.578801{col 26}{space 2} .0762609{col 37}{space 1}   -7.59{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7282697{col 67}{space 3}-.4293324
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.5217935{col 26}{space 2} .0554975{col 54}{space 4}-.6220056{col 67}{space 3}-.4047632
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}   53.43   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0000
{txt}{hline 78}

{com}. 
. *********************************
. *** Table 2 Robustness Checks ***
. *********************************
. 
.         * Coding ally resistance as target resistance
. 
.                 heckprob ally_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3) 

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-748.24408}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-740.85325}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-740.84554}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-740.84554}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.5444}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6998.7095}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6609.7101}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9402}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9372}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9372}  
{res}
{txt}Comparison:    log likelihood = {res}-7346.7828

{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-752.06469}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -715.1547}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-715.04752}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-715.04751}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7322.3214}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7320.9363}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7320.8324}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7320.8322}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}   585467
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}   584382
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}     1085

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}4{txt})       = {res}    29.28
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-7320.832                      {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}ally_resist  {txt}{c |}
{space 3}ally_cost {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  -.38146{col 26}{space 2} .1370278{col 37}{space 1}   -2.78{col 46}{space 3}0.005{col 54}{space 4}-.6500295{col 67}{space 3}-.1128904
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2718701{col 26}{space 2}   .13651{col 37}{space 1}   -1.99{col 46}{space 3}0.046{col 54}{space 4}-.5394249{col 67}{space 3}-.0043154
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4399004{col 26}{space 2} .1147178{col 37}{space 1}   -3.83{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6647431{col 67}{space 3}-.2150576
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1985481{col 26}{space 2} .1182838{col 37}{space 1}    1.68{col 46}{space 3}0.093{col 54}{space 4}-.0332839{col 67}{space 3} .4303802
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.610434{col 26}{space 2} .2033363{col 37}{space 1}    7.92{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.211902{col 67}{space 3} 2.008966
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2765577{col 26}{space 2} .0425758{col 37}{space 1}    6.50{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1931107{col 67}{space 3} .3600046
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4103896{col 26}{space 2} .0358254{col 37}{space 1}   11.46{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3401731{col 67}{space 3}  .480606
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0618465{col 26}{space 2}  .032294{col 37}{space 1}   -1.92{col 46}{space 3}0.055{col 54}{space 4}-.1251416{col 67}{space 3} .0014486
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4035297{col 26}{space 2} .0098716{col 37}{space 1}  -40.88{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4228777{col 67}{space 3}-.3841817
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0562615{col 26}{space 2} .0360925{col 37}{space 1}   -1.56{col 46}{space 3}0.119{col 54}{space 4}-.1270014{col 67}{space 3} .0144784
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5131631{col 26}{space 2}  .052838{col 37}{space 1}   -9.71{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6167237{col 67}{space 3}-.4096026
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0434863{col 26}{space 2} .0018954{col 37}{space 1}  -22.94{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0472011{col 67}{space 3}-.0397714
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .000662{col 26}{space 2}  .000037{col 37}{space 1}   17.91{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005896{col 67}{space 3} .0007345
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.71e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.86e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.58{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.08e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.35e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.027168{col 26}{space 2} .0978459{col 37}{space 1}   10.50{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8353931{col 67}{space 3} 1.218942
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     /athrho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.5693684{col 26}{space 2} .0761469{col 37}{space 1}   -7.48{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7186136{col 67}{space 3}-.4201232
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.5148953{col 26}{space 2} .0559591{col 54}{space 4}-.6160498{col 67}{space 3}-.3970342
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}   51.90   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0000
{txt}{hline 78}

{com}. 
.         * Coding target resistance with different hostility levels
.         
.                 heckprob targ_resist3 ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3) 

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-742.87698}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -734.4515}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-734.44204}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-734.44204}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.5444}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6998.7095}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6609.7101}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9402}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9372}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9372}  
{res}
{txt}Comparison:    log likelihood = {res}-7340.3793

{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-752.06469}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-707.61708}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-707.53149}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-707.53148}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7315.1324}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7313.5252}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -7313.214}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7313.2127}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7313.2127}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}   585467
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}   584382
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}     1085

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}4{txt})       = {res}    31.43
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-7313.213                      {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}targ_resist3 {txt}{c |}
{space 3}ally_cost {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4336731{col 26}{space 2} .1362569{col 37}{space 1}   -3.18{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}-.7007316{col 67}{space 3}-.1666146
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2963993{col 26}{space 2} .1365527{col 37}{space 1}   -2.17{col 46}{space 3}0.030{col 54}{space 4}-.5640376{col 67}{space 3} -.028761
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4303836{col 26}{space 2} .1145581{col 37}{space 1}   -3.76{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6549134{col 67}{space 3}-.2058538
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2762879{col 26}{space 2} .1183871{col 37}{space 1}    2.33{col 46}{space 3}0.020{col 54}{space 4} .0442535{col 67}{space 3} .5083223
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.593533{col 26}{space 2} .2026296{col 37}{space 1}    7.86{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.196386{col 67}{space 3}  1.99068
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .276784{col 26}{space 2}  .042572{col 37}{space 1}    6.50{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1933443{col 67}{space 3} .3602236
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4104086{col 26}{space 2} .0358237{col 37}{space 1}   11.46{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3401954{col 67}{space 3} .4806217
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.061541{col 26}{space 2} .0322973{col 37}{space 1}   -1.91{col 46}{space 3}0.057{col 54}{space 4}-.1248424{col 67}{space 3} .0017605
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4037636{col 26}{space 2} .0098692{col 37}{space 1}  -40.91{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4231068{col 67}{space 3}-.3844204
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.053966{col 26}{space 2} .0359877{col 37}{space 1}   -1.50{col 46}{space 3}0.134{col 54}{space 4}-.1245006{col 67}{space 3} .0165685
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5102525{col 26}{space 2} .0528352{col 37}{space 1}   -9.66{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6138076{col 67}{space 3}-.4066974
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0434036{col 26}{space 2} .0018945{col 37}{space 1}  -22.91{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0471168{col 67}{space 3}-.0396904
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006605{col 26}{space 2} .0000369{col 37}{space 1}   17.88{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005881{col 67}{space 3} .0007328
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.70e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.86e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.56{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.07e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.34e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.025701{col 26}{space 2} .0978756{col 37}{space 1}   10.48{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8338687{col 67}{space 3} 1.217534
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     /athrho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.5856812{col 26}{space 2} .0765454{col 37}{space 1}   -7.65{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7357074{col 67}{space 3} -.435655
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.5267824{col 26}{space 2} .0553041{col 54}{space 4}-.6265447{col 67}{space 3}-.4100364
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}   54.33   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0000
{txt}{hline 78}

{com}.                 heckprob targ_resist4 ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3) 

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-666.55629}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-656.28199}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -656.2448}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -656.2448}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.5444}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6998.7095}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6609.7101}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9402}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9372}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9372}  
{res}
{txt}Comparison:    log likelihood = {res} -7262.182

{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-752.06469}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-627.51899}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-627.11149}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-627.11142}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7241.3467}  (not concave)
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7235.5939}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7232.8152}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7232.7535}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7232.7535}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}   585467
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}   584382
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}     1085

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}4{txt})       = {res}    37.06
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-7232.753                      {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}targ_resist4 {txt}{c |}
{space 3}ally_cost {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4838196{col 26}{space 2} .1375969{col 37}{space 1}   -3.52{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7535045{col 67}{space 3}-.2141346
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0471437{col 26}{space 2} .1394863{col 37}{space 1}   -0.34{col 46}{space 3}0.735{col 54}{space 4}-.3205319{col 67}{space 3} .2262444
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.625227{col 26}{space 2} .1258406{col 37}{space 1}   -4.97{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.8718701{col 67}{space 3} -.378584
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2974121{col 26}{space 2} .1220725{col 37}{space 1}    2.44{col 46}{space 3}0.015{col 54}{space 4} .0581544{col 67}{space 3} .5366698
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  1.40446{col 26}{space 2} .2078129{col 37}{space 1}    6.76{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .9971545{col 67}{space 3} 1.811766
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2761221{col 26}{space 2} .0425625{col 37}{space 1}    6.49{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1927012{col 67}{space 3} .3595431
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4108364{col 26}{space 2} .0358221{col 37}{space 1}   11.47{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3406262{col 67}{space 3} .4810465
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0617723{col 26}{space 2} .0322992{col 37}{space 1}   -1.91{col 46}{space 3}0.056{col 54}{space 4}-.1250775{col 67}{space 3}  .001533
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4044243{col 26}{space 2} .0098583{col 37}{space 1}  -41.02{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4237463{col 67}{space 3}-.3851023
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0536289{col 26}{space 2} .0359614{col 37}{space 1}   -1.49{col 46}{space 3}0.136{col 54}{space 4}-.1241119{col 67}{space 3} .0168541
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5115471{col 26}{space 2} .0527792{col 37}{space 1}   -9.69{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6149924{col 67}{space 3}-.4081019
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.043177{col 26}{space 2} .0018973{col 37}{space 1}  -22.76{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0468956{col 67}{space 3}-.0394584
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006568{col 26}{space 2}  .000037{col 37}{space 1}   17.74{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005843{col 67}{space 3} .0007294
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.69e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.86e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.43{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.06e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.33e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  1.02988{col 26}{space 2} .0977732{col 37}{space 1}   10.53{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8382477{col 67}{space 3} 1.221512
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     /athrho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.6334497{col 26}{space 2} .0785659{col 37}{space 1}   -8.06{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7874359{col 67}{space 3}-.4794635
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2} -.560423{col 26}{space 2} .0538904{col 54}{space 4} -.656954{col 67}{space 3}-.4458138
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}   58.86   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0000
{txt}{hline 78}

{com}.                 heckprob targ_resist5 ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3) 

{txt}Fitting probit model:

note: pchalneu != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      pchalneu dropped and 131 obs not used

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -85.31428}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-77.391089}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -76.20497}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-76.203771}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-76.203771}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.5444}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6998.7095}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6609.7101}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9402}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9372}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9372}  
{res}
{txt}Comparison:    log likelihood = {res} -6682.141

{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-752.06469}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-83.564377}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-76.566495}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75.719205}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75.588758}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75.563127}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75.558096}  
Iteration 7:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75.557261}  
Iteration 8:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75.557138}  
Iteration 9:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75.557112}  
Iteration 10:{space 2}log likelihood = {res:-75.557107}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6681.6692}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6681.4983}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6681.4976}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}   585467
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}   584382
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}     1085

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}4{txt})       = {res}    19.47
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6681.498                      {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0006

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}targ_resist5 {txt}{c |}
{space 3}ally_cost {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.021571{col 26}{space 2}  .360206{col 37}{space 1}   -2.84{col 46}{space 3}0.005{col 54}{space 4}-1.727562{col 67}{space 3}-.3155802
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .762649{col 26}{space 2} .2833344{col 37}{space 1}    2.69{col 46}{space 3}0.007{col 54}{space 4} .2073236{col 67}{space 3} 1.317974
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.581809{col 26}{space 2}  172.298{col 37}{space 1}   -0.03{col 46}{space 3}0.979{col 54}{space 4}-342.2797{col 67}{space 3} 333.1161
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .6087023{col 26}{space 2} .3678264{col 37}{space 1}    1.65{col 46}{space 3}0.098{col 54}{space 4}-.1122243{col 67}{space 3} 1.329629
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.046631{col 26}{space 2} .7269758{col 37}{space 1}   -1.44{col 46}{space 3}0.150{col 54}{space 4}-2.471477{col 67}{space 3} .3782155
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2766723{col 26}{space 2} .0425801{col 37}{space 1}    6.50{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1932169{col 67}{space 3} .3601277
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4106413{col 26}{space 2} .0358258{col 37}{space 1}   11.46{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .340424{col 67}{space 3} .4808587
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0619886{col 26}{space 2} .0322913{col 37}{space 1}   -1.92{col 46}{space 3}0.055{col 54}{space 4}-.1252783{col 67}{space 3} .0013012
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4043265{col 26}{space 2} .0098823{col 37}{space 1}  -40.91{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4236955{col 67}{space 3}-.3849575
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0450651{col 26}{space 2} .0361223{col 37}{space 1}   -1.25{col 46}{space 3}0.212{col 54}{space 4}-.1158636{col 67}{space 3} .0257334
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5217609{col 26}{space 2} .0534054{col 37}{space 1}   -9.77{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6264335{col 67}{space 3}-.4170883
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0433944{col 26}{space 2} .0019131{col 37}{space 1}  -22.68{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0471441{col 67}{space 3}-.0396447
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006619{col 26}{space 2} .0000373{col 37}{space 1}   17.73{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005888{col 67}{space 3} .0007351
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.72e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.88e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.46{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.09e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.35e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.036772{col 26}{space 2} .0979857{col 37}{space 1}   10.58{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8447232{col 67}{space 3}  1.22882
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     /athrho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.2467865{col 26}{space 2}  .212861{col 37}{space 1}   -1.16{col 46}{space 3}0.246{col 54}{space 4}-.6639863{col 67}{space 3} .1704134
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.2418955{col 26}{space 2} .2004058{col 54}{space 4}-.5810102{col 67}{space 3} .1687827
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}    1.29   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.2567
{txt}{hline 78}

{com}. 
.         * Using only observations where the target had one bilateral alliance
.         
.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win if one_bilateral==1, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-182.96055}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-173.59263}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-173.56397}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-173.56397}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1816.0581}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1555.4266}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1452.2314}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1450.8207}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1450.8195}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1450.8195}  
{res}
{txt}Comparison:    log likelihood = {res}-1624.3834

{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-182.99086}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-161.78907}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-161.75615}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-161.75614}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1617.5851}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1613.2552}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1612.4735}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1612.4553}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1612.4553}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}    94500
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}    94236
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}      264

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}4{txt})       = {res}    38.57
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-1612.455                      {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}targ_resist  {txt}{c |}
{space 3}ally_cost {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8502281{col 26}{space 2} .2087625{col 37}{space 1}   -4.07{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.259395{col 67}{space 3} -.441061
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.735403{col 26}{space 2} .2268931{col 37}{space 1}   -3.24{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}-1.180105{col 67}{space 3}-.2907006
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6173057{col 26}{space 2} .1929971{col 37}{space 1}   -3.20{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}-.9955731{col 67}{space 3}-.2390383
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .6449239{col 26}{space 2} .2335911{col 37}{space 1}    2.76{col 46}{space 3}0.006{col 54}{space 4} .1870937{col 67}{space 3} 1.102754
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.059799{col 26}{space 2} .2750493{col 37}{space 1}    7.49{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.520712{col 67}{space 3} 2.598886
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5952242{col 26}{space 2} .0803829{col 37}{space 1}    7.40{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4376766{col 67}{space 3} .7527718
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .6100031{col 26}{space 2} .0676933{col 37}{space 1}    9.01{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4773267{col 67}{space 3} .7426794
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2566491{col 26}{space 2} .0717877{col 37}{space 1}   -3.58{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3973503{col 67}{space 3}-.1159479
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4180277{col 26}{space 2} .0211977{col 37}{space 1}  -19.72{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4595745{col 67}{space 3}-.3764809
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2356908{col 26}{space 2} .0895987{col 37}{space 1}   -2.63{col 46}{space 3}0.009{col 54}{space 4}-.4113011{col 67}{space 3}-.0600805
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4233331{col 26}{space 2} .1630814{col 37}{space 1}   -2.60{col 46}{space 3}0.009{col 54}{space 4}-.7429667{col 67}{space 3}-.1036995
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0540719{col 26}{space 2}  .004943{col 37}{space 1}  -10.94{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0637601{col 67}{space 3}-.0443837
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0009155{col 26}{space 2} .0001124{col 37}{space 1}    8.15{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006953{col 67}{space 3} .0011358
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.14e-06{col 26}{space 2} 6.58e-07{col 37}{space 1}   -6.29{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-5.43e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.85e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.307252{col 26}{space 2} .2309565{col 37}{space 1}    5.66{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8545859{col 67}{space 3} 1.759919
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     /athrho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.7694311{col 26}{space 2} .1503518{col 37}{space 1}   -5.12{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.064115{col 67}{space 3} -.474747
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.6465985{col 26}{space 2} .0874913{col 54}{space 4}-.7872338{col 67}{space 3}-.4420268
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}   23.86   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0000
{txt}{hline 78}

{com}. 
.         * Using only observations where the target's allies were all members of the same multilateral alliance
.         
.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win if one_sub_multilateral==1, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-544.65607}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-540.23489}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-540.23001}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-540.23001}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5802.3681}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -5086.307}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4679.2551}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4675.5697}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4675.5664}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4675.5664}  
{res}
{txt}Comparison:    log likelihood = {res}-5215.7964

{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-547.58627}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-513.69597}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-513.66159}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-513.66159}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5191.2818}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5189.3714}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5189.1381}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5189.1374}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5189.1374}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}   450305
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}   449515
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}      790

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}4{txt})       = {res}    19.85
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-5189.137                      {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0005

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}targ_resist  {txt}{c |}
{space 3}ally_cost {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4912753{col 26}{space 2} .1524591{col 37}{space 1}   -3.22{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}-.7900897{col 67}{space 3}-.1924608
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3504656{col 26}{space 2} .1525593{col 37}{space 1}   -2.30{col 46}{space 3}0.022{col 54}{space 4}-.6494763{col 67}{space 3}-.0514549
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2900817{col 26}{space 2} .1367566{col 37}{space 1}   -2.12{col 46}{space 3}0.034{col 54}{space 4}-.5581198{col 67}{space 3}-.0220437
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2038701{col 26}{space 2} .1394821{col 37}{space 1}    1.46{col 46}{space 3}0.144{col 54}{space 4}-.0695098{col 67}{space 3} .4772501
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.733984{col 26}{space 2} .2113104{col 37}{space 1}    8.21{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.319823{col 67}{space 3} 2.148144
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3342601{col 26}{space 2} .0491207{col 37}{space 1}    6.80{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2379853{col 67}{space 3} .4305349
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3909871{col 26}{space 2} .0435013{col 37}{space 1}    8.99{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3057262{col 67}{space 3} .4762481
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0441492{col 26}{space 2} .0396306{col 37}{space 1}    1.11{col 46}{space 3}0.265{col 54}{space 4}-.0335254{col 67}{space 3} .1218238
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4206009{col 26}{space 2}  .011454{col 37}{space 1}  -36.72{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4430504{col 67}{space 3}-.3981514
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0718478{col 26}{space 2} .0410382{col 37}{space 1}   -1.75{col 46}{space 3}0.080{col 54}{space 4}-.1522812{col 67}{space 3} .0085856
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0105141{col 26}{space 2} .0701974{col 37}{space 1}    0.15{col 46}{space 3}0.881{col 54}{space 4}-.1270703{col 67}{space 3} .1480986
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0402809{col 26}{space 2} .0022328{col 37}{space 1}  -18.04{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.044657{col 67}{space 3}-.0359047
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006061{col 26}{space 2}  .000043{col 37}{space 1}   14.10{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005219{col 67}{space 3} .0006904
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.47e-06{col 26}{space 2} 2.14e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -11.57{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.89e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.05e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .6517129{col 26}{space 2}  .118591{col 37}{space 1}    5.50{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4192789{col 67}{space 3} .8841469
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     /athrho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.6136848{col 26}{space 2} .0809684{col 37}{space 1}   -7.58{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  -.77238{col 67}{space 3}-.4549895
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.5467157{col 26}{space 2} .0567671{col 54}{space 4}-.6483112{col 67}{space 3}-.4259917
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}   53.32   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0000
{txt}{hline 78}

{com}. 
.         * Coding the target's costs of damaging its alliance only using the target's strongest alliance
.         
.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost_strongest pchaloff pchalneu c_win, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-747.54181}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-740.31105}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-740.30426}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-740.30426}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.5444}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6998.7095}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6609.7101}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9402}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9372}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9372}  
{res}
{txt}Comparison:    log likelihood = {res}-7346.2415

{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-752.06469}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-713.77729}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-713.68758}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-713.68758}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7321.1356}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7319.5974}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -7319.438}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7319.4376}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}   585467
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}   584382
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}     1085

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}4{txt})       = {res}    29.60
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-7319.438                      {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}targ_resist  {txt}{c |}
ally_cost_~t {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3891834{col 26}{space 2} .1327334{col 37}{space 1}   -2.93{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4} -.649336{col 67}{space 3}-.1290309
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.267152{col 26}{space 2} .1358024{col 37}{space 1}   -1.97{col 46}{space 3}0.049{col 54}{space 4}-.5333197{col 67}{space 3}-.0009842
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4410734{col 26}{space 2} .1143276{col 37}{space 1}   -3.86{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6651514{col 67}{space 3}-.2169954
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2247399{col 26}{space 2} .1193301{col 37}{space 1}    1.88{col 46}{space 3}0.060{col 54}{space 4}-.0091428{col 67}{space 3} .4586227
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.614238{col 26}{space 2}  .199749{col 37}{space 1}    8.08{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.222738{col 67}{space 3} 2.005739
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .276726{col 26}{space 2} .0425757{col 37}{space 1}    6.50{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1932791{col 67}{space 3}  .360173
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4103479{col 26}{space 2} .0358254{col 37}{space 1}   11.45{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3401314{col 67}{space 3} .4805644
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0617452{col 26}{space 2} .0322946{col 37}{space 1}   -1.91{col 46}{space 3}0.056{col 54}{space 4}-.1250415{col 67}{space 3}  .001551
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4034307{col 26}{space 2} .0098722{col 37}{space 1}  -40.87{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4227799{col 67}{space 3}-.3840815
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0559419{col 26}{space 2} .0360634{col 37}{space 1}   -1.55{col 46}{space 3}0.121{col 54}{space 4} -.126625{col 67}{space 3} .0147411
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.511291{col 26}{space 2} .0528451{col 37}{space 1}   -9.68{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6148655{col 67}{space 3}-.4077164
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0434814{col 26}{space 2} .0018946{col 37}{space 1}  -22.95{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0471948{col 67}{space 3}-.0397681
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006616{col 26}{space 2}  .000037{col 37}{space 1}   17.90{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005892{col 67}{space 3} .0007341
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.71e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.86e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.58{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.07e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.35e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.025079{col 26}{space 2} .0978769{col 37}{space 1}   10.47{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8332434{col 67}{space 3} 1.216914
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     /athrho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.5814107{col 26}{space 2} .0764694{col 37}{space 1}   -7.60{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7312879{col 67}{space 3}-.4315335
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}  -.52369{col 26}{space 2} .0554976{col 54}{space 4}-.6238527{col 67}{space 3}-.4066021
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}   53.61   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0000
{txt}{hline 78}

{com}. 
.         * Controlling for the raw capabilities of the target
.         
.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win cap_targ, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-747.54181}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-736.35215}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-736.33449}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-736.33449}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.5444}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6998.7095}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6609.7101}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9402}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9372}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9372}  
{res}
{txt}Comparison:    log likelihood = {res}-7342.2717

{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-752.06469}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-713.02365}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-712.90534}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-712.90534}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -7320.101}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7318.7775}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7318.6965}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7318.6963}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}   585467
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}   584382
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}     1085

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}5{txt})       = {res}    30.40
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-7318.696                      {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}targ_resist  {txt}{c |}
{space 3}ally_cost {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5048934{col 26}{space 2} .1640628{col 37}{space 1}   -3.08{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}-.8264506{col 67}{space 3}-.1833362
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2650731{col 26}{space 2} .1372953{col 37}{space 1}   -1.93{col 46}{space 3}0.054{col 54}{space 4}-.5341668{col 67}{space 3} .0040207
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4104348{col 26}{space 2} .1175046{col 37}{space 1}   -3.49{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6407395{col 67}{space 3}  -.18013
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1648745{col 26}{space 2} .1275734{col 37}{space 1}    1.29{col 46}{space 3}0.196{col 54}{space 4}-.0851647{col 67}{space 3} .4149137
{txt}{space 4}cap_targ {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8895335{col 26}{space 2} .7923024{col 37}{space 1}   -1.12{col 46}{space 3}0.262{col 54}{space 4}-2.442418{col 67}{space 3} .6633507
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.723941{col 26}{space 2} .2191548{col 37}{space 1}    7.87{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.294405{col 67}{space 3} 2.153476
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2766705{col 26}{space 2} .0425792{col 37}{space 1}    6.50{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1932169{col 67}{space 3} .3601241
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4102355{col 26}{space 2} .0358285{col 37}{space 1}   11.45{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .340013{col 67}{space 3}  .480458
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0617589{col 26}{space 2} .0322898{col 37}{space 1}   -1.91{col 46}{space 3}0.056{col 54}{space 4}-.1250457{col 67}{space 3} .0015278
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.403368{col 26}{space 2} .0098751{col 37}{space 1}  -40.85{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4227229{col 67}{space 3}-.3840132
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0552233{col 26}{space 2} .0360875{col 37}{space 1}   -1.53{col 46}{space 3}0.126{col 54}{space 4}-.1259536{col 67}{space 3} .0155069
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5168379{col 26}{space 2}  .052952{col 37}{space 1}   -9.76{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6206219{col 67}{space 3}-.4130539
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0435589{col 26}{space 2} .0018963{col 37}{space 1}  -22.97{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0472757{col 67}{space 3}-.0398422
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006629{col 26}{space 2}  .000037{col 37}{space 1}   17.92{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005904{col 67}{space 3} .0007354
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.72e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.86e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.59{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.08e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.35e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.029245{col 26}{space 2} .0978503{col 37}{space 1}   10.52{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8374622{col 67}{space 3} 1.221028
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     /athrho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2} -.558656{col 26}{space 2} .0785797{col 37}{space 1}   -7.11{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7126694{col 67}{space 3}-.4046426
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.5069796{col 26}{space 2} .0583825{col 54}{space 4} -.612348{col 67}{space 3}-.3839143
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}   47.15   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0000
{txt}{hline 78}

{com}. 
.         * Including all allies capabilities in the challenger's probability of winning in war
.         
.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win_allies, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win_allies ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-747.54181}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-741.17801}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -741.1692}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -741.1692}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.5444}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6630.5787}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6113.418}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6085.2806}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6085.0318}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6085.0318}  
{res}
{txt}Comparison:    log likelihood = {res} -6826.201

{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-752.06469}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-713.02742}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-712.93884}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-712.93884}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6799.2091}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6797.8886}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6797.8154}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6797.8153}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}   585467
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}   584382
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}     1085

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}4{txt})       = {res}    53.16
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6797.815                      {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}targ_resist  {txt}{c |}
{space 3}ally_cost {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2705601{col 26}{space 2} .1283294{col 37}{space 1}   -2.11{col 46}{space 3}0.035{col 54}{space 4}-.5220812{col 67}{space 3}-.0190391
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4337334{col 26}{space 2} .1441085{col 37}{space 1}   -3.01{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4}-.7161809{col 67}{space 3}-.1512858
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5009304{col 26}{space 2}   .11618{col 37}{space 1}   -4.31{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7286389{col 67}{space 3}-.2732218
{txt}c_win_allies {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .9113476{col 26}{space 2} .1715819{col 37}{space 1}    5.31{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5750533{col 67}{space 3} 1.247642
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.361135{col 26}{space 2} .1874774{col 37}{space 1}    7.26{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .9936863{col 67}{space 3} 1.728584
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5150207{col 26}{space 2} .0445156{col 37}{space 1}   11.57{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4277717{col 67}{space 3} .6022697
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5691271{col 26}{space 2}  .038141{col 37}{space 1}   14.92{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4943721{col 67}{space 3} .6438821
{txt}c_win_allies {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.316987{col 26}{space 2}  .049509{col 37}{space 1}  -26.60{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.414023{col 67}{space 3}-1.219951
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4512899{col 26}{space 2} .0107375{col 37}{space 1}  -42.03{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.472335{col 67}{space 3}-.4302448
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1271576{col 26}{space 2} .0380032{col 37}{space 1}   -3.35{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}-.2016425{col 67}{space 3}-.0526728
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5821918{col 26}{space 2} .0556362{col 37}{space 1}  -10.46{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6912367{col 67}{space 3}-.4731469
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0441886{col 26}{space 2} .0019941{col 37}{space 1}  -22.16{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0480969{col 67}{space 3}-.0402803
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006692{col 26}{space 2} .0000388{col 37}{space 1}   17.25{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005932{col 67}{space 3} .0007452
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.73e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.95e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.04{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.11e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.35e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.795021{col 26}{space 2} .1057636{col 37}{space 1}   16.97{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.587729{col 67}{space 3} 2.002314
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     /athrho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.5614726{col 26}{space 2} .0723581{col 37}{space 1}   -7.76{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7032918{col 67}{space 3}-.4196533
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.5090692{col 26}{space 2} .0536064{col 54}{space 4}-.6064531{col 67}{space 3}-.3966383
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}   56.77   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0000
{txt}{hline 78}

{com}. 
.         * Using a two-step probit estimator
.         
.                 probit dispute pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.5444}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6998.7095}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6609.7101}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9402}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9372}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9372}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585467
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2607.21
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6605.9372{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1648

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2768089{col 26}{space 2}  .042582{col 37}{space 1}    6.50{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1933497{col 67}{space 3} .3602681
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4104974{col 26}{space 2} .0358269{col 37}{space 1}   11.46{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3402781{col 67}{space 3} .4807168
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0619373{col 26}{space 2} .0322897{col 37}{space 1}   -1.92{col 46}{space 3}0.055{col 54}{space 4}-.1252239{col 67}{space 3} .0013494
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4041791{col 26}{space 2} .0098846{col 37}{space 1}  -40.89{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4235526{col 67}{space 3}-.3848057
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0449467{col 26}{space 2} .0361272{col 37}{space 1}   -1.24{col 46}{space 3}0.213{col 54}{space 4}-.1157547{col 67}{space 3} .0258613
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5225369{col 26}{space 2} .0534081{col 37}{space 1}   -9.78{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6272147{col 67}{space 3} -.417859
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0434544{col 26}{space 2} .0019124{col 37}{space 1}  -22.72{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0472027{col 67}{space 3}-.0397061
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006629{col 26}{space 2} .0000373{col 37}{space 1}   17.76{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005898{col 67}{space 3} .0007361
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.72e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.88e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.48{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.09e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.35e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.036673{col 26}{space 2} .0979949{col 37}{space 1}   10.58{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .844606{col 67}{space 3} 1.228739
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.                 predict probitxb, xb
{txt}
{com}.                 gen pdfprobit = normalden(probitxb)
{txt}
{com}.                 gen cdfprobit = normal(probitxb)
{txt}
{com}.                 gen imr = pdfprobit/cdfprobit      
{txt}
{com}.                 probit targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win imr

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-747.54181}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-713.68934}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-713.58027}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-713.58027}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      1085
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}5{txt}){col 67}= {res}     67.92
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-713.58027{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0454

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1} targ_resist{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 3}ally_cost {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4641025{col 26}{space 2} .1597863{col 37}{space 1}   -2.90{col 46}{space 3}0.004{col 54}{space 4}-.7772778{col 67}{space 3}-.1509271
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3098587{col 26}{space 2} .1553724{col 37}{space 1}   -1.99{col 46}{space 3}0.046{col 54}{space 4}-.6143831{col 67}{space 3}-.0053344
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4977465{col 26}{space 2} .1321321{col 37}{space 1}   -3.77{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7567207{col 67}{space 3}-.2387723
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2475821{col 26}{space 2} .1345297{col 37}{space 1}    1.84{col 46}{space 3}0.066{col 54}{space 4}-.0160912{col 67}{space 3} .5112555
{txt}{space 9}imr {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5976941{col 26}{space 2} .0837976{col 37}{space 1}   -7.13{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7619344{col 67}{space 3}-.4334538
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.866979{col 26}{space 2} .2880475{col 37}{space 1}    6.48{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.302416{col 67}{space 3} 2.431542
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.                 drop probitxb pdfprobit cdfprobit imr
{txt}
{com}. 
.         * Using a probit estimator with selection variables
.         
.                 probit targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-747.54181}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-709.96172}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-709.85416}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-709.85414}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      1085
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}10{txt}){col 67}= {res}     75.38
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-709.85414{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0504

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1} targ_resist{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 3}ally_cost {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4199477{col 26}{space 2} .1653945{col 37}{space 1}   -2.54{col 46}{space 3}0.011{col 54}{space 4} -.744115{col 67}{space 3}-.0957805
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1552174{col 26}{space 2} .1559618{col 37}{space 1}   -1.00{col 46}{space 3}0.320{col 54}{space 4} -.460897{col 67}{space 3} .1504622
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3035319{col 26}{space 2} .1327492{col 37}{space 1}   -2.29{col 46}{space 3}0.022{col 54}{space 4}-.5637156{col 67}{space 3}-.0433483
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1961562{col 26}{space 2} .1363921{col 37}{space 1}    1.44{col 46}{space 3}0.150{col 54}{space 4}-.0711675{col 67}{space 3} .4634798
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1723555{col 26}{space 2} .0410665{col 37}{space 1}   -4.20{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2528443{col 67}{space 3}-.0918666
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3041353{col 26}{space 2} .1367379{col 37}{space 1}   -2.22{col 46}{space 3}0.026{col 54}{space 4}-.5721367{col 67}{space 3}-.0361338
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0166174{col 26}{space 2} .1930402{col 37}{space 1}    0.09{col 46}{space 3}0.931{col 54}{space 4}-.3617344{col 67}{space 3} .3949693
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.024288{col 26}{space 2} .0064236{col 37}{space 1}   -3.78{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0368781{col 67}{space 3}-.0116978
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0003238{col 26}{space 2} .0001269{col 37}{space 1}    2.55{col 46}{space 3}0.011{col 54}{space 4} .0000752{col 67}{space 3} .0005725
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.20e-06{col 26}{space 2} 6.26e-07{col 37}{space 1}   -1.92{col 46}{space 3}0.055{col 54}{space 4}-2.43e-06{col 67}{space 3} 2.45e-08
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.576637{col 26}{space 2} .4198694{col 37}{space 1}    3.76{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .7537082{col 67}{space 3} 2.399566
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
.         * Including each identifying variable in the outcome equation in turn
.                 
.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3) 

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-747.54181}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-725.18941}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-725.15699}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-725.15699}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.5444}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6998.7095}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6609.7101}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9402}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9372}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9372}  
{res}
{txt}Comparison:    log likelihood = {res}-7331.0942

{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-752.06469}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-713.60098}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-713.50403}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-713.50403}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7321.6412}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7320.0583}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7319.2505}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7319.2433}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7319.2433}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}   585467
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}   584382
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}     1085

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}5{txt})       = {res}    31.14
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-7319.243                      {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}targ_resist  {txt}{c |}
{space 3}ally_cost {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3843732{col 26}{space 2} .1412132{col 37}{space 1}   -2.72{col 46}{space 3}0.006{col 54}{space 4}-.6611461{col 67}{space 3}-.1076003
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2725008{col 26}{space 2} .1336429{col 37}{space 1}   -2.04{col 46}{space 3}0.041{col 54}{space 4} -.534436{col 67}{space 3}-.0105656
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4489246{col 26}{space 2} .1164053{col 37}{space 1}   -3.86{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6770749{col 67}{space 3}-.2207744
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2131647{col 26}{space 2} .1162748{col 37}{space 1}    1.83{col 46}{space 3}0.067{col 54}{space 4}-.0147297{col 67}{space 3} .4410591
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0206446{col 26}{space 2} .0461519{col 37}{space 1}    0.45{col 46}{space 3}0.655{col 54}{space 4}-.0698114{col 67}{space 3} .1111006
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.557805{col 26}{space 2}  .255148{col 37}{space 1}    6.11{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.057724{col 67}{space 3} 2.057886
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2765229{col 26}{space 2} .0425736{col 37}{space 1}    6.50{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1930803{col 67}{space 3} .3599656
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4105141{col 26}{space 2} .0358257{col 37}{space 1}   11.46{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .340297{col 67}{space 3} .4807312
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0618194{col 26}{space 2} .0322972{col 37}{space 1}   -1.91{col 46}{space 3}0.056{col 54}{space 4}-.1251208{col 67}{space 3} .0014819
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4036407{col 26}{space 2} .0098772{col 37}{space 1}  -40.87{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4229996{col 67}{space 3}-.3842818
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  -.05661{col 26}{space 2} .0360669{col 37}{space 1}   -1.57{col 46}{space 3}0.117{col 54}{space 4}-.1272999{col 67}{space 3} .0140798
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5100363{col 26}{space 2} .0530924{col 37}{space 1}   -9.61{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6140955{col 67}{space 3}-.4059771
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0433911{col 26}{space 2} .0019081{col 37}{space 1}  -22.74{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0471309{col 67}{space 3}-.0396513
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}   .00066{col 26}{space 2} .0000371{col 37}{space 1}   17.77{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005872{col 67}{space 3} .0007328
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.70e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.87e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.49{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.07e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.34e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.025097{col 26}{space 2} .0978478{col 37}{space 1}   10.48{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .833319{col 67}{space 3} 1.216875
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     /athrho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.6202411{col 26}{space 2}   .12041{col 37}{space 1}   -5.15{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.8562403{col 67}{space 3}-.3842418
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.5512958{col 26}{space 2} .0838141{col 54}{space 4}-.6943155{col 67}{space 3}-.3663855
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}   23.70   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0000
{txt}{hline 78}

{com}.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win jdem, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3) 

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-747.54181}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-737.38017}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-737.37218}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-737.37218}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.5444}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6998.7095}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6609.7101}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9402}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9372}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9372}  
{res}
{txt}Comparison:    log likelihood = {res}-7343.3094

{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-752.06469}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-711.55213}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-711.46764}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-711.46763}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7318.8458}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7317.3727}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7317.2488}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7317.2484}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}   585467
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}   584382
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}     1085

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}5{txt})       = {res}    33.81
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-7317.248                      {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}targ_resist  {txt}{c |}
{space 3}ally_cost {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3672484{col 26}{space 2} .1384017{col 37}{space 1}   -2.65{col 46}{space 3}0.008{col 54}{space 4}-.6385108{col 67}{space 3} -.095986
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2878355{col 26}{space 2} .1365279{col 37}{space 1}   -2.11{col 46}{space 3}0.035{col 54}{space 4}-.5554253{col 67}{space 3}-.0202457
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4390536{col 26}{space 2} .1144318{col 37}{space 1}   -3.84{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6633358{col 67}{space 3}-.2147713
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2018003{col 26}{space 2} .1187738{col 37}{space 1}    1.70{col 46}{space 3}0.089{col 54}{space 4} -.030992{col 67}{space 3} .4345927
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.238817{col 26}{space 2} .1178179{col 37}{space 1}   -2.03{col 46}{space 3}0.043{col 54}{space 4}-.4697358{col 67}{space 3}-.0078982
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.622319{col 26}{space 2} .2033915{col 37}{space 1}    7.98{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.223679{col 67}{space 3} 2.020959
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2777099{col 26}{space 2} .0425796{col 37}{space 1}    6.52{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1942554{col 67}{space 3} .3611644
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4102013{col 26}{space 2} .0358243{col 37}{space 1}   11.45{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3399869{col 67}{space 3} .4804157
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0613248{col 26}{space 2} .0322937{col 37}{space 1}   -1.90{col 46}{space 3}0.058{col 54}{space 4}-.1246193{col 67}{space 3} .0019697
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.403362{col 26}{space 2} .0098733{col 37}{space 1}  -40.85{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4227133{col 67}{space 3}-.3840106
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0452361{col 26}{space 2}  .036121{col 37}{space 1}   -1.25{col 46}{space 3}0.210{col 54}{space 4}-.1160318{col 67}{space 3} .0255597
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5118548{col 26}{space 2} .0528625{col 37}{space 1}   -9.68{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6154634{col 67}{space 3}-.4082463
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0434953{col 26}{space 2} .0018945{col 37}{space 1}  -22.96{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0472085{col 67}{space 3} -.039782
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006618{col 26}{space 2} .0000369{col 37}{space 1}   17.92{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005894{col 67}{space 3} .0007342
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.71e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.86e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.60{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.08e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.35e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.023837{col 26}{space 2}  .097917{col 37}{space 1}   10.46{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8319229{col 67}{space 3} 1.215751
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     /athrho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.5734504{col 26}{space 2} .0765887{col 37}{space 1}   -7.49{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7235615{col 67}{space 3}-.4233392
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.5178887{col 26}{space 2}  .056047{col 54}{space 4}-.6191105{col 67}{space 3}-.3997398
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}   52.12   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0000
{txt}{hline 78}

{com}.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win s_un_glo, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3) 

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-747.54181}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-736.26544}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-736.25432}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-736.25432}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.5444}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6998.7095}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6609.7101}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9402}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9372}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9372}  
{res}
{txt}Comparison:    log likelihood = {res}-7342.1915

{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-752.06469}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-713.22461}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-713.10979}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-713.10978}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7320.3134}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7318.9923}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7318.9018}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7318.9016}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}   585467
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}   584382
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}     1085

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}5{txt})       = {res}    30.09
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-7318.902                      {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}targ_resist  {txt}{c |}
{space 3}ally_cost {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4289086{col 26}{space 2} .1402167{col 37}{space 1}   -3.06{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}-.7037282{col 67}{space 3} -.154089
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2639074{col 26}{space 2} .1372942{col 37}{space 1}   -1.92{col 46}{space 3}0.055{col 54}{space 4}-.5329991{col 67}{space 3} .0051844
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4261721{col 26}{space 2}  .115663{col 37}{space 1}   -3.68{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6528674{col 67}{space 3}-.1994768
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2244302{col 26}{space 2} .1193412{col 37}{space 1}    1.88{col 46}{space 3}0.060{col 54}{space 4}-.0094743{col 67}{space 3} .4583346
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1367322{col 26}{space 2} .1471926{col 37}{space 1}    0.93{col 46}{space 3}0.353{col 54}{space 4}-.1517601{col 67}{space 3} .4252244
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.502083{col 26}{space 2} .2490547{col 37}{space 1}    6.03{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.013945{col 67}{space 3} 1.990221
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .276407{col 26}{space 2} .0425795{col 37}{space 1}    6.49{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1929527{col 67}{space 3} .3598612
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4102891{col 26}{space 2} .0358288{col 37}{space 1}   11.45{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3400659{col 67}{space 3} .4805123
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0617975{col 26}{space 2} .0322879{col 37}{space 1}   -1.91{col 46}{space 3}0.056{col 54}{space 4}-.1250807{col 67}{space 3} .0014856
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4035327{col 26}{space 2} .0098723{col 37}{space 1}  -40.88{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4228821{col 67}{space 3}-.3841834
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0554874{col 26}{space 2} .0360964{col 37}{space 1}   -1.54{col 46}{space 3}0.124{col 54}{space 4}-.1262351{col 67}{space 3} .0152602
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5203887{col 26}{space 2} .0534023{col 37}{space 1}   -9.74{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6250552{col 67}{space 3}-.4157222
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0435451{col 26}{space 2} .0018962{col 37}{space 1}  -22.96{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0472615{col 67}{space 3}-.0398287
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006627{col 26}{space 2}  .000037{col 37}{space 1}   17.92{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005902{col 67}{space 3} .0007352
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.71e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.86e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.59{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.08e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.35e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.032959{col 26}{space 2} .0979885{col 37}{space 1}   10.54{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8409047{col 67}{space 3} 1.225013
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     /athrho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.5600478{col 26}{space 2}   .07915{col 37}{space 1}   -7.08{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.715179{col 67}{space 3}-.4049167
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.5080129{col 26}{space 2} .0587232{col 54}{space 4}-.6139142{col 67}{space 3} -.384148
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}   46.58   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0000
{txt}{hline 78}

{com}. 
.         * Controlling for the Cold War
.         
.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win if cold_war==1, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-505.60285}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-498.40971}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-498.39154}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-498.39154}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -5345.081}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4548.5936}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4237.8613}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4233.9894}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4233.9856}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4233.9856}  
{res}
{txt}Comparison:    log likelihood = {res}-4732.3771

{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-505.99744}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-488.58884}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -488.5547}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -488.5547}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4722.5968}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4722.4758}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4722.4758}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}   406757
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}   406027
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}      730

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}4{txt})       = {res}    21.25
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-4722.476                      {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0003

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}targ_resist  {txt}{c |}
{space 3}ally_cost {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4607311{col 26}{space 2} .2127224{col 37}{space 1}   -2.17{col 46}{space 3}0.030{col 54}{space 4}-.8776593{col 67}{space 3}-.0438029
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3223843{col 26}{space 2}  .207444{col 37}{space 1}   -1.55{col 46}{space 3}0.120{col 54}{space 4} -.728967{col 67}{space 3} .0841984
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4667128{col 26}{space 2} .1629953{col 37}{space 1}   -2.86{col 46}{space 3}0.004{col 54}{space 4}-.7861777{col 67}{space 3}-.1472478
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1867059{col 26}{space 2} .1582206{col 37}{space 1}    1.18{col 46}{space 3}0.238{col 54}{space 4}-.1234009{col 67}{space 3} .4968127
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.283949{col 26}{space 2}  .274485{col 37}{space 1}    4.68{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .7459681{col 67}{space 3} 1.821929
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0197092{col 26}{space 2} .0559793{col 37}{space 1}    0.35{col 46}{space 3}0.725{col 54}{space 4}-.0900082{col 67}{space 3} .1294265
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5695562{col 26}{space 2} .0453102{col 37}{space 1}   12.57{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4807497{col 67}{space 3} .6583626
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0497295{col 26}{space 2} .0403611{col 37}{space 1}   -1.23{col 46}{space 3}0.218{col 54}{space 4}-.1288357{col 67}{space 3} .0293767
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4948265{col 26}{space 2} .0134407{col 37}{space 1}  -36.82{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5211697{col 67}{space 3}-.4684833
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1041129{col 26}{space 2} .0565625{col 37}{space 1}   -1.84{col 46}{space 3}0.066{col 54}{space 4}-.2149733{col 67}{space 3} .0067476
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9185772{col 26}{space 2} .0728843{col 37}{space 1}  -12.60{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.061428{col 67}{space 3}-.7757266
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0538046{col 26}{space 2} .0025819{col 37}{space 1}  -20.84{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0588649{col 67}{space 3}-.0487442
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0008181{col 26}{space 2} .0000533{col 37}{space 1}   15.36{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0007137{col 67}{space 3} .0009225
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.44e-06{col 26}{space 2} 2.81e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -12.24{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.99e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.89e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.105019{col 26}{space 2} .1385443{col 37}{space 1}   15.19{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.833477{col 67}{space 3} 2.376561
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     /athrho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.3753555{col 26}{space 2} .0832789{col 37}{space 1}   -4.51{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5385791{col 67}{space 3}-.2121319
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.3586672{col 26}{space 2} .0725657{col 54}{space 4}-.4919116{col 67}{space 3}-.2090061
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}   19.80   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0000
{txt}{hline 78}

{com}.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win if cold_war==0, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -238.0847}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-235.42862}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-235.42822}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-235.42822}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-2563.2448}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-2444.4613}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-2235.2663}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-2233.5971}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-2233.5951}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-2233.5951}  
{res}
{txt}Comparison:    log likelihood = {res}-2469.0233

{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-246.06725}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-220.03301}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-219.99876}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-219.99876}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-2519.0771}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-2463.9473}  (not concave)
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-2463.2725}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-2454.9309}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-2453.7814}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-2453.4265}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-2453.4163}  
Iteration 7:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-2453.4163}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}   178710
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}   178355
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}      355

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}4{txt})       = {res}    14.72
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-2453.416                      {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0053

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}targ_resist  {txt}{c |}
{space 3}ally_cost {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4611191{col 26}{space 2} .1666238{col 37}{space 1}   -2.77{col 46}{space 3}0.006{col 54}{space 4}-.7876958{col 67}{space 3}-.1345424
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4871653{col 26}{space 2} .1856758{col 37}{space 1}   -2.62{col 46}{space 3}0.009{col 54}{space 4}-.8510832{col 67}{space 3}-.1232475
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2319958{col 26}{space 2}   .17221{col 37}{space 1}   -1.35{col 46}{space 3}0.178{col 54}{space 4}-.5695212{col 67}{space 3} .1055296
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3667721{col 26}{space 2} .1722534{col 37}{space 1}    2.13{col 46}{space 3}0.033{col 54}{space 4} .0291617{col 67}{space 3} .7043825
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.110739{col 26}{space 2} .2533276{col 37}{space 1}    8.33{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.614226{col 67}{space 3} 2.607252
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .9342712{col 26}{space 2} .0798514{col 37}{space 1}   11.70{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .7777652{col 67}{space 3} 1.090777
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2241458{col 26}{space 2} .0614914{col 37}{space 1}    3.65{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1036248{col 67}{space 3} .3446668
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1091268{col 26}{space 2} .0558825{col 37}{space 1}   -1.95{col 46}{space 3}0.051{col 54}{space 4}-.2186545{col 67}{space 3} .0004009
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3068562{col 26}{space 2} .0162794{col 37}{space 1}  -18.85{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3387633{col 67}{space 3}-.2749492
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0083971{col 26}{space 2} .0484301{col 37}{space 1}   -0.17{col 46}{space 3}0.862{col 54}{space 4}-.1033183{col 67}{space 3}  .086524
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0854088{col 26}{space 2} .0918826{col 37}{space 1}   -0.93{col 46}{space 3}0.353{col 54}{space 4}-.2654953{col 67}{space 3} .0946777
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.029346{col 26}{space 2} .0028296{col 37}{space 1}  -10.37{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0348918{col 67}{space 3}-.0238001
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0004606{col 26}{space 2} .0000511{col 37}{space 1}    9.01{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0003604{col 67}{space 3} .0005608
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.84e-06{col 26}{space 2} 2.37e-07{col 37}{space 1}   -7.77{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.31e-06{col 67}{space 3}-1.38e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1487294{col 26}{space 2} .1570212{col 37}{space 1}   -0.95{col 46}{space 3}0.344{col 54}{space 4}-.4564854{col 67}{space 3} .1590266
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     /athrho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.9425441{col 26}{space 2} .1505163{col 37}{space 1}   -6.26{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.237551{col 67}{space 3}-.6475375
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2} -.736389{col 26}{space 2}  .068896{col 54}{space 4}-.8447556{col 67}{space 3}-.5700099
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}   31.21   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0000
{txt}{hline 78}

{com}.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win cold_war, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 cold_war)

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-747.54181}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-735.21255}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-735.20576}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-735.20576}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.5444}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -7009.929}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6609.0139}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.2382}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.2354}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.2354}  
{res}
{txt}Comparison:    log likelihood = {res}-7340.4411

{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-752.06469}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-710.11045}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-710.06126}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-710.06126}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7316.6749}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7315.2221}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7315.1174}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7315.1172}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}   585467
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}   584382
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}     1085

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}5{txt})       = {res}    35.90
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-7315.117                      {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}targ_resist  {txt}{c |}
{space 3}ally_cost {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4810206{col 26}{space 2} .1406207{col 37}{space 1}   -3.42{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} -.756632{col 67}{space 3}-.2054092
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2565399{col 26}{space 2} .1371501{col 37}{space 1}   -1.87{col 46}{space 3}0.061{col 54}{space 4}-.5253491{col 67}{space 3} .0122694
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4540733{col 26}{space 2} .1153516{col 37}{space 1}   -3.94{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6801583{col 67}{space 3}-.2279884
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2446614{col 26}{space 2} .1195929{col 37}{space 1}    2.05{col 46}{space 3}0.041{col 54}{space 4} .0102636{col 67}{space 3} .4790592
{txt}{space 4}cold_war {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .187208{col 26}{space 2} .0763853{col 37}{space 1}    2.45{col 46}{space 3}0.014{col 54}{space 4} .0374956{col 67}{space 3} .3369203
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.524669{col 26}{space 2} .2123228{col 37}{space 1}    7.18{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.108524{col 67}{space 3} 1.940814
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2707056{col 26}{space 2} .0428774{col 37}{space 1}    6.31{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1866674{col 67}{space 3} .3547438
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4140538{col 26}{space 2} .0359753{col 37}{space 1}   11.51{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3435436{col 67}{space 3} .4845641
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0611685{col 26}{space 2} .0322924{col 37}{space 1}   -1.89{col 46}{space 3}0.058{col 54}{space 4}-.1244604{col 67}{space 3} .0021234
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4055808{col 26}{space 2} .0100288{col 37}{space 1}  -40.44{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4252369{col 67}{space 3}-.3859247
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0467519{col 26}{space 2} .0363288{col 37}{space 1}   -1.29{col 46}{space 3}0.198{col 54}{space 4}-.1179551{col 67}{space 3} .0244512
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5149818{col 26}{space 2} .0531319{col 37}{space 1}   -9.69{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6191184{col 67}{space 3}-.4108453
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0434183{col 26}{space 2}  .001897{col 37}{space 1}  -22.89{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0471364{col 67}{space 3}-.0397002
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006609{col 26}{space 2}  .000037{col 37}{space 1}   17.87{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005884{col 67}{space 3} .0007334
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.71e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.86e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.56{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.07e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.34e-06
{txt}{space 4}cold_war {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0271249{col 26}{space 2} .0235493{col 37}{space 1}    1.15{col 46}{space 3}0.249{col 54}{space 4}-.0190309{col 67}{space 3} .0732807
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.023786{col 26}{space 2} .0981287{col 37}{space 1}   10.43{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8314572{col 67}{space 3} 1.216115
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     /athrho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.5676277{col 26}{space 2} .0769207{col 37}{space 1}   -7.38{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7183894{col 67}{space 3}-.4168659
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.5136149{col 26}{space 2}  .056629{col 54}{space 4}-.6159107{col 67}{space 3}-.3942869
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}   50.65   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0000
{txt}{hline 78}

{com}. 
.         * Controlling for the number of allies the target has
.         
.                 corr ally_cost ally_count
{txt}(obs=1085)

             {c |} ally~ost ally_~nt
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 18}
   ally_cost {c |}{res}   1.0000
  {txt}ally_count {c |}{res}   0.2072   1.0000

{txt}
{com}.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win ally_count, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3) 

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-747.54181}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-740.11692}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-740.10977}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-740.10977}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.5444}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6998.7095}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6609.7101}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9402}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9372}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9372}  
{res}
{txt}Comparison:    log likelihood = {res} -7346.047

{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-752.06469}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-713.12969}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-713.04649}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-713.04649}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7320.6268}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7318.9634}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7318.7657}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7318.7648}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7318.7648}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}   585467
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}   584382
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}     1085

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}5{txt})       = {res}    31.15
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-7318.765                      {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}targ_resist  {txt}{c |}
{space 3}ally_cost {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4523462{col 26}{space 2}  .142887{col 37}{space 1}   -3.17{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}-.7323995{col 67}{space 3}-.1722928
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2597902{col 26}{space 2} .1359203{col 37}{space 1}   -1.91{col 46}{space 3}0.056{col 54}{space 4} -.526189{col 67}{space 3} .0066086
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4534968{col 26}{space 2}  .115047{col 37}{space 1}   -3.94{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6789847{col 67}{space 3}-.2280088
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .248519{col 26}{space 2} .1212996{col 37}{space 1}    2.05{col 46}{space 3}0.040{col 54}{space 4} .0107762{col 67}{space 3} .4862618
{txt}{space 2}ally_count {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0031381{col 26}{space 2} .0029127{col 37}{space 1}    1.08{col 46}{space 3}0.281{col 54}{space 4}-.0025705{col 67}{space 3} .0088468
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.632554{col 26}{space 2} .2002368{col 37}{space 1}    8.15{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.240097{col 67}{space 3} 2.025011
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2767047{col 26}{space 2} .0425749{col 37}{space 1}    6.50{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1932595{col 67}{space 3} .3601499
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4103672{col 26}{space 2} .0358249{col 37}{space 1}   11.45{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3401517{col 67}{space 3} .4805827
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0617665{col 26}{space 2} .0322963{col 37}{space 1}   -1.91{col 46}{space 3}0.056{col 54}{space 4}-.1250661{col 67}{space 3}  .001533
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4034009{col 26}{space 2} .0098722{col 37}{space 1}  -40.86{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4227501{col 67}{space 3}-.3840517
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0571888{col 26}{space 2} .0361131{col 37}{space 1}   -1.58{col 46}{space 3}0.113{col 54}{space 4}-.1279692{col 67}{space 3} .0135916
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5090207{col 26}{space 2} .0529434{col 37}{space 1}   -9.61{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6127879{col 67}{space 3}-.4052535
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0434597{col 26}{space 2} .0018944{col 37}{space 1}  -22.94{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0471727{col 67}{space 3}-.0397468
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006612{col 26}{space 2} .0000369{col 37}{space 1}   17.89{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005888{col 67}{space 3} .0007336
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.71e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.86e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.57{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.07e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.34e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.023192{col 26}{space 2} .0979413{col 37}{space 1}   10.45{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .831231{col 67}{space 3} 1.215154
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     /athrho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.5896385{col 26}{space 2} .0768142{col 37}{space 1}   -7.68{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7401915{col 67}{space 3}-.4390855
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.5296356{col 26}{space 2} .0552667{col 54}{space 4}-.6292609{col 67}{space 3}-.4128862
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}   54.56   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0000
{txt}{hline 78}

{com}. 
.         * Removing observations where the target and challenger are members of a common defense pact
.         
.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win if target_challenger_def==0, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -543.5537}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-533.19463}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-533.15405}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-533.15405}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5967.7977}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5297.6566}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4986.6487}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:  -4983.83}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4983.8278}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4983.8278}  
{res}
{txt}Comparison:    log likelihood = {res}-5516.9818

{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-551.74516}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-507.15934}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-507.12522}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-507.12522}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5493.8205}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5491.5529}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5490.6844}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5490.6744}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5490.6744}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}   528388
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}   527592
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}      796

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}4{txt})       = {res}    34.74
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-5490.674                      {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}targ_resist  {txt}{c |}
{space 3}ally_cost {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4343599{col 26}{space 2} .1538754{col 37}{space 1}   -2.82{col 46}{space 3}0.005{col 54}{space 4}  -.73595{col 67}{space 3}-.1327697
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4737717{col 26}{space 2}  .161912{col 37}{space 1}   -2.93{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4}-.7911133{col 67}{space 3}  -.15643
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4937502{col 26}{space 2} .1395278{col 37}{space 1}   -3.54{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7672197{col 67}{space 3}-.2202807
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2353282{col 26}{space 2} .1333157{col 37}{space 1}    1.77{col 46}{space 3}0.078{col 54}{space 4}-.0259658{col 67}{space 3} .4966222
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.734923{col 26}{space 2} .2103283{col 37}{space 1}    8.25{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.322688{col 67}{space 3} 2.147159
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3250076{col 26}{space 2} .0487775{col 37}{space 1}    6.66{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2294054{col 67}{space 3} .4206098
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3842722{col 26}{space 2} .0419996{col 37}{space 1}    9.15{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3019545{col 67}{space 3}   .46659
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1135502{col 26}{space 2} .0365497{col 37}{space 1}   -3.11{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}-.1851862{col 67}{space 3}-.0419142
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4129659{col 26}{space 2} .0115238{col 37}{space 1}  -35.84{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4355521{col 67}{space 3}-.3903797
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1556677{col 26}{space 2} .0485981{col 37}{space 1}   -3.20{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}-.2509184{col 67}{space 3}-.0604171
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6069243{col 26}{space 2}  .061358{col 37}{space 1}   -9.89{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7271839{col 67}{space 3}-.4866648
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0434091{col 26}{space 2} .0021494{col 37}{space 1}  -20.20{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0476217{col 67}{space 3}-.0391964
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006567{col 26}{space 2} .0000415{col 37}{space 1}   15.81{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005753{col 67}{space 3} .0007381
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.63e-06{col 26}{space 2} 2.07e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -12.66{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.03e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.22e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.156425{col 26}{space 2} .1087398{col 37}{space 1}   10.63{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .9432987{col 67}{space 3} 1.369551
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     /athrho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}  -.63455{col 26}{space 2} .0841639{col 37}{space 1}   -7.54{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7995082{col 67}{space 3}-.4695918
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.5611773{col 26}{space 2}  .057659{col 54}{space 4}-.6637617{col 67}{space 3}-.4378694
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}   52.61   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0000
{txt}{hline 78}

{com}. 
.         * Using a threshold of 5 or higher on the polity2 variable
.         
.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem5 s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-747.54181}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-740.12647}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-740.11934}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-740.11934}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.5444}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6996.6715}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6607.6119}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6603.7898}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6603.7868}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6603.7868}  
{res}
{txt}Comparison:    log likelihood = {res}-7343.9061

{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-752.06469}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-713.42444}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-713.32978}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-713.32978}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7318.6358}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7317.1123}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7316.9505}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7316.9499}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}   585467
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}   584382
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}     1085

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}4{txt})       = {res}    29.75
{txt}Log likelihood = {res} -7316.95                      {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}targ_resist  {txt}{c |}
{space 3}ally_cost {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4026758{col 26}{space 2}  .136404{col 37}{space 1}   -2.95{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4}-.6700227{col 67}{space 3}-.1353288
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2695088{col 26}{space 2} .1359828{col 37}{space 1}   -1.98{col 46}{space 3}0.047{col 54}{space 4}-.5360302{col 67}{space 3}-.0029875
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.435914{col 26}{space 2} .1142415{col 37}{space 1}   -3.82{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6598233{col 67}{space 3}-.2120047
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2164237{col 26}{space 2} .1180225{col 37}{space 1}    1.83{col 46}{space 3}0.067{col 54}{space 4}-.0148961{col 67}{space 3} .4477435
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.631075{col 26}{space 2} .2011837{col 37}{space 1}    8.11{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.236762{col 67}{space 3} 2.025388
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2723211{col 26}{space 2} .0426052{col 37}{space 1}    6.39{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1888165{col 67}{space 3} .3558257
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4114616{col 26}{space 2} .0358425{col 37}{space 1}   11.48{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3412116{col 67}{space 3} .4817115
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0633404{col 26}{space 2} .0323139{col 37}{space 1}   -1.96{col 46}{space 3}0.050{col 54}{space 4}-.1266744{col 67}{space 3}-6.39e-06
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4039628{col 26}{space 2} .0098767{col 37}{space 1}  -40.90{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4233208{col 67}{space 3}-.3846049
{txt}{space 7}jdem5 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0922027{col 26}{space 2} .0350383{col 37}{space 1}   -2.63{col 46}{space 3}0.009{col 54}{space 4}-.1608766{col 67}{space 3}-.0235289
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5067319{col 26}{space 2} .0528093{col 37}{space 1}   -9.60{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6102362{col 67}{space 3}-.4032276
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0435512{col 26}{space 2} .0018956{col 37}{space 1}  -22.98{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0472664{col 67}{space 3} -.039836
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .000664{col 26}{space 2}  .000037{col 37}{space 1}   17.95{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005915{col 67}{space 3} .0007365
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.72e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.86e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.60{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.08e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.35e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.030746{col 26}{space 2} .0978509{col 37}{space 1}   10.53{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8389613{col 67}{space 3}  1.22253
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     /athrho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2} -.580392{col 26}{space 2} .0761352{col 37}{space 1}   -7.62{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7296142{col 67}{space 3}-.4311699
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.5229503{col 26}{space 2} .0553139{col 54}{space 4}-.6228293{col 67}{space 3}-.4062985
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}   53.91   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0000
{txt}{hline 78}

{com}. 
.         * Excluding the target's cost of damaging its alliance
.         
.                 corr ally_cost c_win
{txt}(obs=1085)

             {c |} ally~ost    c_win
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 18}
   ally_cost {c |}{res}   1.0000
       {txt}c_win {c |}{res}   0.4107   1.0000

{txt}
{com}.                 heckprob targ_resist pchaloff pchalneu c_win, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-747.54181}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-741.25762}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-741.25245}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-741.25245}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.5444}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6998.7095}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6609.7101}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9402}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9372}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6605.9372}  
{res}
{txt}Comparison:    log likelihood = {res}-7347.1897

{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-752.06469}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-717.92503}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-717.82083}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-717.82082}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7324.6164}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7323.6515}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7323.6126}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7323.6126}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}   585467
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}   584382
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}     1085

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}3{txt})       = {res}    20.30
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-7323.613                      {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0001

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}targ_resist  {txt}{c |}
{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2173381{col 26}{space 2} .1363069{col 37}{space 1}   -1.59{col 46}{space 3}0.111{col 54}{space 4}-.4844946{col 67}{space 3} .0498184
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.409564{col 26}{space 2} .1158643{col 37}{space 1}   -3.53{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6366538{col 67}{space 3}-.1824742
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0766375{col 26}{space 2} .1092141{col 37}{space 1}    0.70{col 46}{space 3}0.483{col 54}{space 4}-.1374181{col 67}{space 3} .2906932
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.285764{col 26}{space 2} .1815431{col 37}{space 1}    7.08{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .9299463{col 67}{space 3} 1.641582
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2766926{col 26}{space 2} .0425783{col 37}{space 1}    6.50{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1932406{col 67}{space 3} .3601446
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4103103{col 26}{space 2} .0358284{col 37}{space 1}   11.45{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .340088{col 67}{space 3} .4805326
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.061827{col 26}{space 2} .0322894{col 37}{space 1}   -1.91{col 46}{space 3}0.056{col 54}{space 4} -.125113{col 67}{space 3} .0014591
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4032578{col 26}{space 2} .0098788{col 37}{space 1}  -40.82{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4226199{col 67}{space 3}-.3838958
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0562645{col 26}{space 2} .0361575{col 37}{space 1}   -1.56{col 46}{space 3}0.120{col 54}{space 4}-.1271318{col 67}{space 3} .0146029
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5163006{col 26}{space 2} .0528749{col 37}{space 1}   -9.76{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6199334{col 67}{space 3}-.4126678
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0435723{col 26}{space 2} .0018968{col 37}{space 1}  -22.97{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0472899{col 67}{space 3}-.0398547
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006631{col 26}{space 2}  .000037{col 37}{space 1}   17.91{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005905{col 67}{space 3} .0007357
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.72e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.86e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.58{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.08e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.35e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.028409{col 26}{space 2} .0978581{col 37}{space 1}   10.51{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8366107{col 67}{space 3} 1.220207
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     /athrho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.5341603{col 26}{space 2} .0753197{col 37}{space 1}   -7.09{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6817842{col 67}{space 3}-.3865364
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.4885548{col 26}{space 2}  .057342{col 54}{space 4}-.5926781{col 67}{space 3}-.3683704
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}   47.15   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0000
{txt}{hline 78}

{com}. 
{txt}end of do-file

{com}. log close
      {txt}name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}E:\Jesse's Documents\Alliance Restraint\IO Data\FangJohnson&LeedsIOrep\FangJohnson&LeedsIOrep.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}closed on:  {res}21 Jun 2013, 10:47:47
{txt}{.-}
{smcl}
{txt}{sf}{ul off}