**************************************** *Replication file for Scandal Potential* *Forthcoming, BJPS * *Brendan Nyhan, nyhan@dartmouth.edu * **************************************** /* Requirements: -Installing ivreg2 and xtivreg2 in your .ado path -Installing cgmwildboot.ado in your .ado path (see https://webspace.utexas.edu/jc2279/www/data.html) -Using Stata SE (to avoid matsize limitations that cause cgmwildboot.ado to fail on Stata IC) -Using Stata 11 or 12 (datasets in Stata 12 format) */ clear all set mem 100m set matsize 800 set more off /*notes on data*/ use "scandal-potential-replication.dta",clear /*correlations among legislative polarization, percentage of Americans with cable television, the total potential cable news audience (the number of Americans who subscribe to MSNBC, Fox, and/or CNN summed by year), and Americans with Internet access*/ pwcorr dwnomdist2d totalcablepct totalcablenewssubs internet yearreg /*correlation between time trend and opposition approval*/ corr loa yearreg /*House days in session/Senate days in session correlation*/ corr housedays senatedays /*Table 1*/ use "scandal-potential-replication.dta",clear xtset pres week clogit wponset loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays, group(pres) cluster(pres) cgmwildboot wponset yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 divgov yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 loa war yearreg housedays p2 p3 p4 p5,cluster(pres) bootcluster(pres) null(0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0) xtivreg2 wponset npweek loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays peak, robust bw(4) fe i(pres) xtivreg2 wponset loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays (npweek=events) peak, robust bw(4) endog(npweek) first fe i(pres) /*Figure 1*/ use "scandal-potential-replication.dta", clear tsset week set obs 2267 replace divgov=0 if _n>1670 replace npweek=.26+((_n-1671)*.01) if _n>1670 /*95th percentile shock*/ replace war=1 if _n>1670 replace yearreg=27 if _n>1670 replace yearsinoffice1=2.769231 if _n>1670 replace yearsinoffice2=7.66864 if _n>1670 replace yearsinoffice3=2.123623 if _n>1670 replace p2=0 if _n>1670 replace p3=0 if _n>1670 replace p4=0 if _n>1670 replace p5=1 if _n>1670 replace housedays=.7142857 if _n>1670 replace loa=.15+(_n-1670)/100 if _n>1670 & _n<1736 replace yearsbetween1=2.75 if _n>1670 replace yearsbetween2=7.5625 if _n>1670 replace yearsbetween3=2.079688 if _n>1670 replace peak=1 if _n>1670 clogit wponset loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays, cluster(pres) group(pres) predict prob1, pu0 /*assumes fixed effect = 0, otherwise probability of success given one success within group per Stata manual*/ gen label="" replace label="(9/28/03-10/4/03)" if _n==1671 replace label="Approval shock" if _n==1735 gen sim=_n sort sim list prob1 if _n==1671 | _n==1735 twoway (scatter prob1 loa if _n==1671,mlabel(label) mcolor(black) mlabcolor(black) mlabpos(12)) (scatter prob1 loa if _n==1735, mlabel(label) mlabpos(6) mcolor(gs3) xscale(r(0 .84)) xtitle("Opposition approval (lagged)",size(*.8)) yscale(r(0 .6)) msymbol(square) ylabel(0(.2).6,nogrid labsize(*.8)) ytitle("Predicted probability of {it:Post} scandal onset",size(*.8)) xlabel(0 "0%" .2 "20%" .4 "40%" .6 "60%" .8 "80%",labsize(*.8)) xmtick(.1(.2).7) graphregion(fcolor(white) ifcolor(none)) plotregion(fcolor(none) lcolor(white) ifcolor(none) ilcolor(none)) scheme(s2mono) legend(off)) (line prob1 loa if _n>1670,lpattern(solid) text(.07 .8 "(hypothetical)", size(*.8)) text(.56 .16 "Plame", size(*.8))) /*Robustness checks on opposition approval relationship*/ use "scandal-potential-replication.dta", clear *other approval measures not consistently significant clogit wponset lnat divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays, group(pres) cluster(pres) clogit wponset lind divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays, group(pres) cluster(pres) clogit wponset lpp divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays, group(pres) cluster(pres) cgmwildboot wponset yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 divgov yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 lnat war yearreg housedays p2 p3 p4 p5,cluster(pres) bootcluster(pres) null(0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0) cgmwildboot wponset yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 divgov yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 lind war yearreg housedays p2 p3 p4 p5,cluster(pres) bootcluster(pres) null(0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0) cgmwildboot wponset yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 divgov yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 lpp war yearreg housedays p2 p3 p4 p5,cluster(pres) bootcluster(pres) null(0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0) *robustness to lagging by additional calendar month clogit wponset l2oa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays, group(pres) cluster(pres) cgmwildboot wponset yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 divgov yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 l2oa war yearreg housedays p2 p3 p4 p5,cluster(pres) bootcluster(pres) null(0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0) clogit wponset loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays ic, group(pres) cluster(pres) cgmwildboot wponset yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 divgov yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 loa war yearreg housedays p2 p3 p4 p5 ic,cluster(pres) bootcluster(pres) null(0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0) *past events *count bush like reagan, add # of scandals to his replace pastwponset=pastwponset+6 if pres==41 logit wponset loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays pastwponset, cluster(pres) cgmwildboot wponset yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 divgov yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 loa war yearreg housedays pastwponset,cluster(pres) bootcluster(pres) null(0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0) *election year clogit wponset loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays electionyear, group(pres) cluster(pres) cgmwildboot wponset yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 divgov yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 loa war yearreg housedays p2 p3 p4 p5 electionyear,cluster(pres) bootcluster(pres) null(0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0) *years^2 gen yearregsq=yearreg^2 clogit wponset loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays yearregsq, group(pres) cluster(pres) cgmwildboot wponset yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 divgov yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 loa war yearreg housedays p2 p3 p4 p5 yearregsq,cluster(pres) bootcluster(pres) null(0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0) *cable subscribers clogit wponset loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays totalcablepct, group(pres) cluster(pres) cgmwildboot wponset yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 divgov yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 loa war yearreg housedays p2 p3 p4 p5 totalcablepct,cluster(pres) bootcluster(pres) null(0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0) *cable news subscribers clogit wponset loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays totalcablenewssubs, group(pres) cluster(pres) cgmwildboot wponset yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 divgov yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 loa war yearreg housedays p2 p3 p4 p5 totalcablenewssubs,cluster(pres) bootcluster(pres) null(0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0) *Internet clogit wponset loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays internet, group(pres) cluster(pres) cgmwildboot wponset yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 divgov yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 loa war yearreg housedays p2 p3 p4 p5 internet,cluster(pres) bootcluster(pres) null(0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0) *legislative polarization clogit wponset loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays dwnomdist2d, group(pres) cluster(pres) cgmwildboot wponset yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 divgov yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 loa war yearreg housedays p2 p3 p4 p5 dwnomdist2d,cluster(pres) bootcluster(pres) null(0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0) *loa exogeneity checks xtset pres weeksinoffice xtreg oppapp loa l.wponset yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3, cluster(pres) fe xtreg oppapp loa l2.wponset yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3, cluster(pres) fe xtreg oppapp loa l3.wponset yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3, cluster(pres) fe xtreg oppapp loa l4.wponset yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3, cluster(pres) fe xtreg oppapp loa l.wponset divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays, cluster(pres) fe xtreg oppapp loa l2.wponset divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays, cluster(pres) fe xtreg oppapp loa l3.wponset divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays, cluster(pres) fe xtreg oppapp loa l4.wponset divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays, cluster(pres) fe /*Robustness checks on IV results*/ *reduced form onset xtivreg2 wponset loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays events peak, robust bw(4) first fe i(pres) *lagged npweek/events xtset pres weeksinoffice ivreg2 wponset loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays (l.npweek=l.events) peak p2 p3 p4 p5, robust bw(4) endog(l.npweek) /*Figure 2*/ use "scandal-potential-replication.dta", clear tsset week set obs 2579 replace divgov=1 if _n>1670 replace npweek=-1.90+((_n-1671)*.01) if _n>1670 /*7.18 - equivalent to Princess Di's death*/ replace war=0 if _n>1670 replace yearreg=16 if _n>1670 replace yearsinoffice1=3.25 if _n>1670 replace yearsinoffice2=10.5625 if _n>1670 replace yearsinoffice3=3.432812 if _n>1670 replace p2=0 if _n>1670 replace p3=1 if _n>1670 replace p4=0 if _n>1670 replace p5=0 if _n>1670 replace housedays=.4285714 if _n>1670 replace loa=.16 if _n>1670 replace yearsbetween1=2.557692 if _n>1670 replace yearsbetween2=6.54179 if _n>1670 replace yearsbetween3=1.673189 if _n>1670 replace peak=0 if _n>1670 gen label="" replace label="(3/22-3/28/92)" if _n==1671 replace label="News shock" if _n==2579 gen sim=_n sort sim xtset pres week /*fixed effects by hand to get predicted effects out*/ ivreg2 wponset loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays (npweek=events) peak p2 p3 p4 p5, robust bw(4) endog(npweek) predict xb list xb if _n==1671 | _n==2579 twoway (scatter xb npweek if _n==1671,mlabel(label) mcolor(black) mlabcolor(black) mlabpos(12) xscale(r(-2.75 7.5)) xlabel(-2(2)8,labsize(*.8)) xmtick(-1(2)7) xtitle("News pressure",size(*.8)) yscale(r(0 .12)) ymtick(.025(.025).1) ylabel(0(.05).1,nogrid labsize(*.8)) ytitle("Predicted probability of {it:Post} scandal onset",size(*.8)) graphregion(fcolor(white) ifcolor(none)) plotregion(fcolor(none) lcolor(white) ifcolor(none) ilcolor(none)) scheme(s2mono) legend(off)) (line xb npweek if _n>1670,lpattern(solid)) (scatter xb npweek if _n==2579,mcolor(black) mlabpos(6) mlabel(label) msymbol(circle) text(.113 -1.90 "BNL", size(*.8)) text(.0275 7.18 "(hypothetical)", size(*.8))) /*LR tests for weeks polynomials*/ *lrtests - no clustering req. clogit wponset loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays, group(pres) est store A clogit wponset loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 housedays, group(pres) est store B clogit wponset loa divgov war yearreg yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays, group(pres) est store C lrtest A B lrtest A C /*Figures 3a and 3b*/ /*baseline hazard - weeks in office*/ use "scandal-potential-replication.dta",clear tsset week set obs 2088 replace yearsinoffice1=(_n-1670)/52 if _n>1670 replace yearsinoffice2=((_n-1670)/52)^2 if _n>1670 replace yearsinoffice3=(((_n-1670)/52)^3)/10 if _n>1670 replace loa=.297479 if _n>1670 replace divgov=1 if _n>1670 replace war=0 if _n>1670 replace yearreg=16 if _n>1670 replace yearsbetween1=.6153846 if _n>1670 replace yearsbetween2=.6153846^2 if _n>1670 replace yearsbetween3=(.6153846^3)/10 if _n>1670 replace housedays=.3835757 if _n>1670 replace peak=0 if _n>1670 replace npweek=0 if _n>1670 replace events=0 if _n>1670 gen fakeweek=0 replace fakeweek=((_n-1670)/52) if _n>1670 clogit wponset loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays, cluster(pres) group(pres) predict prob1, pu0 /*assumes fixed effect = 0, otherwise probability of success given one success within group per Stata manual*/ twoway line prob1 fakeweek if _n>1670,lcolor(black) ytitle("Predicted probability of {it:Post} scandal onset",size(*1)) xtitle("Years in office",size(*1)) legend(off) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white) ifcolor(white) ilcolor(white)) plotregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white) ifcolor(white) ilcolor(white)) ymtick(.1(.2).5) xmtick(1(2)7) ylabel(,nogrid labsize(*1)) xlab(,labsize(*1)) /*baseline hazard - weeks between scandals*/ use "scandal-potential-replication.dta",clear tsset week set obs 1814 replace yearsinoffice1=(168)/52 if _n>1670 replace yearsinoffice2=((168)/52)^2 if _n>1670 replace yearsinoffice3=((168/52)^3)/10 if _n>1670 replace loa=.297479 if _n>1670 replace divgov=1 if _n>1670 replace war=0 if _n>1670 replace yearreg=16 if _n>1670 replace yearsbetween1=(_n-1670)/52 if _n>1670 replace yearsbetween2=((_n-1670)/52)^2 if _n>1670 replace yearsbetween3=(((_n-1670)/52)^3)/10 if _n>1670 replace housedays=.3835757 if _n>1670 replace peak=0 if _n>1670 replace npweek=0 if _n>1670 replace events=0 if _n>1670 gen fakeweek=0 replace fakeweek=((_n-1670)/52) if _n>1670 clogit wponset loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays, cluster(pres) group(pres) predict prob1, pu0 /*assumes fixed effect = 0, otherwise probability of success given one success within group per Stata manual*/ twoway line prob1 fakeweek if _n>1670,lcolor(black) ytitle("Predicted probability of {it:Post} scandal onset",size(*1)) xtitle("Years since last scandal",size(*1)) legend(off) graphregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white) ifcolor(white) ilcolor(white)) plotregion(fcolor(white) lcolor(white) ifcolor(white) ilcolor(white)) ymtick(.1(.2).5) xmtick(.5(2)2.5) ylabel(,nogrid labsize(*1)) xlab(,labsize(*1)) /*Table 2*/ use "scandal-potential-replication.dta",clear xtset pres weeksinoffice xtivreg2 postcountfront loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 housedays peak npweek yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3, robust fe bw(4) i(pres) xtivreg2 postcountfront loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 housedays peak (npweek=events) yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3,first robust fe endog(npweek) bw(4) i(pres) /*reduced form*/ xtivreg2 postcountfront loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays events peak, robust bw(4) first fe i(pres) /*IV robustness to lagging by week*/ xtivreg2 postcountfront loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 housedays peak (l.npweek=l.events) yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3,first robust fe endog(l.npweek) bw(4) i(pres) /*descriptive stats*/ su postcountfront tsset week reg postcountfront l.postcountfront /*Figure 4*/ use "scandal-potential-replication.dta",clear xtset pres week replace postcountfront=0 if postcountfront==. /*predicted effects with fixed effects added manually again*/ ivreg2 postcountfront loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 housedays peak (npweek=events) yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 p2 p3 p4 p5,first robust endog(npweek) bw(4) i(pres) set obs 2127 replace npweek=.26+((_n-1671)*.01) if _n>1670 /*equivalent to Israel-Lebanon war July 16-22, 2006 - npweek=4.82*/ replace divgov=1 if _n>1670 replace war=1 if _n>1670 replace yearreg=31 if _n>1670 replace yearsinoffice1=6.25 if _n>1670 replace yearsinoffice2=39.0625 if _n>1670 replace yearsinoffice3=24.41406 if _n>1670 replace p2=0 if _n>1670 replace p3=0 if _n>1670 replace p4=0 if _n>1670 replace p5=1 if _n>1670 replace housedays=.7142857 if _n>1670 replace loa=.1 if _n>1670 replace yearsbetween1=.7307692 if _n>1670 replace yearsbetween2=.5340236 if _n>1670 replace yearsbetween3=.0390248 if _n>1670 replace peak=0 if _n>1670 replace events=0 if _n>1670 predict xb gen label="" replace label="(3/18/07-3/24/07)" if _n==1671 replace label="News shock" if _n==2127 gen sim=_n sort sim list xb if _n==1671 | _n==2127 twoway (scatter xb npweek if _n==1671,mlabel(label) mcolor(black) mlabcolor(black) mlabpos(12) xtitle("News pressure",size(*.8)) msymbol(circle) yscale(r(0 .75)) xlabel(0(1)5,labsize(*.8)) xscale(r(-.25 5.5)) ylabel(0(.2).8,nogrid labsize(*.8)) ymtick(.1(.2).7) ytitle("Scandal intensity (front-page {it:Post} articles)",size(*.8)) graphregion(fcolor(white) ifcolor(none)) plotregion(fcolor(none) lcolor(white) ifcolor(none) ilcolor(none)) scheme(s2mono)) (line xb npweek if _n>1670,lcolor(black) legend(off) lpattern(solid)) (scatter xb npweek if _n==2127,legend(off) msymbol(circle) mcolor(black) mlabel(label) mlabpos(2) text(.685 .26 "US attorneys", size(*.8)) text(-.0025 5.26 "(hypothetical)", size(*.8))) /*Front-page WP scandal stories for Online Appendix A*/ use "scandal-potential-replication.dta",clear sort week twoway (line postcountfront week, ytitle("Number of front-page scandal stories ",height(5) size(*.9)) xlabel(1 "1977" 210 "1981" 418 "1985" 627 "1989" 836 "1993" 1044 "1997" 1253 "2001" 1462 "2005" 1671 "2009") xmtick(1 53 105 157 210 262 314 366 418 470 523 575 627 679 731 783 836 888 940 992 1044 1097 1149 1201 1253 1305 1357 1410 1462 1514 1566 1618 ) ytitle("Front-page {it:Washington Post} scandal articles",size(*.9)) ylabel(0(5)15) xtitle("") ymtick(2.5 7.5 12.5) graphregion(fcolor(white) ifcolor(none)) plotregion(fcolor(none) lcolor(white) ifcolor(none) ilcolor(none))) /*monthly approval data for Online Appendix B (based on same underlying data)*/ use "monthly-approval.dta",clear twoway (line loa month,lcolor(gs1)) (line lind month,lcolor(gs5) lpattern(dash)) (line lp month,lpattern(solid) lcolor(gs9)),ytitle("Presidential approval (lagged)",height(2) size(*.9)) xlabel(204 "1977" 252 "1981" 300 "1985" 348 "1989" 396 "1993" 444 "1997" 492 "2001" 540 "2005" 588 "2009") xmtick(216(12)576) ymtick(35(5)85) xtitle("") ylabel(0 "0%" .25 "25%" .5 "50%" .75 "75%" 1 "100%",angle(0)) ymtick(0(.05)1) scheme(s2mono) graphregion(fcolor(white) ifcolor(none)) plotregion(fcolor(none) lcolor(white) ifcolor(none) ilcolor(none)) legend(lab (1 "Opposition partisans") lab(2 "Independents") lab(3 "President's party") rows(1) size(*.8) symxsize(*.6)) /*News pressure for Online Appendix C*/ use "scandal-potential-replication.dta",clear sort week twoway (line orignpweek origweek, lcolor(black) ytitle("Initial evening news segments length (minutes)",height(5) size(*.9)) xlabel(6212 "1977" 7675 "1981" 9131 "1985" 10594 "1989" 12057 "1993" 13513 "1997" 14976 "2001" 16439 "2005" 17896 "2009") xmtick(6212 6576 6940 7304 7675 8039 8403 8767 9131 9495 9866 10230 10594 10958 11322 11686 12057 12421 12785 13149 13513 13884 14248 14612 14976 15340 15704 16075 16439 16803 17167 17531) ylabel(0(5)25,nogrid) xtitle("") graphregion(fcolor(white) ifcolor(none)) plotregion(fcolor(none) lcolor(white) ifcolor(none) ilcolor(none))) /*IV checks for Online Appendix D*/ /*per Sovey and Green p. 9*/ reg events peak predict res,r reg res loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays ttest lagnpweek,by(events) unequal /*table showing disasters and tragedies are random*/ tsset week gen lagwponset=l.wponset gen lagpostcountfront=l.postcountfront preserve collapse (mean) lagwponset lagpostcountfront loa lagnpweek divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays peak,by(events) list restore preserve collapse (sem) lagwponset lagpostcountfront loa lagnpweek divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays peak,by(events) list restore /*First stage IV results for Online Appendix E*/ xtset pres weeksinoffice xtivreg2 wponset loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbetween1 yearsbetween2 yearsbetween3 housedays (npweek=events) peak, robust bw(4) endog(npweek) first fe i(pres) /*NYT for Online Appendix F*/ clogit nytonset loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbwnyt1 yearsbwnyt2 yearsbwnyt3 housedays, group(pres) cluster(pres) cgmwildboot nytonset yearsbwnyt1 yearsbwnyt2 yearsbwnyt3 divgov yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 loa war yearreg housedays p2 p3 p4 p5,cluster(pres) bootcluster(pres) null(0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0) xtivreg2 nytonset npweek loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbwnyt1 yearsbwnyt2 yearsbwnyt3 housedays peak, robust bw(4) fe i(pres) xtivreg2 nytonset loa divgov war yearreg yearsinoffice1 yearsinoffice2 yearsinoffice3 yearsbwnyt1 yearsbwnyt2 yearsbwnyt3 housedays (npweek=events) peak, robust bw(4) endog(npweek) first fe i(pres)