-------------
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  E:\Jesse's Documents\Alliance Restraint\IO Data\FangJohnson&LeedsIOrep\FangJohnson&LeedsIOrep.smcl
  log type:  smcl
 opened on:  20 Jun 2013, 18:08:57

. do "E:\Jesse's Documents\Alliance Restraint\IO Data\FangJohnson&LeedsIOrep\FangJohnson&LeedsIOrep.do"

. * Replication File for "To Concede or To Resist? The Restraining Effect of Military Alliances"
. * 06/20/13
.
. use "E:\Jesse's Documents\Alliance Restraint\IO Data\FangJohnson&LeedsIOrep\FangJohnson&LeedsIOrep.dta", clear

.
. set more off

.
. ******************************
. *** Descriptive Statistics ***
. ******************************
.
. sum year

    Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
        year |    585467    1975.103    24.07121       1816       2000

. tab dispute

      codes |
whether the |
 challenger |
initiated a |
    dispute |
against the |
  target in |
  the given |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |    584,382       99.81       99.81
          1 |      1,085        0.19      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |    585,467      100.00

. tab targ_resist

      codes |
whether the |
     target |
resisted in |
  the given |
       year |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |        592       54.56       54.56
          1 |        493       45.44      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |      1,085      100.00

. sum ally_cost, d

        target's cost of damaging its alliance in the
             given year: cap_ally/(cap_ally+cap
-------------------------------------------------------------
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%     .0136496       .0009304
 5%     .1469741       .0009304
10%     .2713885       .0009821       Obs                1085
25%     .6219495       .0009821       Sum of Wgt.        1085

50%     .9046118                      Mean            .768011
                        Largest       Std. Dev.      .2752285
75%     .9732276       .9997436
90%     .9929399       .9997739       Variance       .0757507
95%     .9965795        .999862       Skewness      -1.276879
99%     .9990184        .999887       Kurtosis       3.501036

.
. ***************
. *** Table 2 ***
. ***************
.
. heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

Fitting probit model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -747.54181
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -740.12647
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -740.11934
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -740.11934

Fitting selection model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7909.5444
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6998.7095
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6609.7101
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6605.9402
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6605.9372
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6605.9372

Comparison:    log likelihood = -7346.0566

Fitting starting values:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -752.06469
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -713.67515
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -713.58028
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -713.58027

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7321.0049
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -7319.4996
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7319.3404
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -7319.3399

Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      =    585467
                                                Censored obs       =    584382
                                                Uncensored obs     =      1085

                                                Wald chi2(4)       =     29.72
Log likelihood =  -7319.34                      Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.    Std. Err.       z    P>|z|      [95% Con f. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
targ_resist  |
   ally_cost |   -.4043512    .1365033     -2.96    0.003     -.6718928    -.1368095
    pchaloff |   -.2701406    .1360637     -1.99    0.047     -.5368206    -.0034606
    pchalneu |   -.4349749    .1143149     -3.81    0.000      -.659028    -.2109219
       c_win |      .21674    .1180775      1.84    0.066     -.0146877     .4481677
       _cons |    1.629253    .2018688      8.07    0.000      1.233597     2.024909
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
dispute      |
    pchaloff |      .27669    .0425762      6.50    0.000      .1932421     .3601378
    pchalneu |    .4103379     .035826     11.45    0.000      .3401203     .4805555
       c_win |   -.0617515    .0322936     -1.91    0.056     -.1250458     .0015428
 ln_distance |   -.4034405    .0098722    -40.87    0.000     -.4227897    -.3840913
        jdem |   -.0557893    .0360649     -1.55    0.122     -.1264752     .0148966
    s_un_glo |   -.5125893    .0528229     -9.70    0.000     -.6161202    -.4090583
    peaceyrs |   -.0434911    .0018946    -22.95    0.000     -.0472045    -.0397777
   peaceyrs2 |    .0006618     .000037     17.91    0.000      .0005893     .0007342
   peaceyrs3 |   -2.71e-06    1.86e-07    -14.58    0.000     -3.08e-06    -2.35e-06
       _cons |    1.026173    .0978534     10.49    0.000       .834384     1.217962
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      /athrho |   -.578801    .0762609     -7.59    0.000     -.7282697    -.4293324
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          rho |  -.5217935    .0554975                   -.6220056    -.4047632
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2(1) =    53.43   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.
. *********************************
. *** Table 2 Robustness Checks ***
. *********************************
.
.         * Coding ally resistance as target resistance
.
.                 heckprob ally_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

Fitting probit model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -748.24408
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -740.85325
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -740.84554
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -740.84554

Fitting selection model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7909.5444
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6998.7095
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6609.7101
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6605.9402
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6605.9372
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6605.9372

Comparison:    log likelihood = -7346.7828

Fitting starting values:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -752.06469
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =  -715.1547
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -715.04752
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -715.04751

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7322.3214
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -7320.9363
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7320.8324
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -7320.8322

Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      =    585467
                                                Censored obs       =    584382
                                                Uncensored obs     =      1085

                                                Wald chi2(4)       =     29.28
Log likelihood = -7320.832                      Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.    Std. Err.       z    P>|z|      [95% Con f. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
ally_resist  |
   ally_cost |     -.38146    .1370278     -2.78    0.005     -.6500295    -.1128904
    pchaloff |   -.2718701      .13651     -1.99    0.046     -.5394249    -.0043154
    pchalneu |   -.4399004    .1147178     -3.83    0.000     -.6647431    -.2150576
       c_win |    .1985481    .1182838      1.68    0.093     -.0332839     .4303802
       _cons |    1.610434    .2033363      7.92    0.000      1.211902     2.008966
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
dispute      |
    pchaloff |    .2765577    .0425758      6.50    0.000      .1931107     .3600046
    pchalneu |    .4103896    .0358254     11.46    0.000      .3401731      .480606
       c_win |   -.0618465     .032294     -1.92    0.055     -.1251416     .0014486
 ln_distance |   -.4035297    .0098716    -40.88    0.000     -.4228777    -.3841817
        jdem |   -.0562615    .0360925     -1.56    0.119     -.1270014     .0144784
    s_un_glo |   -.5131631     .052838     -9.71    0.000     -.6167237    -.4096026
    peaceyrs |   -.0434863    .0018954    -22.94    0.000     -.0472011    -.0397714
   peaceyrs2 |     .000662     .000037     17.91    0.000      .0005896     .0007345
   peaceyrs3 |   -2.71e-06    1.86e-07    -14.58    0.000     -3.08e-06    -2.35e-06
       _cons |    1.027168    .0978459     10.50    0.000      .8353931     1.218942
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      /athrho |  -.5693684    .0761469     -7.48    0.000     -.7186136    -.4201232
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          rho |  -.5148953    .0559591                   -.6160498    -.3970342
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2(1) =    51.90   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.
.         * Coding target resistance with different hostility levels
.
.                 heckprob targ_resist3 ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

Fitting probit model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -742.87698
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =  -734.4515
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -734.44204
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -734.44204

Fitting selection model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7909.5444
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6998.7095
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6609.7101
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6605.9402
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6605.9372
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6605.9372

Comparison:    log likelihood = -7340.3793

Fitting starting values:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -752.06469
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -707.61708
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -707.53149
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -707.53148

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7315.1324
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -7313.5252
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  -7313.214
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -7313.2127
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -7313.2127

Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      =    585467
                                                Censored obs       =    584382
                                                Uncensored obs     =      1085

                                                Wald chi2(4)       =     31.43
Log likelihood = -7313.213                      Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.    Std. Err.       z    P>|z|      [95% Con f. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
targ_resist3 |
   ally_cost |   -.4336731    .1362569     -3.18    0.001     -.7007316    -.1666146
    pchaloff |   -.2963993    .1365527     -2.17    0.030     -.5640376     -.028761
    pchalneu |   -.4303836    .1145581     -3.76    0.000     -.6549134    -.2058538
       c_win |    .2762879    .1183871      2.33    0.020      .0442535     .5083223
       _cons |    1.593533    .2026296      7.86    0.000      1.196386      1.99068
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
dispute      |
    pchaloff |     .276784     .042572      6.50    0.000      .1933443     .3602236
    pchalneu |    .4104086    .0358237     11.46    0.000      .3401954     .4806217
       c_win |    -.061541    .0322973     -1.91    0.057     -.1248424     .0017605
 ln_distance |   -.4037636    .0098692    -40.91    0.000     -.4231068    -.3844204
        jdem |    -.053966    .0359877     -1.50    0.134     -.1245006     .0165685
    s_un_glo |   -.5102525    .0528352     -9.66    0.000     -.6138076    -.4066974
    peaceyrs |   -.0434036    .0018945    -22.91    0.000     -.0471168    -.0396904
   peaceyrs2 |    .0006605    .0000369     17.88    0.000      .0005881     .0007328
   peaceyrs3 |   -2.70e-06    1.86e-07    -14.56    0.000     -3.07e-06    -2.34e-06
       _cons |    1.025701    .0978756     10.48    0.000      .8338687     1.217534
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      /athrho |  -.5856812    .0765454     -7.65    0.000     -.7357074     -.435655
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          rho |  -.5267824    .0553041                   -.6265447    -.4100364
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2(1) =    54.33   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                 heckprob targ_resist4 ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

Fitting probit model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -666.55629
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -656.28199
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  -656.2448
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -656.2448

Fitting selection model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7909.5444
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6998.7095
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6609.7101
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6605.9402
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6605.9372
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6605.9372

Comparison:    log likelihood =  -7262.182

Fitting starting values:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -752.06469
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -627.51899
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -627.11149
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -627.11142

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7241.3467  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -7235.5939
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7232.8152
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -7232.7535
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -7232.7535

Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      =    585467
                                                Censored obs       =    584382
                                                Uncensored obs     =      1085

                                                Wald chi2(4)       =     37.06
Log likelihood = -7232.753                      Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.    Std. Err.       z    P>|z|      [95% Con f. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
targ_resist4 |
   ally_cost |   -.4838196    .1375969     -3.52    0.000     -.7535045    -.2141346
    pchaloff |   -.0471437    .1394863     -0.34    0.735     -.3205319     .2262444
    pchalneu |    -.625227    .1258406     -4.97    0.000     -.8718701     -.378584
       c_win |    .2974121    .1220725      2.44    0.015      .0581544     .5366698
       _cons |     1.40446    .2078129      6.76    0.000      .9971545     1.811766
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
dispute      |
    pchaloff |    .2761221    .0425625      6.49    0.000      .1927012     .3595431
    pchalneu |    .4108364    .0358221     11.47    0.000      .3406262     .4810465
       c_win |   -.0617723    .0322992     -1.91    0.056     -.1250775      .001533
 ln_distance |   -.4044243    .0098583    -41.02    0.000     -.4237463    -.3851023
        jdem |   -.0536289    .0359614     -1.49    0.136     -.1241119     .0168541
    s_un_glo |   -.5115471    .0527792     -9.69    0.000     -.6149924    -.4081019
    peaceyrs |    -.043177    .0018973    -22.76    0.000     -.0468956    -.0394584
   peaceyrs2 |    .0006568     .000037     17.74    0.000      .0005843     .0007294
   peaceyrs3 |   -2.69e-06    1.86e-07    -14.43    0.000     -3.06e-06    -2.33e-06
       _cons |     1.02988    .0977732     10.53    0.000      .8382477     1.221512
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      /athrho |  -.6334497    .0785659     -8.06    0.000     -.7874359    -.4794635
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          rho |   -.560423    .0538904                    -.656954    -.4458138
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2(1) =    58.86   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                 heckprob targ_resist5 ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

Fitting probit model:

note: pchalneu != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      pchalneu dropped and 131 obs not used

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -85.31428
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -77.391089
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  -76.20497
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -76.203771
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -76.203771

Fitting selection model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7909.5444
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6998.7095
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6609.7101
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6605.9402
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6605.9372
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6605.9372

Comparison:    log likelihood =  -6682.141

Fitting starting values:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -752.06469
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -83.564377
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -76.566495
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -75.719205
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -75.588758
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -75.563127
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -75.558096
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -75.557261
Iteration 8:   log likelihood = -75.557138
Iteration 9:   log likelihood = -75.557112
Iteration 10:  log likelihood = -75.557107

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -6681.6692
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6681.4983
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6681.4976

Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      =    585467
                                                Censored obs       =    584382
                                                Uncensored obs     =      1085

                                                Wald chi2(4)       =     19.47
Log likelihood = -6681.498                      Prob > chi2        =    0.0006

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.    Std. Err.       z    P>|z|      [95% Con f. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
targ_resist5 |
   ally_cost |   -1.021571     .360206     -2.84    0.005     -1.727562    -.3155802
    pchaloff |     .762649    .2833344      2.69    0.007      .2073236     1.317974
    pchalneu |   -4.581809     172.298     -0.03    0.979     -342.2797     333.1161
       c_win |    .6087023    .3678264      1.65    0.098     -.1122243     1.329629
       _cons |   -1.046631    .7269758     -1.44    0.150     -2.471477     .3782155
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
dispute      |
    pchaloff |    .2766723    .0425801      6.50    0.000      .1932169     .3601277
    pchalneu |    .4106413    .0358258     11.46    0.000       .340424     .4808587
       c_win |   -.0619886    .0322913     -1.92    0.055     -.1252783     .0013012
 ln_distance |   -.4043265    .0098823    -40.91    0.000     -.4236955    -.3849575
        jdem |   -.0450651    .0361223     -1.25    0.212     -.1158636     .0257334
    s_un_glo |   -.5217609    .0534054     -9.77    0.000     -.6264335    -.4170883
    peaceyrs |   -.0433944    .0019131    -22.68    0.000     -.0471441    -.0396447
   peaceyrs2 |    .0006619    .0000373     17.73    0.000      .0005888     .0007351
   peaceyrs3 |   -2.72e-06    1.88e-07    -14.46    0.000     -3.09e-06    -2.35e-06
       _cons |    1.036772    .0979857     10.58    0.000      .8447232      1.22882
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      /athrho |  -.2467865     .212861     -1.16    0.246     -.6639863     .1704134
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          rho |  -.2418955    .2004058                   -.5810102     .1687827
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2(1) =     1.29   Prob > chi2 = 0.2567
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.
.         * Using only observations where the target had one bilateral alliance
.
.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win if one_bilateral==1, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

Fitting probit model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -182.96055
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -173.59263
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -173.56397
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -173.56397

Fitting selection model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -1816.0581
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -1555.4266
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -1452.2314
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -1450.8207
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -1450.8195
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -1450.8195

Comparison:    log likelihood = -1624.3834

Fitting starting values:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -182.99086
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -161.78907
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -161.75615
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -161.75614

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -1617.5851
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -1613.2552
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -1612.4735
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -1612.4553
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -1612.4553

Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      =     94500
                                                Censored obs       =     94236
                                                Uncensored obs     =       264

                                                Wald chi2(4)       =     38.57
Log likelihood = -1612.455                      Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.    Std. Err.       z    P>|z|      [95% Con f. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
targ_resist  |
   ally_cost |   -.8502281    .2087625     -4.07    0.000     -1.259395     -.441061
    pchaloff |    -.735403    .2268931     -3.24    0.001     -1.180105    -.2907006
    pchalneu |   -.6173057    .1929971     -3.20    0.001     -.9955731    -.2390383
       c_win |    .6449239    .2335911      2.76    0.006      .1870937     1.102754
       _cons |    2.059799    .2750493      7.49    0.000      1.520712     2.598886
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
dispute      |
    pchaloff |    .5952242    .0803829      7.40    0.000      .4376766     .7527718
    pchalneu |    .6100031    .0676933      9.01    0.000      .4773267     .7426794
       c_win |   -.2566491    .0717877     -3.58    0.000     -.3973503    -.1159479
 ln_distance |   -.4180277    .0211977    -19.72    0.000     -.4595745    -.3764809
        jdem |   -.2356908    .0895987     -2.63    0.009     -.4113011    -.0600805
    s_un_glo |   -.4233331    .1630814     -2.60    0.009     -.7429667    -.1036995
    peaceyrs |   -.0540719     .004943    -10.94    0.000     -.0637601    -.0443837
   peaceyrs2 |    .0009155    .0001124      8.15    0.000      .0006953     .0011358
   peaceyrs3 |   -4.14e-06    6.58e-07     -6.29    0.000     -5.43e-06    -2.85e-06
       _cons |    1.307252    .2309565      5.66    0.000      .8545859     1.759919
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      /athrho |  -.7694311    .1503518     -5.12    0.000     -1.064115     -.474747
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          rho |  -.6465985    .0874913                   -.7872338    -.4420268
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2(1) =    23.86   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.
.         * Using only observations where the target's allies were all members of the same multilateral alliance
.
.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win if one_sub_multilateral==1, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

Fitting probit model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -544.65607
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -540.23489
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -540.23001
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -540.23001

Fitting selection model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -5802.3681
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =  -5086.307
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -4679.2551
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -4675.5697
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -4675.5664
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -4675.5664

Comparison:    log likelihood = -5215.7964

Fitting starting values:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -547.58627
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -513.69597
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -513.66159
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -513.66159

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -5191.2818
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5189.3714
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5189.1381
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5189.1374
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5189.1374

Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      =    450305
                                                Censored obs       =    449515
                                                Uncensored obs     =       790

                                                Wald chi2(4)       =     19.85
Log likelihood = -5189.137                      Prob > chi2        =    0.0005

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.    Std. Err.       z    P>|z|      [95% Con f. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
targ_resist  |
   ally_cost |   -.4912753    .1524591     -3.22    0.001     -.7900897    -.1924608
    pchaloff |   -.3504656    .1525593     -2.30    0.022     -.6494763    -.0514549
    pchalneu |   -.2900817    .1367566     -2.12    0.034     -.5581198    -.0220437
       c_win |    .2038701    .1394821      1.46    0.144     -.0695098     .4772501
       _cons |    1.733984    .2113104      8.21    0.000      1.319823     2.148144
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
dispute      |
    pchaloff |    .3342601    .0491207      6.80    0.000      .2379853     .4305349
    pchalneu |    .3909871    .0435013      8.99    0.000      .3057262     .4762481
       c_win |    .0441492    .0396306      1.11    0.265     -.0335254     .1218238
 ln_distance |   -.4206009     .011454    -36.72    0.000     -.4430504    -.3981514
        jdem |   -.0718478    .0410382     -1.75    0.080     -.1522812     .0085856
    s_un_glo |    .0105141    .0701974      0.15    0.881     -.1270703     .1480986
    peaceyrs |   -.0402809    .0022328    -18.04    0.000      -.044657    -.0359047
   peaceyrs2 |    .0006061     .000043     14.10    0.000      .0005219     .0006904
   peaceyrs3 |   -2.47e-06    2.14e-07    -11.57    0.000     -2.89e-06    -2.05e-06
       _cons |    .6517129     .118591      5.50    0.000      .4192789     .8841469
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      /athrho |  -.6136848    .0809684     -7.58    0.000       -.77238    -.4549895
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          rho |  -.5467157    .0567671                   -.6483112    -.4259917
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2(1) =    53.32   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.
.         * Coding the target's costs of damaging its alliance only using the target's strongest alliance
.
.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost_strongest pchaloff pchalneu c_win, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

Fitting probit model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -747.54181
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -740.31105
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -740.30426
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -740.30426

Fitting selection model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7909.5444
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6998.7095
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6609.7101
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6605.9402
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6605.9372
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6605.9372

Comparison:    log likelihood = -7346.2415

Fitting starting values:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -752.06469
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -713.77729
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -713.68758
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -713.68758

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7321.1356
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -7319.5974
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  -7319.438
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -7319.4376

Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      =    585467
                                                Censored obs       =    584382
                                                Uncensored obs     =      1085

                                                Wald chi2(4)       =     29.60
Log likelihood = -7319.438                      Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.    Std. Err.       z    P>|z|      [95% Con f. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
targ_resist  |
ally_cost_~t |   -.3891834    .1327334     -2.93    0.003      -.649336    -.1290309
    pchaloff |    -.267152    .1358024     -1.97    0.049     -.5333197    -.0009842
    pchalneu |   -.4410734    .1143276     -3.86    0.000     -.6651514    -.2169954
       c_win |    .2247399    .1193301      1.88    0.060     -.0091428     .4586227
       _cons |    1.614238     .199749      8.08    0.000      1.222738     2.005739
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
dispute      |
    pchaloff |     .276726    .0425757      6.50    0.000      .1932791      .360173
    pchalneu |    .4103479    .0358254     11.45    0.000      .3401314     .4805644
       c_win |   -.0617452    .0322946     -1.91    0.056     -.1250415      .001551
 ln_distance |   -.4034307    .0098722    -40.87    0.000     -.4227799    -.3840815
        jdem |   -.0559419    .0360634     -1.55    0.121      -.126625     .0147411
    s_un_glo |    -.511291    .0528451     -9.68    0.000     -.6148655    -.4077164
    peaceyrs |   -.0434814    .0018946    -22.95    0.000     -.0471948    -.0397681
   peaceyrs2 |    .0006616     .000037     17.90    0.000      .0005892     .0007341
   peaceyrs3 |   -2.71e-06    1.86e-07    -14.58    0.000     -3.07e-06    -2.35e-06
       _cons |    1.025079    .0978769     10.47    0.000      .8332434     1.216914
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      /athrho |  -.5814107    .0764694     -7.60    0.000     -.7312879    -.4315335
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          rho |    -.52369    .0554976                   -.6238527    -.4066021
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2(1) =    53.61   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.
.         * Controlling for the raw capabilities of the target
.
.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win cap_targ, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

Fitting probit model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -747.54181
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -736.35215
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -736.33449
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -736.33449

Fitting selection model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7909.5444
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6998.7095
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6609.7101
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6605.9402
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6605.9372
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6605.9372

Comparison:    log likelihood = -7342.2717

Fitting starting values:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -752.06469
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -713.02365
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -712.90534
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -712.90534

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -7320.101
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -7318.7775
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7318.6965
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -7318.6963

Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      =    585467
                                                Censored obs       =    584382
                                                Uncensored obs     =      1085

                                                Wald chi2(5)       =     30.40
Log likelihood = -7318.696                      Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.    Std. Err.       z    P>|z|      [95% Con f. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
targ_resist  |
   ally_cost |   -.5048934    .1640628     -3.08    0.002     -.8264506    -.1833362
    pchaloff |   -.2650731    .1372953     -1.93    0.054     -.5341668     .0040207
    pchalneu |   -.4104348    .1175046     -3.49    0.000     -.6407395      -.18013
       c_win |    .1648745    .1275734      1.29    0.196     -.0851647     .4149137
    cap_targ |   -.8895335    .7923024     -1.12    0.262     -2.442418     .6633507
       _cons |    1.723941    .2191548      7.87    0.000      1.294405     2.153476
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
dispute      |
    pchaloff |    .2766705    .0425792      6.50    0.000      .1932169     .3601241
    pchalneu |    .4102355    .0358285     11.45    0.000       .340013      .480458
       c_win |   -.0617589    .0322898     -1.91    0.056     -.1250457     .0015278
 ln_distance |    -.403368    .0098751    -40.85    0.000     -.4227229    -.3840132
        jdem |   -.0552233    .0360875     -1.53    0.126     -.1259536     .0155069
    s_un_glo |   -.5168379     .052952     -9.76    0.000     -.6206219    -.4130539
    peaceyrs |   -.0435589    .0018963    -22.97    0.000     -.0472757    -.0398422
   peaceyrs2 |    .0006629     .000037     17.92    0.000      .0005904     .0007354
   peaceyrs3 |   -2.72e-06    1.86e-07    -14.59    0.000     -3.08e-06    -2.35e-06
       _cons |    1.029245    .0978503     10.52    0.000      .8374622     1.221028
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      /athrho |   -.558656    .0785797     -7.11    0.000     -.7126694    -.4046426
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          rho |  -.5069796    .0583825                    -.612348    -.3839143
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2(1) =    47.15   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.
.         * Including all allies capabilities in the challenger's probability of winning in war
.
.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win_allies, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win_allies ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

Fitting probit model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -747.54181
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -741.17801
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  -741.1692
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -741.1692

Fitting selection model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7909.5444
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6630.5787
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  -6113.418
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6085.2806
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6085.0318
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6085.0318

Comparison:    log likelihood =  -6826.201

Fitting starting values:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -752.06469
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -713.02742
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -712.93884
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -712.93884

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -6799.2091
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6797.8886
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6797.8154
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6797.8153

Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      =    585467
                                                Censored obs       =    584382
                                                Uncensored obs     =      1085

                                                Wald chi2(4)       =     53.16
Log likelihood = -6797.815                      Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.    Std. Err.       z    P>|z|      [95% Con f. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
targ_resist  |
   ally_cost |   -.2705601    .1283294     -2.11    0.035     -.5220812    -.0190391
    pchaloff |   -.4337334    .1441085     -3.01    0.003     -.7161809    -.1512858
    pchalneu |   -.5009304      .11618     -4.31    0.000     -.7286389    -.2732218
c_win_allies |    .9113476    .1715819      5.31    0.000      .5750533     1.247642
       _cons |    1.361135    .1874774      7.26    0.000      .9936863     1.728584
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
dispute      |
    pchaloff |    .5150207    .0445156     11.57    0.000      .4277717     .6022697
    pchalneu |    .5691271     .038141     14.92    0.000      .4943721     .6438821
c_win_allies |   -1.316987     .049509    -26.60    0.000     -1.414023    -1.219951
 ln_distance |   -.4512899    .0107375    -42.03    0.000      -.472335    -.4302448
        jdem |   -.1271576    .0380032     -3.35    0.001     -.2016425    -.0526728
    s_un_glo |   -.5821918    .0556362    -10.46    0.000     -.6912367    -.4731469
    peaceyrs |   -.0441886    .0019941    -22.16    0.000     -.0480969    -.0402803
   peaceyrs2 |    .0006692    .0000388     17.25    0.000      .0005932     .0007452
   peaceyrs3 |   -2.73e-06    1.95e-07    -14.04    0.000     -3.11e-06    -2.35e-06
       _cons |    1.795021    .1057636     16.97    0.000      1.587729     2.002314
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      /athrho |  -.5614726    .0723581     -7.76    0.000     -.7032918    -.4196533
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          rho |  -.5090692    .0536064                   -.6064531    -.3966383
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2(1) =    56.77   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.
.         * Using a two-step probit estimator
.
.                 probit dispute pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7909.5444
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6998.7095
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6609.7101
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6605.9402
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6605.9372
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6605.9372

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =     585467
                                                  LR chi2(9)      =    2607.21
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -6605.9372                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1648

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      dispute |      Coef.    Std. Err.       z    P>|z|      [95% Con f. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    pchaloff |    .2768089     .042582      6.50    0.000      .1933497     .3602681
    pchalneu |    .4104974    .0358269     11.46    0.000      .3402781     .4807168
       c_win |   -.0619373    .0322897     -1.92    0.055     -.1252239     .0013494
 ln_distance |   -.4041791    .0098846    -40.89    0.000     -.4235526    -.3848057
        jdem |   -.0449467    .0361272     -1.24    0.213     -.1157547     .0258613
    s_un_glo |   -.5225369    .0534081     -9.78    0.000     -.6272147     -.417859
    peaceyrs |   -.0434544    .0019124    -22.72    0.000     -.0472027    -.0397061
   peaceyrs2 |    .0006629    .0000373     17.76    0.000      .0005898     .0007361
   peaceyrs3 |   -2.72e-06    1.88e-07    -14.48    0.000     -3.09e-06    -2.35e-06
       _cons |    1.036673    .0979949     10.58    0.000       .844606     1.228739
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

.                 predict probitxb, xb

.                 gen pdfprobit = normalden(probitxb)

.                 gen cdfprobit = normal(probitxb)

.                 gen imr = pdfprobit/cdfprobit

.                 probit targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win imr

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -747.54181
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -713.68934
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -713.58027
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -713.58027

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =       1085
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      67.92
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -713.58027                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0454

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  targ_resist |      Coef.    Std. Err.       z    P>|z|      [95% Con f. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   ally_cost |   -.4641025    .1597863     -2.90    0.004     -.7772778    -.1509271
    pchaloff |   -.3098587    .1553724     -1.99    0.046     -.6143831    -.0053344
    pchalneu |   -.4977465    .1321321     -3.77    0.000     -.7567207    -.2387723
       c_win |    .2475821    .1345297      1.84    0.066     -.0160912     .5112555
         imr |   -.5976941    .0837976     -7.13    0.000     -.7619344    -.4334538
       _cons |    1.866979    .2880475      6.48    0.000      1.302416     2.431542
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

.                 drop probitxb pdfprobit cdfprobit imr

.
.         * Using a probit estimator with selection variables
.
.                 probit targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -747.54181
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -709.96172
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -709.85416
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -709.85414

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =       1085
                                                  LR chi2(10)     =      75.38
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -709.85414                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0504

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  targ_resist |      Coef.    Std. Err.       z    P>|z|      [95% Con f. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   ally_cost |   -.4199477    .1653945     -2.54    0.011      -.744115    -.0957805
    pchaloff |   -.1552174    .1559618     -1.00    0.320      -.460897     .1504622
    pchalneu |   -.3035319    .1327492     -2.29    0.022     -.5637156    -.0433483
       c_win |    .1961562    .1363921      1.44    0.150     -.0711675     .4634798
 ln_distance |   -.1723555    .0410665     -4.20    0.000     -.2528443    -.0918666
        jdem |   -.3041353    .1367379     -2.22    0.026     -.5721367    -.0361338
    s_un_glo |    .0166174    .1930402      0.09    0.931     -.3617344     .3949693
    peaceyrs |    -.024288    .0064236     -3.78    0.000     -.0368781    -.0116978
   peaceyrs2 |    .0003238    .0001269      2.55    0.011      .0000752     .0005725
   peaceyrs3 |   -1.20e-06    6.26e-07     -1.92    0.055     -2.43e-06     2.45e-08
       _cons |    1.576637    .4198694      3.76    0.000      .7537082     2.399566
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

.
.         * Including each identifying variable in the outcome equation in turn
.
.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

Fitting probit model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -747.54181
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -725.18941
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -725.15699
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -725.15699

Fitting selection model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7909.5444
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6998.7095
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6609.7101
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6605.9402
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6605.9372
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6605.9372

Comparison:    log likelihood = -7331.0942

Fitting starting values:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -752.06469
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -713.60098
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -713.50403
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -713.50403

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7321.6412
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -7320.0583
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7319.2505
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -7319.2433
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -7319.2433

Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      =    585467
                                                Censored obs       =    584382
                                                Uncensored obs     =      1085

                                                Wald chi2(5)       =     31.14
Log likelihood = -7319.243                      Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.    Std. Err.       z    P>|z|      [95% Con f. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
targ_resist  |
   ally_cost |   -.3843732    .1412132     -2.72    0.006     -.6611461    -.1076003
    pchaloff |   -.2725008    .1336429     -2.04    0.041      -.534436    -.0105656
    pchalneu |   -.4489246    .1164053     -3.86    0.000     -.6770749    -.2207744
       c_win |    .2131647    .1162748      1.83    0.067     -.0147297     .4410591
 ln_distance |    .0206446    .0461519      0.45    0.655     -.0698114     .1111006
       _cons |    1.557805     .255148      6.11    0.000      1.057724     2.057886
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
dispute      |
    pchaloff |    .2765229    .0425736      6.50    0.000      .1930803     .3599656
    pchalneu |    .4105141    .0358257     11.46    0.000       .340297     .4807312
       c_win |   -.0618194    .0322972     -1.91    0.056     -.1251208     .0014819
 ln_distance |   -.4036407    .0098772    -40.87    0.000     -.4229996    -.3842818
        jdem |     -.05661    .0360669     -1.57    0.117     -.1272999     .0140798
    s_un_glo |   -.5100363    .0530924     -9.61    0.000     -.6140955    -.4059771
    peaceyrs |   -.0433911    .0019081    -22.74    0.000     -.0471309    -.0396513
   peaceyrs2 |      .00066    .0000371     17.77    0.000      .0005872     .0007328
   peaceyrs3 |   -2.70e-06    1.87e-07    -14.49    0.000     -3.07e-06    -2.34e-06
       _cons |    1.025097    .0978478     10.48    0.000       .833319     1.216875
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      /athrho |  -.6202411      .12041     -5.15    0.000     -.8562403    -.3842418
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          rho |  -.5512958    .0838141                   -.6943155    -.3663855
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2(1) =    23.70   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win jdem, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

Fitting probit model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -747.54181
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -737.38017
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -737.37218
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -737.37218

Fitting selection model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7909.5444
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6998.7095
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6609.7101
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6605.9402
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6605.9372
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6605.9372

Comparison:    log likelihood = -7343.3094

Fitting starting values:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -752.06469
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -711.55213
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -711.46764
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -711.46763

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7318.8458
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -7317.3727
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7317.2488
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -7317.2484

Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      =    585467
                                                Censored obs       =    584382
                                                Uncensored obs     =      1085

                                                Wald chi2(5)       =     33.81
Log likelihood = -7317.248                      Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.    Std. Err.       z    P>|z|      [95% Con f. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
targ_resist  |
   ally_cost |   -.3672484    .1384017     -2.65    0.008     -.6385108     -.095986
    pchaloff |   -.2878355    .1365279     -2.11    0.035     -.5554253    -.0202457
    pchalneu |   -.4390536    .1144318     -3.84    0.000     -.6633358    -.2147713
       c_win |    .2018003    .1187738      1.70    0.089      -.030992     .4345927
        jdem |    -.238817    .1178179     -2.03    0.043     -.4697358    -.0078982
       _cons |    1.622319    .2033915      7.98    0.000      1.223679     2.020959
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
dispute      |
    pchaloff |    .2777099    .0425796      6.52    0.000      .1942554     .3611644
    pchalneu |    .4102013    .0358243     11.45    0.000      .3399869     .4804157
       c_win |   -.0613248    .0322937     -1.90    0.058     -.1246193     .0019697
 ln_distance |    -.403362    .0098733    -40.85    0.000     -.4227133    -.3840106
        jdem |   -.0452361     .036121     -1.25    0.210     -.1160318     .0255597
    s_un_glo |   -.5118548    .0528625     -9.68    0.000     -.6154634    -.4082463
    peaceyrs |   -.0434953    .0018945    -22.96    0.000     -.0472085     -.039782
   peaceyrs2 |    .0006618    .0000369     17.92    0.000      .0005894     .0007342
   peaceyrs3 |   -2.71e-06    1.86e-07    -14.60    0.000     -3.08e-06    -2.35e-06
       _cons |    1.023837     .097917     10.46    0.000      .8319229     1.215751
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      /athrho |  -.5734504    .0765887     -7.49    0.000     -.7235615    -.4233392
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          rho |  -.5178887     .056047                   -.6191105    -.3997398
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2(1) =    52.12   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win s_un_glo, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

Fitting probit model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -747.54181
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -736.26544
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -736.25432
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -736.25432

Fitting selection model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7909.5444
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6998.7095
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6609.7101
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6605.9402
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6605.9372
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6605.9372

Comparison:    log likelihood = -7342.1915

Fitting starting values:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -752.06469
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -713.22461
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -713.10979
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -713.10978

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7320.3134
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -7318.9923
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7318.9018
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -7318.9016

Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      =    585467
                                                Censored obs       =    584382
                                                Uncensored obs     =      1085

                                                Wald chi2(5)       =     30.09
Log likelihood = -7318.902                      Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.    Std. Err.       z    P>|z|      [95% Con f. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
targ_resist  |
   ally_cost |   -.4289086    .1402167     -3.06    0.002     -.7037282     -.154089
    pchaloff |   -.2639074    .1372942     -1.92    0.055     -.5329991     .0051844
    pchalneu |   -.4261721     .115663     -3.68    0.000     -.6528674    -.1994768
       c_win |    .2244302    .1193412      1.88    0.060     -.0094743     .4583346
    s_un_glo |    .1367322    .1471926      0.93    0.353     -.1517601     .4252244
       _cons |    1.502083    .2490547      6.03    0.000      1.013945     1.990221
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
dispute      |
    pchaloff |     .276407    .0425795      6.49    0.000      .1929527     .3598612
    pchalneu |    .4102891    .0358288     11.45    0.000      .3400659     .4805123
       c_win |   -.0617975    .0322879     -1.91    0.056     -.1250807     .0014856
 ln_distance |   -.4035327    .0098723    -40.88    0.000     -.4228821    -.3841834
        jdem |   -.0554874    .0360964     -1.54    0.124     -.1262351     .0152602
    s_un_glo |   -.5203887    .0534023     -9.74    0.000     -.6250552    -.4157222
    peaceyrs |   -.0435451    .0018962    -22.96    0.000     -.0472615    -.0398287
   peaceyrs2 |    .0006627     .000037     17.92    0.000      .0005902     .0007352
   peaceyrs3 |   -2.71e-06    1.86e-07    -14.59    0.000     -3.08e-06    -2.35e-06
       _cons |    1.032959    .0979885     10.54    0.000      .8409047     1.225013
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      /athrho |  -.5600478      .07915     -7.08    0.000      -.715179    -.4049167
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          rho |  -.5080129    .0587232                   -.6139142     -.384148
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2(1) =    46.58   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.
.         * Controlling for the Cold War
.
.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win if cold_war==1, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

Fitting probit model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -505.60285
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -498.40971
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -498.39154
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -498.39154

Fitting selection model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -5345.081
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -4548.5936
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -4237.8613
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -4233.9894
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -4233.9856
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -4233.9856

Comparison:    log likelihood = -4732.3771

Fitting starting values:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -505.99744
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -488.58884
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  -488.5547
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -488.5547

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -4722.5968
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -4722.4758
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -4722.4758

Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      =    406757
                                                Censored obs       =    406027
                                                Uncensored obs     =       730

                                                Wald chi2(4)       =     21.25
Log likelihood = -4722.476                      Prob > chi2        =    0.0003

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.    Std. Err.       z    P>|z|      [95% Con f. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
targ_resist  |
   ally_cost |   -.4607311    .2127224     -2.17    0.030     -.8776593    -.0438029
    pchaloff |   -.3223843     .207444     -1.55    0.120      -.728967     .0841984
    pchalneu |   -.4667128    .1629953     -2.86    0.004     -.7861777    -.1472478
       c_win |    .1867059    .1582206      1.18    0.238     -.1234009     .4968127
       _cons |    1.283949     .274485      4.68    0.000      .7459681     1.821929
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
dispute      |
    pchaloff |    .0197092    .0559793      0.35    0.725     -.0900082     .1294265
    pchalneu |    .5695562    .0453102     12.57    0.000      .4807497     .6583626
       c_win |   -.0497295    .0403611     -1.23    0.218     -.1288357     .0293767
 ln_distance |   -.4948265    .0134407    -36.82    0.000     -.5211697    -.4684833
        jdem |   -.1041129    .0565625     -1.84    0.066     -.2149733     .0067476
    s_un_glo |   -.9185772    .0728843    -12.60    0.000     -1.061428    -.7757266
    peaceyrs |   -.0538046    .0025819    -20.84    0.000     -.0588649    -.0487442
   peaceyrs2 |    .0008181    .0000533     15.36    0.000      .0007137     .0009225
   peaceyrs3 |   -3.44e-06    2.81e-07    -12.24    0.000     -3.99e-06    -2.89e-06
       _cons |    2.105019    .1385443     15.19    0.000      1.833477     2.376561
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      /athrho |  -.3753555    .0832789     -4.51    0.000     -.5385791    -.2121319
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          rho |  -.3586672    .0725657                   -.4919116    -.2090061
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2(1) =    19.80   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win if cold_war==0, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

Fitting probit model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -238.0847
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -235.42862
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -235.42822
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -235.42822

Fitting selection model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -2563.2448
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -2444.4613
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -2235.2663
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -2233.5971
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -2233.5951
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -2233.5951

Comparison:    log likelihood = -2469.0233

Fitting starting values:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -246.06725
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -220.03301
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -219.99876
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -219.99876

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -2519.0771
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -2463.9473  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -2463.2725
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -2454.9309
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -2453.7814
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -2453.4265
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -2453.4163
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -2453.4163

Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      =    178710
                                                Censored obs       =    178355
                                                Uncensored obs     =       355

                                                Wald chi2(4)       =     14.72
Log likelihood = -2453.416                      Prob > chi2        =    0.0053

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.    Std. Err.       z    P>|z|      [95% Con f. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
targ_resist  |
   ally_cost |   -.4611191    .1666238     -2.77    0.006     -.7876958    -.1345424
    pchaloff |   -.4871653    .1856758     -2.62    0.009     -.8510832    -.1232475
    pchalneu |   -.2319958      .17221     -1.35    0.178     -.5695212     .1055296
       c_win |    .3667721    .1722534      2.13    0.033      .0291617     .7043825
       _cons |    2.110739    .2533276      8.33    0.000      1.614226     2.607252
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
dispute      |
    pchaloff |    .9342712    .0798514     11.70    0.000      .7777652     1.090777
    pchalneu |    .2241458    .0614914      3.65    0.000      .1036248     .3446668
       c_win |   -.1091268    .0558825     -1.95    0.051     -.2186545     .0004009
 ln_distance |   -.3068562    .0162794    -18.85    0.000     -.3387633    -.2749492
        jdem |   -.0083971    .0484301     -0.17    0.862     -.1033183      .086524
    s_un_glo |   -.0854088    .0918826     -0.93    0.353     -.2654953     .0946777
    peaceyrs |    -.029346    .0028296    -10.37    0.000     -.0348918    -.0238001
   peaceyrs2 |    .0004606    .0000511      9.01    0.000      .0003604     .0005608
   peaceyrs3 |   -1.84e-06    2.37e-07     -7.77    0.000     -2.31e-06    -1.38e-06
       _cons |   -.1487294    .1570212     -0.95    0.344     -.4564854     .1590266
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      /athrho |  -.9425441    .1505163     -6.26    0.000     -1.237551    -.6475375
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          rho |   -.736389     .068896                   -.8447556    -.5700099
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2(1) =    31.21   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win cold_war, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 cold_war)

Fitting probit model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -747.54181
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -735.21255
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -735.20576
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -735.20576

Fitting selection model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7909.5444
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =  -7009.929
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6609.0139
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6605.2382
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6605.2354
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6605.2354

Comparison:    log likelihood = -7340.4411

Fitting starting values:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -752.06469
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -710.11045
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -710.06126
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -710.06126

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7316.6749
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -7315.2221
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7315.1174
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -7315.1172

Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      =    585467
                                                Censored obs       =    584382
                                                Uncensored obs     =      1085

                                                Wald chi2(5)       =     35.90
Log likelihood = -7315.117                      Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.    Std. Err.       z    P>|z|      [95% Con f. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
targ_resist  |
   ally_cost |   -.4810206    .1406207     -3.42    0.001      -.756632    -.2054092
    pchaloff |   -.2565399    .1371501     -1.87    0.061     -.5253491     .0122694
    pchalneu |   -.4540733    .1153516     -3.94    0.000     -.6801583    -.2279884
       c_win |    .2446614    .1195929      2.05    0.041      .0102636     .4790592
    cold_war |     .187208    .0763853      2.45    0.014      .0374956     .3369203
       _cons |    1.524669    .2123228      7.18    0.000      1.108524     1.940814
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
dispute      |
    pchaloff |    .2707056    .0428774      6.31    0.000      .1866674     .3547438
    pchalneu |    .4140538    .0359753     11.51    0.000      .3435436     .4845641
       c_win |   -.0611685    .0322924     -1.89    0.058     -.1244604     .0021234
 ln_distance |   -.4055808    .0100288    -40.44    0.000     -.4252369    -.3859247
        jdem |   -.0467519    .0363288     -1.29    0.198     -.1179551     .0244512
    s_un_glo |   -.5149818    .0531319     -9.69    0.000     -.6191184    -.4108453
    peaceyrs |   -.0434183     .001897    -22.89    0.000     -.0471364    -.0397002
   peaceyrs2 |    .0006609     .000037     17.87    0.000      .0005884     .0007334
   peaceyrs3 |   -2.71e-06    1.86e-07    -14.56    0.000     -3.07e-06    -2.34e-06
    cold_war |    .0271249    .0235493      1.15    0.249     -.0190309     .0732807
       _cons |    1.023786    .0981287     10.43    0.000      .8314572     1.216115
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      /athrho |  -.5676277    .0769207     -7.38    0.000     -.7183894    -.4168659
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          rho |  -.5136149     .056629                   -.6159107    -.3942869
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2(1) =    50.65   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.
.         * Controlling for the number of allies the target has
.
.                 corr ally_cost ally_count
(obs=1085)

             | ally~ost ally_~nt
-------------+------------------
   ally_cost |   1.0000
  ally_count |   0.2072   1.0000


.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win ally_count, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

Fitting probit model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -747.54181
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -740.11692
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -740.10977
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -740.10977

Fitting selection model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7909.5444
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6998.7095
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6609.7101
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6605.9402
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6605.9372
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6605.9372

Comparison:    log likelihood =  -7346.047

Fitting starting values:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -752.06469
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -713.12969
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -713.04649
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -713.04649

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7320.6268
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -7318.9634
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7318.7657
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -7318.7648
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -7318.7648

Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      =    585467
                                                Censored obs       =    584382
                                                Uncensored obs     =      1085

                                                Wald chi2(5)       =     31.15
Log likelihood = -7318.765                      Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.    Std. Err.       z    P>|z|      [95% Con f. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
targ_resist  |
   ally_cost |   -.4523462     .142887     -3.17    0.002     -.7323995    -.1722928
    pchaloff |   -.2597902    .1359203     -1.91    0.056      -.526189     .0066086
    pchalneu |   -.4534968     .115047     -3.94    0.000     -.6789847    -.2280088
       c_win |     .248519    .1212996      2.05    0.040      .0107762     .4862618
  ally_count |    .0031381    .0029127      1.08    0.281     -.0025705     .0088468
       _cons |    1.632554    .2002368      8.15    0.000      1.240097     2.025011
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
dispute      |
    pchaloff |    .2767047    .0425749      6.50    0.000      .1932595     .3601499
    pchalneu |    .4103672    .0358249     11.45    0.000      .3401517     .4805827
       c_win |   -.0617665    .0322963     -1.91    0.056     -.1250661      .001533
 ln_distance |   -.4034009    .0098722    -40.86    0.000     -.4227501    -.3840517
        jdem |   -.0571888    .0361131     -1.58    0.113     -.1279692     .0135916
    s_un_glo |   -.5090207    .0529434     -9.61    0.000     -.6127879    -.4052535
    peaceyrs |   -.0434597    .0018944    -22.94    0.000     -.0471727    -.0397468
   peaceyrs2 |    .0006612    .0000369     17.89    0.000      .0005888     .0007336
   peaceyrs3 |   -2.71e-06    1.86e-07    -14.57    0.000     -3.07e-06    -2.34e-06
       _cons |    1.023192    .0979413     10.45    0.000       .831231     1.215154
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      /athrho |  -.5896385    .0768142     -7.68    0.000     -.7401915    -.4390855
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          rho |  -.5296356    .0552667                   -.6292609    -.4128862
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2(1) =    54.56   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.
.         * Removing observations where the target and challenger are members of a common defense pact
.
.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win if target_challenger_def==0, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

Fitting probit model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -543.5537
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -533.19463
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -533.15405
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -533.15405

Fitting selection model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -5967.7977
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5297.6566
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -4986.6487
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =   -4983.83
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -4983.8278
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -4983.8278

Comparison:    log likelihood = -5516.9818

Fitting starting values:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -551.74516
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -507.15934
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -507.12522
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -507.12522

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -5493.8205
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5491.5529
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5490.6844
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5490.6744
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -5490.6744

Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      =    528388
                                                Censored obs       =    527592
                                                Uncensored obs     =       796

                                                Wald chi2(4)       =     34.74
Log likelihood = -5490.674                      Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.    Std. Err.       z    P>|z|      [95% Con f. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
targ_resist  |
   ally_cost |   -.4343599    .1538754     -2.82    0.005       -.73595    -.1327697
    pchaloff |   -.4737717     .161912     -2.93    0.003     -.7911133      -.15643
    pchalneu |   -.4937502    .1395278     -3.54    0.000     -.7672197    -.2202807
       c_win |    .2353282    .1333157      1.77    0.078     -.0259658     .4966222
       _cons |    1.734923    .2103283      8.25    0.000      1.322688     2.147159
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
dispute      |
    pchaloff |    .3250076    .0487775      6.66    0.000      .2294054     .4206098
    pchalneu |    .3842722    .0419996      9.15    0.000      .3019545       .46659
       c_win |   -.1135502    .0365497     -3.11    0.002     -.1851862    -.0419142
 ln_distance |   -.4129659    .0115238    -35.84    0.000     -.4355521    -.3903797
        jdem |   -.1556677    .0485981     -3.20    0.001     -.2509184    -.0604171
    s_un_glo |   -.6069243     .061358     -9.89    0.000     -.7271839    -.4866648
    peaceyrs |   -.0434091    .0021494    -20.20    0.000     -.0476217    -.0391964
   peaceyrs2 |    .0006567    .0000415     15.81    0.000      .0005753     .0007381
   peaceyrs3 |   -2.63e-06    2.07e-07    -12.66    0.000     -3.03e-06    -2.22e-06
       _cons |    1.156425    .1087398     10.63    0.000      .9432987     1.369551
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      /athrho |    -.63455    .0841639     -7.54    0.000     -.7995082    -.4695918
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          rho |  -.5611773     .057659                   -.6637617    -.4378694
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2(1) =    52.61   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.
.         * Using a threshold of 5 or higher on the polity2 variable
.
.                 heckprob targ_resist ally_cost pchaloff pchalneu c_win, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem5 s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

Fitting probit model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -747.54181
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -740.12647
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -740.11934
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -740.11934

Fitting selection model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7909.5444
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6996.6715
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6607.6119
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6603.7898
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6603.7868
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6603.7868

Comparison:    log likelihood = -7343.9061

Fitting starting values:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -752.06469
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -713.42444
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -713.32978
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -713.32978

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7318.6358
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -7317.1123
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7316.9505
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -7316.9499

Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      =    585467
                                                Censored obs       =    584382
                                                Uncensored obs     =      1085

                                                Wald chi2(4)       =     29.75
Log likelihood =  -7316.95                      Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.    Std. Err.       z    P>|z|      [95% Con f. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
targ_resist  |
   ally_cost |   -.4026758     .136404     -2.95    0.003     -.6700227    -.1353288
    pchaloff |   -.2695088    .1359828     -1.98    0.047     -.5360302    -.0029875
    pchalneu |    -.435914    .1142415     -3.82    0.000     -.6598233    -.2120047
       c_win |    .2164237    .1180225      1.83    0.067     -.0148961     .4477435
       _cons |    1.631075    .2011837      8.11    0.000      1.236762     2.025388
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
dispute      |
    pchaloff |    .2723211    .0426052      6.39    0.000      .1888165     .3558257
    pchalneu |    .4114616    .0358425     11.48    0.000      .3412116     .4817115
       c_win |   -.0633404    .0323139     -1.96    0.050     -.1266744    -6.39e-06
 ln_distance |   -.4039628    .0098767    -40.90    0.000     -.4233208    -.3846049
       jdem5 |   -.0922027    .0350383     -2.63    0.009     -.1608766    -.0235289
    s_un_glo |   -.5067319    .0528093     -9.60    0.000     -.6102362    -.4032276
    peaceyrs |   -.0435512    .0018956    -22.98    0.000     -.0472664     -.039836
   peaceyrs2 |     .000664     .000037     17.95    0.000      .0005915     .0007365
   peaceyrs3 |   -2.72e-06    1.86e-07    -14.60    0.000     -3.08e-06    -2.35e-06
       _cons |    1.030746    .0978509     10.53    0.000      .8389613      1.22253
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      /athrho |   -.580392    .0761352     -7.62    0.000     -.7296142    -.4311699
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          rho |  -.5229503    .0553139                   -.6228293    -.4062985
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2(1) =    53.91   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.
.         * Excluding the target's cost of damaging its alliance
.
.                 corr ally_cost c_win
(obs=1085)

             | ally~ost    c_win
-------------+------------------
   ally_cost |   1.0000
       c_win |   0.4107   1.0000


.                 heckprob targ_resist pchaloff pchalneu c_win, select(dispute=pchaloff pchalneu c_win ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3)

Fitting probit model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -747.54181
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -741.25762
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -741.25245
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -741.25245

Fitting selection model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7909.5444
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6998.7095
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6609.7101
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6605.9402
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -6605.9372
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -6605.9372

Comparison:    log likelihood = -7347.1897

Fitting starting values:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -752.06469
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -717.92503
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -717.82083
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -717.82082

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -7324.6164
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -7323.6515
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -7323.6126
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -7323.6126

Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      =    585467
                                                Censored obs       =    584382
                                                Uncensored obs     =      1085

                                                Wald chi2(3)       =     20.30
Log likelihood = -7323.613                      Prob > chi2        =    0.0001

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.    Std. Err.       z    P>|z|      [95% Con f. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
targ_resist  |
    pchaloff |   -.2173381    .1363069     -1.59    0.111     -.4844946     .0498184
    pchalneu |    -.409564    .1158643     -3.53    0.000     -.6366538    -.1824742
       c_win |    .0766375    .1092141      0.70    0.483     -.1374181     .2906932
       _cons |    1.285764    .1815431      7.08    0.000      .9299463     1.641582
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
dispute      |
    pchaloff |    .2766926    .0425783      6.50    0.000      .1932406     .3601446
    pchalneu |    .4103103    .0358284     11.45    0.000       .340088     .4805326
       c_win |    -.061827    .0322894     -1.91    0.056      -.125113     .0014591
 ln_distance |   -.4032578    .0098788    -40.82    0.000     -.4226199    -.3838958
        jdem |   -.0562645    .0361575     -1.56    0.120     -.1271318     .0146029
    s_un_glo |   -.5163006    .0528749     -9.76    0.000     -.6199334    -.4126678
    peaceyrs |   -.0435723    .0018968    -22.97    0.000     -.0472899    -.0398547
   peaceyrs2 |    .0006631     .000037     17.91    0.000      .0005905     .0007357
   peaceyrs3 |   -2.72e-06    1.86e-07    -14.58    0.000     -3.08e-06    -2.35e-06
       _cons |    1.028409    .0978581     10.51    0.000      .8366107     1.220207
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      /athrho |  -.5341603    .0753197     -7.09    0.000     -.6817842    -.3865364
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          rho |  -.4885548     .057342                   -.5926781    -.3683704
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2(1) =    47.15   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.
end of do-file

. log close
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  E:\Jesse's Documents\Alliance Restraint\IO Data\FangJohnson&LeedsIOrep\FangJohnson&LeedsIOrep.smcl
  log type:  smcl
 closed on:  21 Jun 2013, 10:47:47
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